We're nearly a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season, which means we now have a pretty good sample of data when it comes to most usage statistics. At Fantistics MyFantasyFix, our target market share and red zone market share data are two of our most popular tools. While many of the players found on these leaderboards may seem obvious to fans who pay close attention, it's the small and unexpected things that pop up on these lists that make them so valuable to our subscribers.
Below is a sample of some of the data we use in our premium written analysis on MyFantasyFix (which just got a price cut down to $69.99 for a season pass!). The following statistics focus on individual player's targets (wide receivers, tight ends, or running backs) and is ranked based on that player's percentage of their team's overall target market share. In other words, these are the players that see the highest percentage of their team's total passing targets. This data is especially important when you're building lineups because it gives you a better indication of how a given offense utilizes their players. Similarly, when building a tournament lineup and chasing an implied point total, using these market share information can you focus in on specific players.
Target Market Share Thoughts:
- While Antonio Brown (PIT) checks in with an impressive 45 targets on the season with the 3rd highest market share of targets, his matchup is inherently poor. As you can see, the Jaguars are allowing just 147 passing yards per game and opposing teams are targeting their wide receivers just 16.5 times per game. Taking his current target market share into account and assuming the Jaguars current averages hold, Brown can be expected to only see 5 targets this week. It's going to be tough for Brown to return value on his $8,800 price tag on FanDuel and $8,400 price on DraftKings with that level of usage.
- Keep in mind players for Miami and Tampa Bay have only played three games, so their total targets may seem abnormally low in relation to the other player on this chart. Nonetheless, Jarvis Landry (MIA) and Devante Parker(MIA) combine for 56% of the Miami's total target market share and they're facing a Tennessee defense that has allowed the second-most targets to wide receivers this year.
- The list contains two tight ends - Zach Ertz (PHI) and Charles Clay (BUF). Given their high involvement on their team's offenses, both make for strong cash game plays on a weekly basis because their high targets also give them a high floor.
- QB Marcus Mariota (TEN) will be a game time decision with a hamstring injury, but his top WR Rishard Matthews continues to dominate the team's targets with rookie WR Corey Davis out. As we mentioned in our premium content this week, Matthews also ranks among the league leaders in passing attempts (and receptions) of 15 yards or more, which is one indicator of a strong tournament option. A high number of targets with a high percentage of those going for big plays is an excellent GPP combination.
While target market share is extremely important in cash games, we need touchdowns in tournaments. Players who see the greatest number of red zone touches obviously tend to have the highest probability of scoring a touchdown. Below are the leaders in red zone opportunities (defined as red zone carries and red zone targets).
Red Zone Market Share Thoughts:
- Unsurprisingly, running backs dominate the list above, although Larry Fitzgerald (AZ) and Chris Hogan (NE) do make the list. Hogan and the rest of the Patriots offense obviously didn't work out this week, but we are high on Fitzy in heading into Sunday.
- Among the highest usage running backs who dominate their team's red zone market share AND lead in conversion rates, Ezekiel Elliott (DAL), Todd Gurley (LAR), Leonard Fournette (JAC), and Kareem Hunt all check those boxes and all lead the way in our projections for Week 5. Anytime you have a player seeing 3 or more red zone chances a game with a conversion rate near 30%, that player has an excellent shot at scoring touchdowns on a weekly basis.
- Interestingly, both of the players averaging more than 5 opportunities per game ( Le'Veon Bell (PIT) and Carlos Hyde (SF) also rank among the bottom of the sample in red zone conversion rates. Some of that is natural (i.e. if a running back doesn't punch it in around the goal line on first down, it's likely the team will go back to that running back again on second down, effectively raising that player's red zone opportunities while lowering his conversion rate), but it does remain important for a player to be efficient around the goal line in order for him to continue getting the scoring opportunities moving forward.
Understanding and using market share information is vitally important to the lineup construction process. As a premium subscriber, you'll gain access to every individual market share percentages for targets and red zones updated each week. To try out a free trial of our premium content, click here.