Seaside Course: Sea Island, GA Par 70, 7,005 yards
Defending Champion: Mackenzie Hughes (-17) in Playoff over Camilo Villegas, Billy Horschel, Blayne Barber, and Henrik Norlander
Primary Stats- Par 4 SG: 400-450 (9 Holes), SG: Putting, GIR
Secondary Stats- SG: Approach, SG: Ball Striking, Driving Accuracy
Timeframe: Past 36 Rounds unless specified.
Lineup Lock: 7:00am EST (6:00 CST, 5:00 MST, 4:00 PST)
The final event until January, the RSM Classic goes to Georgia to end the year. There may be some other events (Hero Classic) but that is an 18-man field so not sure if there will be DFS offerings for that.
70 degrees, winds max out at 10 mph with no gusts and no rain. I don't see any tee time advantage to be had as of now.
2018 Golf Package
This will return to being a Premium product in mid-January, with the Sony Open in Hawaii. We are finalizing our price points and what format this article will be in. I do plan on continuing the video section on The National Fantasy Pregame Show, so you will get four golfers each week, even once this goes Premium.
Tournament Strategy- DraftKings Pricing
This is a Par 70 course, so that means only two Par 5s, and 12 Par 4s. Nine of the twelve Par 4s are between 400-450 yards. I am emphasizing that stat the most this week. At just over 7,000 yards, it is not a long course so distance isn't as important. Accuracy off the tee and hitting greens have been key stats among past players who finished in the Top 25. Finally, putting, which can be a bit random at times, shows up as an important stat for those who finished in the Top 10.
I have changed my stat timeline from 24 to 36 rounds. It will take into account the recent results; but with some players making their 2017-2018 season debuts this week, I'm more willing to take a look at a longer stretch of time to see how a golfer has performed over the long run. For the last time in 2017, onto the picks:
Matt Kuchar (11,100)
I don't know what to do with Kuchar at this price point. He's one I usually like to take in the 9,000 range because he's always capable of a Top 10. But as the 2nd highest priced golfer, I want Top 5 with win potential. Though Kuchar has not won in a couple of years, I feel like he's due. He is #1 on my stat model this week, ranking 5th in Par 4 SG: 400-450, 8th in GIR and Accuracy. He's Top 25 in ball striking, putting, and approach. His prior history here includes three Top 25s and has gained 14.2 strokes in the past four years at the Seaside Course. He's a logical cash game start and is a very fair price on Fantasy Draft. (Cash, GPP Playable)
Charles Howell III (9,500)
When I look at players to choose from, there are three things I look at: Course History, Current Form, and stats. Howell fits two of the three, as he has put in three straight Top 20s in the Fall Swing, including a 4th last week, where he shot matching 66s on the weekend. He ranks 5th in strokes gained at the Seaside Course, gaining 22.9 strokes the past five years, including three Top 15s in that time. Yet, his stats are average, at best, over the past 36 rounds. It does get a little better when I extend the range to 50 or 100 rounds. I'll side with form and course history here and is fairly priced on all sites. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Others to Consider:
Kevin Kisner (11,600): Former winner, leads field with 28.6 strokes gained the past five years, and that includes 2 missed cuts. 5th in Par 4 SG: 400-450.
Chesson Hadley (10,200): Withdrew to illness last week, so nothing too worrisome. Still playing well with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prior to last week. 2nd in Par 4 SG: 400-450.
Cash: Hadley (especially on FanDuel)
GPP: Hadley, Kisner
Zach Johnson (9,100)
This tier has a lot of good options, and I'll start with Johnson. He saved his week at the OHL with a Sunday 64, finishing 23rd. He also finished 13th at the Safeway so he's in good form. Johnson doesn't have the best history here with two missed cuts and a 16th, but would seem to have the stats to fit here. Johnson is 9th in Par 4 SG: 400-450, and 13th in both GIR and Putting. He's one I like targeting on short courses where accuracy is important (32nd in that category). He's a nice second golfer or start to a balanced lineup this week. (Cash, GPP Playable)
Scott Brown (8,000)
When I saw the initial list of golfers for this week, Brown was one I thought I may use; but, I didn't think he would be making my write-up. He has two Top 10s the past three tournaments, including a 6th week, where every round was in the 60s. In the past five years, he has three Top 20s, resulting in gaining 16.6 strokes here, 7th best in the field. His stats are average, with his best being a 23rd in Putting. Nothing else is great, but nothing bad either. I like his price here and FanDuel and think he's a little overpriced on FantasyDraft. (GPP)
Others to Consider:
Graeme McDowell (8,700): 3rd here in his lone start, ranks 1st in Par 4 SG: 400-450, 2nd in Putting, and 3rd in Accuracy. Made all 5 cuts in Fall Swing.
Brandt Snedeker (8,600): Making his first start after wrist surgery. 4th in Par 4 SG: 400-450, Top 20 in GIR, Putting, and Approach.
Jamie Lovemark (8,400): Two top 10s the past year, gaining 16.4 strokes those two years. Doesn't have good recent stats, so that is the concern
William McGirt (8,300): 10th and 25th in Fall Swing, 27th and 32nd past two trips to Sea Island. 15th in Fairways and 30th in GIR.
I may also use: Bill Haas, Bud Cauley
Cash: Haas, McDowell
GPP: McDowell, Snedeker, Lovemark, McGirt, Cauley
Ryan Armour (7,800)
One of the winners of the Fall Swing, Armour continues to play well. He did struggle on the weekend last week, but I can throw that out due to weather and some starts and stops on the weekend. He's 2 for 2 in making the cut here and was 36th here last year. His stats are great: 1st in Fairways, 2nd in GIR, Top 25 in everything except Putting. He ranks Top 10 in my model for everything between 8 and 50 rounds, so this may not be a short term run. Armour is still extremely underpriced on FanDuel at 5,500, but is fair here at 7,800. (Cash and GPP)
Chad Campbell (7,300)
Campbell has some odd things working for and against him this week. Taking a look at his form, he has made four straight cuts in the Fall Swing: However, no finish has been better than 58th. His recent stats aren't great, but when I expend them to 36 rounds, he hits the ball striking trifecta: 3rd in Approach, 14th in Ball Striking, and 26th in GIR. The best reason to use him is his course history: Five straight made cuts here with three Top 15s, and he has gained 25.6 strokes the past five years here, 4th best. I think Campbell is a good cash game play with a little bit up upside based on course history. (Cash, GPP Playable)
Others to Consider:
Chris Kirk (7,700): 3 for 4 in made cuts in the Fall Swing, he ranks third in strokes gained at this event the past five years with 26. This includes a win and 4th.
Martin Laird (7,700): 17th at the Safeway, missed cut at Shriners. Top 25 in GIR, Par 4 SG: 400-450, and Accuracy.
Danny Lee (7,400): Made all 3 cuts in Fall Swing with a 7th and 25th. 5th in both GIR and Par 4 SG: 400-450
J.T. Poston (7,200): 4th and 14th in his past two tournaments in Fall Swing, ranked 18th in model if I use 12 rounds.
Others I may play: Stewart Cink, Sean O'Hair, Patrick Rodgers, Austin Cook, Talor Gooch
Cash: Laird, Lee, Poston
GPP: Everyone I mentioned in this range
Note: In my initial build, I don't see myself using anyone in this tier. However, there are some plays if you want to go here
Vaughn Taylor (6,900)
Taylor has been up and down in this Fall Swing. He has 2 missed cuts, but also has a 10th place finish. Taylor does have some stats working in his favor: 5th in Fairways and 25th in GIR. Overall, Taylor ranks anywhere from 17th to 31st in my model if I narrow the stats anything between 8 and 100 rounds. He's a cheap GPP flyer that you'll be happy with if he makes the cut. (GPP)
Tyrone Van Aswegen (6,800)
For someone that wrote up almost every tournament in 2017, I don't think I ever wrote about or even played Van Aswegen. I used him in some games in 2016 as a solid cut-maker but didn't get to him this year. Until now anyway. He's quietly put together a nice Fall Swing: Making 3 of 4 cuts with two top 25s and a 9th place finish. He ranks 4th in Approach and 20th in Ball Striking. He does struggle on Par 4s at this distance and Putting, so that's a concern. Like Taylor above, you're happy if he makes a cut and if he can continue his trend with a Top 25, you should be ecstatic. (GPP)
Others to Consider:
Brendon de Jonge (6,500): This is a course history play, as he has a 2nd, 4th, and 16th in the past five trips here, gaining 27.2 strokes in that time. Is 30th in Par 4 SG: 400-450 and 51st in Putting. (GPP)
As I conclude my first year writing golf here on MyFantasyFix, I want to thank everyone who read my articles; both free and premium. I hope you have enjoyed reading them and that have helped you in your lineups. I am ready for a little break from golf, but will be excited to start up again with the Tournament of Champions in early January. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.