It's time to win in Week 6 with the help of Las Vegas Totals! Let's take a look at the teams with the highest implied total this weekend based on the O/U total of their respective game.
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons -13 (O/U 47)
The defending NFC Champions host the hapless Miami Dolphins offense and although the game does not have the highest O/U total of the slate, the Falcons have the highest implied team projected total at 29.25. While the aforementioned Fish offense might not be lighting up any scoreboards, their defense hasn't been all that bad, surrendering the 8thleast amount of yards per game at 309.5. Facing QBs like Matt Cassel last week helps their numbers but this is a unit that can be exposed with a great passing attack which the Falcons certainly feature.
All that said, from a pricing standpoint I'm going to be fading Matt Ryan for the most part as his price is too high if you want to fit other studs in your lineup (4th highest priced QB on DK, 5th on Fanduel). Ryan has thrown for multiple TD passes just once this season, and the same applies for 300+ yard games.
Julio Jones was limited in practices Wednesday and Thursday, but he is expected to play after suffering a hip flexor injury in the week 4 matchup with Buffalo. Another guy whose price tag is too rich for my blood as he's the 2nd highest WR on DK at $8300 and third on Fanduel at $8400.
Mohamed Sanu won't play due to a hamstring injury he suffered in that same Bills game, so it's time to get Taylor Gabriel in our lineups. Rotoworld's Evan Silva pointed out that Gabriel played just 59% of snaps in that contest, but went 3/82/1 on 79% of snaps when Sanu missed in Week 14 of last year. Gabriel's $4600 pricetag on DK and $5800 on Fanduel will be worth it if he connects with Ryan on one big play as the speedster is accustomed to doing.
If you want to pair a pass catcher with Gabriel, I'm good with Austin Hooper who saw a season high seven targets in the Falcons loss to the Bills. The Dolphins have allowed 28 receptions in four games vs the TE and have surrendered two scores. He's got a nice price tag on both sites ($4800 on Fanduel, $3500 on Draftkings)
The RB position is site specific, as I really like Tevin Coleman at just $5,000 on the full point PPR DraftKings. Coleman hauled in a season high four receptions for 65 yards on six targets in Week 4, and in four games Miami has surrendered 25 receptions to the RB position. On Fanduel I still like Coleman although for the same price I'd probably prefer a guy like Mark Ingram or if you drop down $100 you can grab the ever popular Alvin Kamara. Freeman is certainly someone to consider as well if game script goes according to plan and the Falcons grab a comfortable lead they should run the ball a bit and Freeman will likely get the bulk of the load. I anticipate people spending up on DK to grab Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley so you could potentially get lower ownership for a guy who consistently produces and has gotten at least one rushing touchdown in every game this year. Freeman is the fourth highest priced RB on Fanduel at $8500 but I'm still cool with getting him in your lineup there in either format.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins -11 O/U -46.5
Just like the Atlanta Falcons, the Redskins are fresh off their bye week as a double digit favorite at home in a very favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint as the 49ers have allowed the 5th most yards through the air.
Kirk Cousins has been efficient to start the 2017 season, throwing seven touchdown passes and just 1 interception through four games. He only eclipsed the 300+ yard passing mark once this season, but this is the week where he should get #2 on the year. San Francisco's run defense isn't too bad, allowing 3.6 yards per attempt which is good for 6th best in the NFL and the Redskins running game hasn't exactly blown up like Leonard Fournette in the Steel City, so to me this will be a Cousins game where he chucks the football a ton. I'm playing Captain Kirk in cash games and his price will allow you to get studs in your lineup, especially on Fanduel where he's the 8th highest priced QB. Cousins comes in as the 5th highest priced on DK and I'm still cool using him there as well.
Now it's time to pair Cousins up with a WR, who should you choose? He could be considered a fantasy disappointment the first quarter of the season, but it's time to go back to the well with Terrelle Pryor. The newcomer to the Redskins offense got lucky when he didn't get an offensive PI call against Marcus Peters in Week 4 in the end zone or else he'd be a definitive disappointment so far, but this is Sunday at FedEx is a great spot for Pryor to get going and he's priced appropriately at $5700 on DK and $6800 on Fanduel. Pryor leads the Redskins in targets with 24, three more than RB Chris Thompson and 5 more than both Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder. RotoWorld's Evan Silva points out that the 49ers outside QBs Rashad Robinson and Dontae Johnson are graded by Pro Football Focus as #104 and #108 respectively among 109 qualifiers. Pryor probably won't have too high of ownership but he's a solid play in both cash and tournaments.
I mentioned Chris Thompson who you can certainly pair with Pryor and Cousins if you want solid exposure. The 49ers might be decent in between the tackles, but they've allowed 35 receptions and 300 yards in the air to RBs in five games, surrendering two touchdowns. Thompson's 21 receptions leads the Redskins backs by a large margin and he leads the team with 235 yards receiving. Let's not forget he's got two rushing touchdowns along with two receiving touchdowns and carries just a $5000 salary on Draftkings and is $6,000 on Fanduel. He'll be in most of my lineups.
There is too much of a target share among the other WRs and Jordan Reed has admitted he's not 100%, so I think those are the 3 Washington guys you should be looking at. Even if Reed was 100% I wouldn't play him as the 49ers are actually good at something-stopping the TE. San Francisco has surrendered just 14 receptions to the position for 107 yards in five games, and Reed is the 3rd highest priced TE on DraftKings and Fanduel. If you want to play him in a tournament...hey it's a free country. But I sure wouldn't.
New England Patriots -10 @ New York Jets O/U 47.5
Every week seemingly I write about the defending Super Bowl champions, and why wouldn't I? The Pats have the third highest average in point total this year at 29.6, lead the league in passing offense at 419.4 yards per game, and the GOAT Tom Brady is fourth in the NFL in completion percentage and tied for third in passing TDs at 11.
Let's start with the Patriots QB, who's the highest priced at his position once again coming in at $9500 on Fanduel, $8300 on DraftKings. First things first, a lot of people are talking about the number of times Brady's been sacked this year, and he's dealing with an AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. At 40, no matter how great his vegan diet and sumo wrestling preparation is, there are only so many times he can be knocked to the ground before he resembles a real life human. Good news for him however, is that he's taking on the Jets who have just 7 sacks through 5 games, which is the 2nd worst in the NFL. With time Brady can tear apart this defense, and I'm fine with playing him once again in both cash and tournaments even with his expensive price tag.
Time to pair Brady with a pass catcher, and just like the Redskins I'm going with a running back that catches passes and comes at a value: James White. Only Chris Hogan has more targets than White (37 compared to 35) and White is second on the Pats in carries with 20 through five games. The Jets allow the NFL's fourth most receiving yards to RBs with 293, and with his tag at $5200 on the full point PPR DraftKings he's good to go in cash and tournaments. At $5400 he's still a steal on Fanduel as he's priced the same as guys like Isaiah Crowell and Jamaal Charles, I think you know which direction we should go in if that's all the money you have left.
I mentioned Chris Hogan as the leader in targets, I'm good with getting him in your lineups as well as he's the 9th highest priced WR on DK and Fanduel. In Silva's aforementioned article before he talked about how Brandin Cooks will likely be shadowed by Morris Claiborne who I like to personally avoid if possible. Hogan more than doubles his teammates in terms of receiving TDs with 5 so far this year. Danny Amendola has seen 15 targets in the last two games and if you need some savings he's $1400 less on both DK and Fanduel and should have lower ownership if you're playing tournaments. Due to his price I'm not playing Brandin Cooks personally, but I won't knock ya if you take a shot in tournaments.
I'm not playing either Dion Lewis or Mike Gillislee, and won't be spending up for Rob Gronkowski either. Gronk is one of the few players in the league that's matchup proof but his price tag is always on the more expensive end and if the Pats go up big will they let him bro out on the sideline? Who knows, but in five games the Jets have allowed just 204 yards to the TE position through the air and two touchdowns, so I'll get my Pats exposure with Brady/White/Hogan and call it a day.