The Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and the Falcons featured on Sunday Night Football has the highest O/U total at 55 this week, but with DraftKings not including the prime time games in their main contests we'll focus on a few other teams this week for a change! Let's take a look at some of the teams with the highest implied team totals coming into Week 7 and who to target for your DFS lineups
New Orleans Saints -5.5 @ Green Bay Packers (O/U 47.5)
We wouldn't normally be targeting the Saints on the road, but with the Packers reeling in post Aaron Rodgers life and with the duo of Ingram and Kamara unshackled by any AP distractions, we can certainly start building our lineups with the help of the New Orleans offense. We'll focus on the two RBs here as those who started the former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama were rewarded handsomely in Week 6. Should you go back to the well? I'm good with it. Green Bay allows 119.8 yards per game on the ground which is 24thout of 32 teams. For those who might be worried about Kamara getting more looks in the passing game: Ingram caught all five of his targets in Week 6's shootout with the Lions compared to Kamara who hauled in all three of his targets. That being said, the rookie from Tennessee could find himself with lower ownership after Ingram earned more touches and DFS points in Week 6. If you need the salary relief (he's $1,100 less on DK, $1K on FD) Kamara goes against a defense that has allowed three receiving TDs to RBs which is tied for the most with a couple of teams and he's not that far removed from his 10 catch performance in London against the Dolphins.
Drew Brees is the highest priced QB on DraftKings in the main slate and is the 4th highest on Fanduel that includeds the SNF & MNF games. Brees has dominated the Pack in his career as a Saint, facing them five times while throwing for 15 TDs and just 1 interception with a near 70% completion percentage. This year, Brees commands an offense that ranks third in offensive DVOA, yet he's thrown over 300 yards once this season. Green Bay's secondary should be getting back CB Kevin King who has cleared concussion protocol as well as Davon House who's been dealing with a quad injury. I'll have some Brees exposure and so should you, but personally I'd rather spend down at the position in the core of my cash lineups and grab someone like Mariota or Dak Prescott.
In your Brees lineups, you should pair him with a pass catcher, and that means it's time to fire up Michael Thomas. FantasyLabs pointed out that Green Bay has had trouble slowing down #1 WRs through six weeks (Thielen 13 targets, 9-97, Dez 8 targets, 5-52-1, AJ Green 13 targets, 10-111-1, Julio 9 targets 5-108) and that they've allowed the most DK points per game to WRs since the beginning of last season. Thomas should face off against Damarious Randall who is the 7th worst CB out of 114 qualified players. Thomas is the 5th highest priced WR on DK at $7.6K & 7th highest on Fanduel, but he's the WR to grab in this offense. Ted Ginn had a nice game last week and Willie Snead is back but still dealing with an injured hamstring. They are more suited for tournaments. Avoid Coby Fleener as the Packers have yet to allow a TD to the TE position through six games.
Dallas Cowboys -6 @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U 47)
Off the Bye week and with Ezekiel Elliott for another week at least, the Cowboys head to Santa Clara where they've got a juicy matchup with the winless 49ers. Dak Prescott will be a very chalky option at QB this week, he sits just behind the aforementioned Drew Brees on DK as the 2nd highest priced QB ($7300) and is the third highest priced on Fanduel between Brady and Matt Ryan ($8400). My colleague on Fantrax Radio's DFS Dudes show John Laub uses the term floor security for Dak when it comes to his rushing ability: Even if he doesn't eclipse 250 yards passing, the fact that he's got two rushing TDs in the last three games helps to predict that the risk of a total fantasy flop is low. The likelihood of that happening against the woeful 49ers is slim: last week Kirk Cousins threw it all over their secondary for 330 yards and a 67.6% completion percentage. The week before that? Jacoby Brissett threw for his lone 300 yard passing game this season. He's not a high upside play by any means but just like Brees you should have some exposure in cash games.
Now it's time to pair Prescott with a pass catcher, and we're talking about another chalk option in Dez Bryant. While Dez hasn't broken out and put up any sort of bonkers numbers any week this season (his high is 98 yards against the Rams in Week 4) he has scored in three of the Cowboys first five games and he's just one of ten WRs to receive at least nine targets per game. Ian Hartitz of FanatsyLabs mentions that 49ers outside CBs Dontae Johnson and Rashard Robinson have contributed to the unit ranking among the five worst defenses in pass DVOA to both the left and right side of the field and Bryant has only lined up in slot 27% of the time so he should be able to put up numbers on the outside.
You want a sneaky play this week that will have low ownership? Cole Beasley. There's a good chance he'll be matched up against K'Waun Williams who was abhorrent against the Redskins and was the worst graded starter on the defense per PFF last week. Beasley is just $100 higher than minimum salary on Fanduel at $4600 and could be a nice sneaky option in GPPs. I believe DK is more wise to his matchup, pricing him at $5K but I'm still good with playing him there. Beasley is second in terms of targets to WRs in this Dallas offense with 26 and has found the end zone twice this season.
Avoid Jason Witten this week. If there is one thing the 49ers do right it's defend against the TE, as they've allowed just 21 receptions in their six losses while surrendering no touchdowns.
Lastly, let's talk about the running game. Ezekiel Elliott is still playing and is someone that I feel comfortable recommending for your DFS lineups this week despite the high price tag (2nd highest on DK at $9K, 3rd on Fanduel at $8.7K). First, let's recognize that Zeke is getting the workload, he's received 22, 21 and 29 carries in each of the past three games respectively, finding the end zone in two of those three games. Second, the 49ers defense have allowed the most receptions (43) in the league to the RB position, three of those going for TDs. Zeke is third on the team with 17 receptions so far. Third, if you believe the Cowboys will have the lead based on the spread in this game, Zeke should be in line to run the clock out and the 49ers are in the bottom half of the league in terms of overall rushing yards allowed. Zeke is a strong play in both cash and tournaments.
Tennessee Titans -6 @ Cleveland Browns (O/U 46)
We love offenses who play against the Browns, especially Tight Ends. So we're going to start with Delanie Walker who comes in as the highest priced player at his position by a large margin on DraftKings at $5800, he's fourth on Fanduel at $5900. No team has allowed more catches to the TE than Cleveland, only two teams have allowed more TDs (5), same with yards receiving (402). Walker saw his second most amount of targets so far this season last week against Indianapolis, and is worth a start in all formats even with his price tag.
If you decide to save $$ at TE, we want to pair someone with Marcus Mariota, who we'll go into more detail next. Eric Decker is the man to target this week on DraftKings where's he's in the bargain bin at $4300 (cheap on FD too at $5100). My colleague on DFS Dudes John Laub mentions that Jason McCourty is a shadow corner and he's been playing decent football and he'll shadow Rishard Matthews. Decker had an uptick of targets last week with nine, catching seven and he'll be lined up either in the slot or Jamar Taylor. Taylor is the 81st ranked corner according to PFF and has a measly 48.2 rating. I love Decker on DK especially too since you need to play 3 WRs and getting him in your lineup allows you to spend up on the top tier guys like AB and Zeke.
Should we play Marcus Mariota this week? I can't reiterate enough how it's not rocket science: targeting offensive players taking on the Browns defense typically will be beneficial to your lineups. Pricing is tight among the QBs but he comes in as the 4th highest priced on DK at $6900, 5th on Fanduel at $8200. Head Coach Mike Mularkey indicated that he's moving around better than he has as he works back from the hamstring injury and it certainly helps in your recovery when you can take baby steps like facing the Browns defense who has allowed 14 TD passes and 131 completions to QBs so far this year. Mariota will probably be chalky but he's a very solid cash game play and you should be pairing him with either Decker or Delanie Walker and if you wanted to pair the three of them together I'm cool with that too.
If you're starting three Titans in your lineup, you're probably not going to have exposure to the running game. However, if you decide you think Tennessee will be up big and slow the game down by just pounding the football on the ground, you'll have to monitor the status of DeMarco Murray who didn't practice Thursday due to a hamstring injury. With a bye week after this game there is some thought he'll rest and be ready to go when the Titans resume play November 5th against the Ravens. Even if he does suit up, I'm probably avoiding as he's gotten no more than 14 carries a game all season.
If DeMarco is a no go, I would suggest getting one lineup with Derrick Henry exposure as he got a season high 19 carries last week vs Indianapolis, breaking one of those for 72 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland does have a decent run defense, allowing a league fewest (along with Denver) 3.0 yards per carry, and they've surrendered ZERO! Rushing touchdowns this year. Again I wouldn't go nuts and Henry isn't involved in the passing game so that hurts his value too, but if he's the only sherrif in town and the Titans go up big I expect him to get a nice workload. Again this is IF DeMarco Murray doesn't play so make sure you're continuing to monitor your Twitter feed on Sunday morning before kickoff.
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