Sheshan International GC: Shanghai, China Par 72, 7,261 yards
Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-23) by seven over Henrik Stenson and Daniel Berger
Primary Stats- Birdie or Better %, Par 5 SG, Greens in Regulation (GIR)
Secondary Stats- Par 4 SG, SG: Ball Striking
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
Lineup Lock: 7:00pm EST Wednesday (6:00pm CST, 5:00pm MST, 4:00 PST)
The third and final event of the Asian portion of the Fall Swing is a World Golf Championship event in China. Like the past two events in Asia, this is a 78-man field with no cut. Which also means another tournament that starts on Wednesday night and end very early Sunday morning, while most of us are sleeping. I have noticed some overlay the past two weeks on the sites, particularly Fantasy Draft. They have scaled back their contest sizes this week. Regardless, it never hurts to check the lobby right before lock to see if any overlay is available.
Looks to be pretty nice weather: 70 degrees and 10 mph winds. I don't see any advantage to tee times based on weather.
If you are feeling adventurous on DraftKings, they are offering the alternate field event on the PGA Tour: The Sanderson Farms. Tournament sizes are smaller and the field isn't all that great. This is a traditional field with a cut and times friendly to those of us in North America. I am not sure if I will throw a lineup into that or not, but I won't be writing an article or files on that. If you are playing and would like my thoughts on a player, tweet me and I'll be happy to give you my thoughts.
WGC HSBC Champions Strategy- Fanduel Pricing
When I looked back at previous events, I see some of the same stats as we've seen so far in the Fall Swing, that have stood out. Ball Striking and Par 5 scoring were big stats for those who finished in the Top 10. This is why I'm emphasizing birdies and Par 5 Scoring.
This is a pretty good field, as we get some of the bigger names on both the PGA Tour and European Tour playing. I want to look at some of those Euro Tour players, as I think the casual golfer will overlook them. We also see some names that have been priced in the Top 10 highest priced golfers, now being closer to 25th. It's not a bad tournament to leave some salary on the table.
Jon Rahm (9,300)
Rahm finished the PGA Tour season with four Top 7 finishes and was one of the five players who had a chance to win the FedEx Cup going into the Tour Championship. He has played in Europe the past two weeks, finishing 15th two weeks ago, and missing the cut last week. I hope that missed cut keeps people off of him. His stats though are incredible over the past 24 rounds. In every stat I'm looking at this week, he ranks in the Top 6 in this field, ranking 1st in Par 4: 450-500 yards. There isn't a ton of value in the bargain range so I don't mind saving some money off of DJ and starting with Rahm. (Cash and GPP)
Paul Casey (9,200)
Casey continues to be one of the most consistent golfers in the world. He has six Top 10s in his past 10 starts, and no finish worse than 33rd in that span. It shouldn't surprise you then that Casey has three Top 25s at this event, gaining 17.4 strokes on the field in these past three appearances; seventh best in this field. Top 12 in every stat category, including 1st in Par 4: 450-500, 2nd in Ball Striking, and 4th in Birdies or Better. Another good spot to start a lineup with or play as your second highest priced golfer, Casey is a pretty safe play with upside to go Top 5. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider: Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka
Cash: All 4 players
GPP: All 4 players
Tony Finau (8,000)
Finau started strong a week ago in Korea, but struggled in the middle rounds to end up 26th. He had finished 2nd, 7th, and 7th the three events prior so I don't have a problem going back to him. As usual with Finau, the stats help make the case for him: 3rd in Par 5 SG, 7th in Birdies or Better, and 8th in Par 4 SG: 450-500 yards. Finau is one player that I may fade if I see him starting to get real popular, and will have some pivots down below in this section. But if he's around 25% or lower, I'll play him in tournaments. (GPP)
Ross Fisher (7,200)
He may be a little more popular due to course history folks, but I hope he goes overlooked by the casual player since he primarily plays in Europe. Fisher has finished 3rd and 6th the past two years at this event, and has gained 24.9 strokes on the field in those two years; third best in the entire field over the life of the event. Fisher is also in terrific form, coming of back-to-back 2nd place finishes on the European Tour, making 50 birdies total in those two tournaments. He's a ball striker, ranking 5th in GIR and 8th in Ball Striking. He's a bargain here at 7,200 on FanDuel and is in play in all formats. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider: Daniel Berger, Pat Perez, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar
Cash: Rose, Perez, Kuchar
GPP: Berger, Rose, Perez, Kuchar
Lucas Glover (6,200)
Glover has gotten off to a nice start in the fall swing, with a 30th, 15th, and 7th so far. Glover has had at least 15 birdies in all three of these events, leading to good fantasy point productivity. Statistically, Glover is 5th in Par 4 SG: 450-500, 8th in GIR, and Top 25 in every other category I look at this week. For whatever reason, he's not available on Fantasy Draft, but is a nice value on FanDuel with his recent form. (Cash, GPP Playable)
Thorbjorn Olesen (6,200)
Another Euro Tour player that really should go overlooked, Olesen has had some success at this event in the past. Olesen has a 6th and 19th his past two appearances, and ranks 9th in strokes gained at this tournament with 16 strokes gained. His recent form is ok; nothing special. However, he did finish in a tie for 10th at the last WGC event back in August. Nothing stands out with his stats, so I'm going to rely on tournament history here in tournaments for the man from Denmark. (GPP)
Others to Consider: Schwartzel, Haas, Reavie, Jordan Smith
Cash: Haas, Schwartzel
GPP: Schwartzel, Reavie, Smith
5,400 and Below Tier
Ryan Fox (4,700)
I really don't think you have to go into this tier, but if you're looking for a low-owned player with birdie upside, I think Fox has some potential. His form is not great, but he has shown some Top 10 upside on the Euro Tour this year, having 5 Top 10s. I do see a 22 birdie outing and 25 birdie outing in his DraftKings game log. But, I do see a lot of bogies as well, so there is risk. He does rank 12th in Par 4 SG: 450-500. He may be a little more viable on Fantasy Draft with one position not counting (also more expensive there compared to the other two sites), but as a punt, I'm not completely opposed to it. (GPP)
Others to Consider: Jhonnatan Vegas (GPP)
This is the best field we will see in the Fall Swing, and may attract some more casual players because of that. Do not be afraid to play one of these Euro Tour players that aren't as well known as the American golfers. Remember about the Wednesday lock time this week: the last time we will have this in the Fall Swing. As always, there should be some NFL money chasing PGA so hopefully, these games are a little soft. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.