Course: El Camaleón: Playa Del Carmen, México Par 71, 6,987 yards
Defending Champion: Pat Perez (-21) by two over Gary Woodland
Primary Stats- Birdie or Better %,GIR, SG: Ball Striking
Secondary Stats- Par 5 SG, Par 4 SG: 400-450, Par 3 SG
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified. (Stats from the Shriners not included)
I felt the need to do an update due to myself having a couple of additional golfers in my lineups that I didn't write about in the original article. The only weather change is that it looks like Friday could be a windier day than initially expected, with 10-15mph all day. Still don't see any advantage to one tee time wave. I have two addtional golfers that are in my lineups.
1. Ryan Moore: 5th on Fanduel, but 14th on DraftKings and 17th on FantasyDraft. Does have a Top 25 in his only appearance here. 7th in Par 4 SG, 10th in GIR, and 13th in SG: Ball Striking. No worse than 32nd in in any other stat category. Also, looks to be going a bit under owned, which is attractive to me, considering some guys are going to be more popular than I may have initially expected (Kokrak, Hadley, List, Armour, McDowell)
2. Zach Johnson: He's never played here, and hasn't played in the Fall Swing. But, Johnson is still a top golfer that does well on short courses. 2nd in Par 4 SG and 30th in GIR. Didn't have his best 2017 but some time off may do him some good. In a group with Howell, Woodland, and Reavie on DraftKings. On FanDuel, could go a bit overlooked with Perez only 500 higher and many trying to get to Fowler, so they won't be able to afford Johnson. Probably more of an ownership and course fit type of play than stats and form.
Lineup Lock: 7:00am EST (6:00 CST, 5:00 MST, 4:00 PST)
The 2nd to last event of the Fall Swing, the Tour takes a trip to Mexico for the OHL Classic. This is not a strong field or even a full field, with only 129 players.
Sunny, chance of rain each day. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts potentially up to 15 mph. Nothing looks too concerning here.
Tournament Strategy- FanDuel Pricing
The first thing to know about FanDuel pricing: They still are not pricing any rookies accurately. If a player was on the web.com Tour last year and earned their card, they are very cheap. It's a good strategy to target one or two of them as not only could they go low owned, but it will also open up salary to fit some of the higher priced players into your lineups.
The course is a resort course, meaning it will play pretty easy. The cut is usually around -1 or -2, so as usual in this Fall Swing, Birdies or Better is a key stat to consider. Approach and GIR do rank important here as well, with driving being somewhat important. This is why I will use Ball Striking (Drive + Approach). The only new stat this week is Par 3 SG. When looking back at past Top 15 players, they all tended to be somewhere between -3 and -5 on the Par 3s for the week.
Finally, I will have a video on The National Fantasy Pregame Show (Click Here) that should come out on Tuesday. I will have some plays on the video, and will notify you here which players will be on that video. Onto the picks.
Rickie Fowler (10,300)
We don't get too many Top 10 golfers in the world playing in the fall swing events that aren't a World Golf Championship. So it's nice to see Rickie play. It also means that he will probably be popular for that reason. He hasn't played here in the past five years and after some time off, we don't know how he will play after struggling in the Tour Championship. Mayakoba is a little easier than East Lake was. Fowler is 2nd in Birdies or Better, 8th in Par 4 SG: 400-450, and 18th in GIR. Play him in all formats, but consider a fade in tournaments, as he should be quite popular and may even be over 50$ on FanDuel. (Cash and GPP)
Pat Perez (9,300)
See video on The National Fantasy Pregame Show (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider:
Gary Woodland (9,000): Runner-Up last year in his debut, is 1st in GIR and 3rd in Ball Striking. 18th last week at the Shriners. (Cash and GPP)
Charles Howell III (7,900)
Howell has good current form and a good course history. First, his form: 19th and 15th the past two tournaments. He has traditionally played well in the Fall Swing and on the West Coast, which we will see in January and February. His history at Mayakoba is outstanding: Two Top 10s and Two Top 20s in his past five events here. His stats aren't great, but that doesn't take into effect his 15th place finish last week. I'll rely on course history and form for this pick. (Cash and GPP)
Graeme McDowell (7,700)
A former champion here, McDowell is coming off of a nice week last week at the Shriners, finishing 10th. The 2015 champion finished 24th here a year ago and has gained 19 strokes on the field in this event the past two years, 5th best in the field. Like Howell, nothing statistically stands out but he is 13th in Par 4 SG: 400-450. This is a nice price on him, but I worry about potential ownership. If he is getting popular, I will pass. Regardless, I think he's a solid cash game play. (Cash, GPP if not above 10-15% owned)
Others to Consider:
Chesson Hadley (7,400): See Video (Cash and GPP)
Jason Kokrak (6,900)
Kokrak has been a solid play so far during this Fall Swing, finishing 17th, 7th, and 20th. Kokrak has also enjoyed Mayakoba, finishing 15th, 16th, and 17th the past three years. In that span, he has gained 18.2 strokes, 6th best in the field. His stats are great: 1st in Par 3 SG, 6th in Birdies or Better, 8th in Ball Striking, and 10th in GIR. He's a bargain on FanDuel compared to the other two sites, so use him here with confidence. (Cash and GPP)
Stewart Cink (6,900)
Cink has had a great 2017, posting numerous Top 25s, including a 13th at the CIMB Classic. He followed that up with a 33rd. Cink is not an exciting play but he's consistent and rarely hurts your team. Cink was 15th here last year, which fits his profile. He does his the main stats I'm looking at: 3rd in GIR, 9th in Ball Striking, and 30th in Birdies or Better. I like him better for cash than tourneys, but if you want to play him, FantasyDraft is where he is the best bargain. However, he can be played both here and on DraftKings. (Cash)
Others to Consider:
Luke List (6,900): See Video
Russell Knox (6,800): 2nd and 3rd the past two years, leads field with 38 strokes gained here the past five years.
Seamus Power (6,200): 3/3 in made cuts, 4th in Par 4 SG: 400-450 and 11th in Birdies or Better.
Austin Cook (5,600): Top 25 in both events in Fall Swing, Top 30 in every stat category I'm looking at this week, Really nice value on FanDuel
Cash: List, Cook, Power
GPP: List, Knox, Cook
5,500 and Under Tier
Nick Taylor (5,500)
Taylor has really thrived in the Fall Swing with a Top 10, two other Top 25s, and his worst finish being 32nd. He has gained over 20 strokes the past six weeks, fourth in this field. Taylor did finish 15th here a year ago. The knock is that his stats aren't great: 30th in Par 3 Strokes Gained being his best stat. But, those stats weren't great last week or the week before and it didn't matter. At this cheap price, Taylor is a good last man on your roster. (Cash and GPP)
Brice Garnett (5,000)
See Video (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Others to Consider:
Ryan Armour (5,400) Finished 20th coming off a win the week prior. 4th in GIR, 5th in Birdies or Better, and 8th in Par 5 SG.
John Huh (4,900) Won in 2012: Top 30 in three of next four years after win. 4th in SG at this course with 25
Jason Bohn (4,800) Not in great form, had three straight Top 10s at Mayakoba before a 35th last year. 2nd in SG here with 36.8
GPP: Armour, Huh, Bohn
Lots of options to consider this week. Only one event after this until January, so if you haven't tried golf, get a start now before the main season begins in early to mid January. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.