Author: Chris Cichon @TheBigCheeShow
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Whether you play season long, daily fantasy football or both, taking a look at Over/Unders and point spreads is one of the most effective ways that you can put together a winning lineup. When trying to figure out a team total, subtract the spread from the O/U and divide by two. Or you can go to the great fellows over at Rotogrinders who provide the team totals for youhttps://rotogrinders.com/
With that being said, let's look at the Top 4 teams in terms of their projected points and talk about some players to target
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 47.5, NE -9)
The defending Super Bowl champions have the highest projected points this week at 28.75. Now you'll be targeting this matchup if you're playing in a Thursday-Monday contest, and you have to imagine that ownership levels will be higher than usual for this type of contest since people will be inching to get some action tonight.
Tom Brady is the highest priced QB on both DraftKings and Fanduel. You'll never hear me tell you not to play Brady, but I think you can find more value at the QB position so you can load up on position players. But again, play Tom Brady if you so desire, he is going to chuck the football a ton.
You never know who Bill Belichick will feature when it comes to his RBs, but when Evan Silva of Rotoworld Tweets today that an Ex Patriots exec predicted that Chris Hogan will take over at slot WR and Rex Burkhead will be "everyone's fantasy delight"...you have my attention. And when you're the same price as unemployed RBs such as Knile Davis and Ryan Mathews on Fanduel, you have tremendous value (On DK Burkhead is $4400, same price as Alfred Morris so I don't dislike that either in cash games.)
Mentioning Chris Hogan earlier, he won't be a target monster but if he does see an uptick in catches with Julian Edelman out for the year he could be a nice return on value on both sites. I like Brandin Cooks in season long but personally I would rather wait to see how often Brady looks his way in the first game of the year before spending up on him (6th highest priced WR on DK). I'd imagine he'll have decently high ownership levels as well.
Rob Gronkowski is healthy, and that means he's an elite option at TE. Kansas City is one of the most stringent teams against the TE position (only allowed 2 TDs in 2016). Honestly in tournaments on DraftKings I'd rather take a flyer on Dwayne Allen who is just $2700.
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (O/U 48, ATL -7)
Matt Ryan to Julio Jones on DraftKings and Fanduel is a QB-WR stack I will be targeting. It's easier on DraftKings, where Ryan is the 6thhighest priced QB compared to Fanduel where he is the highest (if you're just playing the Sunday-Monday slate). Julio is the 2nd highest priced WR on both sites, but when reaching the 100+ yard mark seven times in a season like last year (including a 300 yard bonkers day against Carolina on October 2nd) and with no toe flare ups we can roll him out the pair out with confidence.
Pro Football Focus has the Bears front seven ranked #28 out of 32 coming into the 2017 season (http://bit.ly/2gHq41i), so I'm fine with paying for Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman who comes in a bit cheaper in tournaments.
If you want a low owned cheap TE, take a look at Austin Hooper who spent the offseason working out with Matt Ryan in order to improve chemistry.
On the opposite side of the ball, I actually like Jordan Howard as a low owned play. The Bears will need to keep the potent Falcons offense off the field as much as possible if they don't want to be getting blown out with ten minutes to go in the third quarter, and the bruiser Howard should be able to get some yardage in between the tackles.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (O/U 47, Pittsburgh -8.5)
Ben Roethlisberger's struggles on the road are well documented, and speaking of game script I can see the Steelers dominating the Browns and not nedding Big Ben to chuck it a bunch of times. He's the highest priced QB on DraftKings in Sunday-Monday slates and the third highest on Fanduel. He is a hard no in cash games, but if you want to pay for him in tournaments I'd imagine his ownership levels won't be THAT high.
Despite the fact that he wasn't in camp all summer and didn't play any preseason does concern me a bit in terms of Le'Veon Bell's workload, but I'm still happy to pay up for him (highest priced RB on DK, 2nd highest on Fanduel). Cleveland's run defense is still horrid and I'd imagine will run the ball a lot when they have the lead.
Antonio Brown kind of goes hand and hand with Ben Roethlisberger. He'll get the targets and he's lethal when he catches the ball, but how many times will Big Ben even need to throw? As the highest priced WR on both sites, I prefer him in tournaments.
Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks (O/U 51, GB -3)
Now Green Bay is the team underlined here because they are the favorite so their projected point team total is higher, but you can target both sides of the football in this game. In fact, I like Seattle's pass offense the most when targeting guys to plug into your DFS lineups mainly because Green Bay's secondary is young and not very good yet.
Russell Wilson is the 6th highest priced QB on DK in the Sunday-Monday slate, technically the 5th highest priced QB on Fanduel because Andrew Luck is out for multiple weeks but is still the 4th highest priced QB on the site. Seattle's offensive line still isn't very good, and with guys like Thomas Rawls still nicked up I feel that Russell will be under duress quite a bit and he'll have to throw.
Enter Doug Baldwin. He's the 10th highest priced WR on DK in the Sunday-Monday slate, same deal on Fanduel. Last time he faced off against Green Bay Baldwin had 11 targets and I'd expect a heavy volume to go his way again. Quinten Rollins will probably cover him and he allowed 71.6% of his targets to be caught last season and he gave up seven TDs.
In cash games I like Paul Richardson for salary relief, who was just named the starter opposite of Baldwin. If you don't elect to use Baldwin, Richardson is a nice source of salary relief on both sites. Again we're trying to exploit this Packers secondary.
Jimmy Graham is the third highest priced TE on both sites and is a fine spend at the TE position.
On the Green Bay side of the football, Davante Adams presents nice value on DraftKings at $5200. If Jeremy Lane is covering him again, maybe we could see a repeat of Adams roasting him just like back in December of last year.
Seattle has a stout run defense, but with Ty Montgomery's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield he could be a nice surprise in tournaments since he'll probably be low owned.