TPC Summerlin: Las Vegas, NV Par 71, 7,255 yards
Defending Champion: Rod Pampling (-20) by two over Brooks Koepka
Primary Stats- Birdie or Better %, Par 4: 400-450, SG: Ball Striking
Secondary Stats- Par 5 SG, GIR
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
Lineup Lock:10:05am EST (9:05 CST, 8:05 MST, 7:05 PST)
I wasn't going to do one, but there are enough questions about the wind. It looks like the calmest winds will be Thursday Morning. It also looks like the heaviest winds (15-20 mph) will be Friday afternoon. The Thursday PM/Friday AM should see consistent 10-15 mph winds. (Credit to Kevin Roth of RotoGrinders)
I don't think it's enough to change lineups. I suppose the safe route would be to play the Thursday PM/Friday AM golfers since they will have consistent winds. But, I am not making any lineup changes based on tee times.
Finally, one guy that I should have mentioned as a FanDuel play is Chesson Hadley. He is 10,000 on DraftKings, but only 6,300 on FanDuel. He was the money leader on the web.com Tour last season and had two wins. In the Fall Swing, he has finished 3rd at the Safeway Open and 2nd at the Sanderson Farms last week. He's a GPP play on DraftKings due to price, but is a must-play on FanDuel at such a low price. Differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
After three weeks of golf in Asia in no-cut events, we go back to a more traditional event in the United States with a cut and plenty of birdies available in Las Vegas. As with most of the Fall Swing fields, this isn't a strong field; but has some names to play and some rookies to possibly consider.
I may have to update this Wednesday night. While we won't have rain in Vegas, it looks like we should see some 15-20 mph winds, with gusts nearing anywhere from 20-25 mph. Both Thursday and Friday morning have calmer winds, with Thursday morning having the calmest winds. Friday afternoon looks to have the strongest winds; the 20-25 mph gusts. This has changed from Monday, so I wouldn't be surprised if an update comes on Wednesday. But if nothing changes, I really don't see one tee time wave having a distinct advantage. Check back Wednesday, but I'm not making lineup changes based on winds.
WGC HSBC Champions Strategy- DraftKings Pricing
I live in Illinois, and when I see a Par 71 course that has winning scores somewhere around -20, I think of the John Deere Classic. The Shriners has a similar feel to it: Both TPC courses, and cuts ranging from -1 to -3. I think birdies and scoring is going to be important this week. GIR and Approach shots have been a big key to success for past winners and Top 10 finishers, so I will rank that as well. I did see Par 5 Scoring pop up. Finally, with a 6 of the 18 holes falling in the 400-450 yard range, I think there is value in looking at that statistic.
There are some mispricings on all three sites this week. DraftKings continues to use some weird pricing, while FanDuel continues to underprice the web.com Tour graduates. I wasn't really impressed by too much in the course history, so I will use it sparingly. However, I think recent form is something to really consider.
Finally, FantasyDraft has really lowered their GPP offerings in this Fall Swing. I may go back there for picks once the regular season picks up. But, for the remainder of the Fall Swing, I will alternate weeks between FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have a preference, please let me know. Onto the picks.
Kevin Chappell (10,200)
Only one write-up in this section, as I think all are ok plays, but I find myself going more balanced. Throw out the Tour Championship, and you see Chappell with a 6th and 12th in the three events prior. In all three of those events, he had 16+ birdies in each event, showing he can score. He doesn't have the best history here, but I think he's a better golfer now than he was two years ago when he finished 62nd. He ranks 7th in this field in Birdie or Better and Par 5 SG, and is 21st in SG: Ball Striking. Chappell only missed four cuts in 2017 and with scoring ability, provides the best value in this 10k+ range in my opinion. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider:
Tony Finau: 4th in Birdie or Better, 5th in Par 5 SG: Was 44% owned last week, will be popular
Webb Simpson: Has gained 30.5 strokes at this event in past four years, second best. Three straight Top 20 finishes
GPP: Finau, Simpson
Ryan Moore (9,400)
I mentioned that Webb Simpson was second in the field in strokes gained at this event: Ryan Moore is first with 34. Moore has a win in 2012, 9th, and 15th the past five years. He is from the Vegas area so he may feel comfortable at home. Recently, he has made six of his last seven cuts (missed cuts prior were due to him returning from an injury layoff) with four Top 25s. Moore ranks 6th in both Par 4 SG: 400-450 and GIR, and is 10th in SG: Ball Striking. He also ranks 23rd in Par 5 SG: and 31st in Birdie or Better. I'm hoping he goes a little underowned due to rough 2017 and people going stars and scrubs. He's one of my favorite plays this week and I don't see myself getting off of him. (Cash and GPP)
Charley Hoffman (9,000)
First off, Hoffman is the winner this week, regardless of what he does in the tournament itself. He has said he will donate any prize money he wins this week to the victims of the Las Vegas shooting. He just happens to be in a good spot as well. In 2017, he has had more Top 10s (six) than missed cuts (four). He is a bit risky coming off three straight missed cuts at this event, but did finish 4th in 2013, and is playing the best golf of his life right now. He does fit statistically: 7th in SG: Ball Striking, 17th in GIR, and 26th in Par 5 SG and Birdies or Better. He's not one I'm going to play in cash, but with his form, will play in tournaments. (GPP)
Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay: Five straight Top 20s, is Top 5 in both GIR and SG: Ball Striking.(Cash and GPP)
Jason Kokrak (8,800)
One of the best things to do in DFS is to overpay for someone, that many view as being higher priced than they should be. This is what I think is true with Kokrak this week. He doesn't have a great history here, only making two of his last five cuts here with 38th being his best finish. However, the stats and form make me interested in him. He has played twice in the Fall Swing, finishing 7th and 17th. I see a decent amount of birdies in his game log, as he's usually between 14 and 18, with an occasional eagle. This is seen with his stats: 6th in Birdies or Better, 9th in GIR, 12th in SG: Ball Striking, and 29th in Par 5 SG. If you like being contrarian and paying up to do so, Kokrak does give nice scoring upside and is your guy this week. (GPP)
Luke List (8,300)
If it's a Fall Swing event, I'm interested in List. He has improved in each of his three starts so far this season: 37th, 13th, and 5th. He had 24 birdies at the CIMB Classic a few weeks back, and has three tournaments where he recorded two eagles. List was 15th in his event debut last year. As usual with List, his stats are what make him worth considering: 1st in Par 5 SG, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking and Birdies or Better, and 4th in GIR. He's too cheap of a price here and I don't care what his ownership is: He's a lock and load in my lineups this week. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider:
Kevin Streelman: Has gained 22 strokes in past five years here, 5th best. Has started Fall Swing 10th and 13th. 8th in GIR, and 23rd in Par 5 SG and SG: Ball Striking
Ryan Armour: More of a FanDuel play, Armour won a week ago but still has good 24 round stats: 5th in GIR and Birdie or Better, Top 25 in every other stat category
GPP: Streelman, Armour (Better on FanDuel)
David Lingmerth (7,400)
I have mentioned that I do use a stat site called Fantasy National for my research. It only includes PGA Tour events, and not Euro Tour events, so Lingmerth's stretch in Europe is not on there. Lingmerth did miss his last cut at the Italian Open, but prior to that, finished 4th and 20th. He had 22 and 16 birdies in those two events, which are birdie numbers I like to see. The risk is that he hasn't made a cut here in three tries. It's a potentially low-owned risk on a player that was 10k at one point this summer. Tournament only for Lingmerth. (GPP)
Vaughn Taylor (7,300)
Everyone is going to flock to another Taylor in this price range: Nick Taylor (really good recent form, you can use him if you like). However, I prefer Vaughn to Nick this week. He did miss the cut at the Safeway, but had a nice 10th last week at the Sanderson Farms. Nothing stands out with course history or even statistically (all stat ranks are between 14 and 33), but he just comes across as a solid play this week. Probably lacks some upside in GPPs, but is consistent enough to use in cash games. (Cash)
Others to Consider:
Russell Knox: Knox is your course history play here, ranking third in the field with 23 strokes gained here. Rough 2017 but talent and history in his favor.
Seamus Power: 18th last week, ranks 2nd in Par 4 SG: 400-450 and 10th in Birdie or Better. Would like him more if in low 7k range vs high 7k range
Tom Lovelady: A web.com Tour graduate, fairly priced on DK; bargain on FanDuel. Lovelady has finished 43rd and 18th in two starts. Top 30 in Ball Striking, GIR, and Par 5 SG
Cash: Lovelady (especially on FD)
GPP: Knox, Power, Lovelady
Rory Sabbatini (6,700)
You could've given me 30 guess as far as who would end up #1 on my stats model this week, and Sabbatini would not have come up. Sabbatini was 25th here two years ago, his last start here. He made a late charge to make the Playoffs, but ran out of steam once in the playoffs. If you look at his game log, you see some 20+ birdie tournaments and eagles sprinkled in. Probably a big reason he ranks #1 in this field in Birdies or Better. Sabbatini also ranks 3rd in Par 4 SG: 400-450, 4th in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in Par 5 SG, and 20th in GIR. Only being 100 above the minimum, I think Sabbatini is a nice value with scoring upside in all formats. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider:
Brandon Hagy: Was 18th last week at the Sanderson Farms, and is a bomber. 3rd in Birdies or Better and 6th in Par 5 SG.
John Huh and Alex Cejka: Both have missed their last three cuts, but both have over 20 strokes gained at The Shriners in the past five years. I prefer Cejka but could play both
Cash: Hagy is OK
GPP: Hagy, Cejka, Huh
If something drastically changes with winds, I will post an update on here: Probably will not be emailed. Also, if playing football, I'm filling in for Michael Waldo this week on the National Fantasy Pregame Show videos. Click here to like the page on Facebook: Videos should come out Thursday or Friday. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.