TPC San Antonio; San Antonio, TX Par 72, 7,435 yards
Defending Champion: Kevin Chappell (-12) by one over Brooks Koepka
Primary Stats- SG: Tee-to-Green, Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Bogey Avoidance, DraftKings Scoring
Secondary Stats- Par 5 Stroke Gained
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
Roster Lock: 7:10 am CST (8:10 EST, 6:10 MST, 5:10 PST)
A little bit of a change since Monday, but similar results. According to the National Weather Service, the heaviest winds the first two days will be Thursday from 10:00 am to 2:00 pm. It's looking like 15 mph winds, with gusts up to 20 mph. But, winds stay around 15 mph for most of the day, dropping closer to 10 by the end of the evening. Friday has 10 mph winds for most of the day, with 15 mph winds later Friday.
I think there is an advantage for the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave, especially those who are in the final groups on Thursday (Julian Suri is a play in this area). But, I don't think you have to dramatically alter your lineups, based on wind. I will have eight lineups across the industry: I have one lineup stacked this way (and one stacked for Thursday AM/Friday PM in case winds flip flop). If running multiple lineups, I think it's a good idea. Otherwise, use it as a tiebreaker between two golfers if you must.
All projections are from Fanshare Sports.
Here are the highest projected ownerships, ranging from 37 to 18 in that order: Luke List, Brendan Steele, Jamie Lovemark, Charley Hoffman, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Abraham Ancer.
Of course, some of my favorite plays of the week show up here. Schauffele is the only one I'm not playing. He didn't jump out to me and ownership is enough for me to pass. (Of course, I used him in One and Done last week and maybe am feeling a little bitter. If you think I am and want to play him, I don't mind it). Luke List at 37% is worth discussion. I mentioned he was one of the more dominant #1s I've ever had in my model. But, at this ownership, I have to pull back slightly. He will be on four of my eight lineups (still overweight), but not as high as I may have gone if he were around 25%. I did cut back on some of my Jamie Lovemark shares, but will still have him in three lineups.
Players I am using that I did not write about on Monday: Zach Johnson (8,000). There is one thing I worry about this: he's projected to be owned around 6%; a similar number we saw Tyrell Hatton at last week, who then ended up at 16-17%. But, ZJ doesn't fit the long-hitter narrative that many are flocking to this week, so I don't expect a sudden 3x in his ownership. There is more than ownership that got me onto Zach. He's 10th Tee-to-Green, 32nd in DK Points, and 34th in Par 5 SG. His major weakness is Driving Distance, but it hasn't bothered him at TPC San Antonio before. Prior to a missed cut last year, he had a 6th, 20th, and 29th. Johnson also hasn't missed a cut this season. In a weaker field event, I like consistency in making cuts with some Top 10 upside.
Players I am NOT using included in Monday article: Sergio Garcia, Jimmy Walker, Jason Kokrak, Dylan Frittelli, Aaron Wise, Beau Hossler, and Trey Mullinax. I don't mind any of these plays. I just decided to restrict my core players down to about 20 this week, and they didn't make it. Kokrak and Fritelli are the lowest projected owned players of this group, if you're interested.
For the second (and not last) time this year, the tour heads to Texas for the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio. Wind will play a big role this week, so I will include a brief look into it, with the main analysis coming on Wednesday.
Rain late Friday night should not affect play. However, there may be a tee time advantage for the first time this year. Thursday looks to have consistent 10-15 mph winds all day. Friday morning looks to be the same, but Friday afternoon looks to have 15-20 mph winds, with gusts up to 25 mph. It's not a huge difference, but significant enough that if you're running multiple lineups, you may want to consider having a couple of lineups with a Thursday PM/Friday AM stack. Of course, this is an early look and weather can change. But, if nothing changes or it flips the other way, be ready to stack early/late or late/early tee times.
National Fantasy Pregame Show
https://www.facebook.com/nationalpregame/. I mention four picks on the video. I will include them on here as well.
RBC Heritage Recap
I won't spend much time venting about how silly the TV Contracts are that we can't watch the final round or playoff live, due to the tour correctly moving tee times up to avoid the weather. Anyway, if you had read my Wednesday update, I mentioned that one of my ownership pivots was Satoshi Kodaira, who had the best weekend of any golfer to defeat Si Woo Kim on the third playoff hole.
Best Pick: Fading Luke Donald, who missed cut on the number.
Worst Pick: Tyrell Hatton was projected to be a low owned play. I took him and he was 15-17% owned. After a 4 over 75 on Thursday, he couldn't get anything going on Friday to miss the cut.
Next week is the Zurich Classic and for the second straight year, it will be a team event. DraftKings has said they will not run contests for this next week. There will be no article for the event. If you are in One and Done leagues, check your rules as you may still have to make a pick.
We haven't had too many long courses as of late, so seeing a 7,400 yard course will bring back the need to look at Driving Distance. The rough is not penal, but the greens have a lot of slopes so hitting the greens in the right spot is important. This is why I am emphasizing Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation in my stat model. The cut usually is over par, so I'm looking at bogey avoidance as a stat. Finally, I'm including DK Scoring and Par 5 Strokes Gained as categories in my stat model. Tee times don't come out until Tuesday, so I'm writing up the picks based on neutral situations for now, and not any tee times.
Charley Hoffman (10,900)
I don't remember seeing Hoffman ever priced this high, but with his history at TPC San Antonio, I can see why. He won in 2016 with 4 consecutive Top 13s the previous four years. His 40th last year was his worst finish the past six years, but leads this field with 45 strokes gained at the Valero. Hoffman comes in with three straight Top 25s, scoring over 80 DraftKings Points in those events, ranking 2nd in this field. Charley ranks 3rd in Par 5 SG, 7th in GIR and Bogey Avoidance, and 13th Tee-to-Green. His best price is on FanDuel, but is affordable on DraftKings, and is fine in any format. However, he will be one I consider not playing in tournaments if his ownership approaches 25%. (Cash and GPP)
Luke List (10,000)
He's the first player I included in my video this week, as he has three Top 10s and no finish worse than 26th in a stroke play event in his last eight events. His tournament history isn't great here, but his form is too good for me to ignore. But what attracted me to him was his stats. He's #1 in my model, and is one of the most dominant rankings I have seen. List is #1 Tee-to-Green, Bogey Avoidance, and DK Points. He also ranks 2nd in Distance, 4th in GIR, and 5th in Par 5 Strokes Gained. This course seems to be a good fit for List, so I'm surprised he hasn't finished any better than 29th. I expect that to change this week. I expect List to be my one and done pick and don't really care what his ownership will be. (Cash and GPP)
Others to Consider:
- Sergio Garcia (12,000) is looking to bounce back after a round Masters. He hasn't played the Valero before, but usually does play an event or two in Texas. Ranks 1st in GIR, 3rd Tee-to-Green, and 8th in DraftKings points.
- Ryan Moore (10,200) should be the lowest owned in this range, despite 5th, 18th, and 26th his last three events on Tour. Was 18th here last year and 8th in 2012. Ranks 3rd in DK Points, 9th, in GIR, and 12th Tee-to-Green. May consider if under 10%.
GPP: Garcia, Moore
Adam Scott (9,600)
Scott will be the only play I have in the 9k tier this week. You won't see any recent results in the tournament history, but did win here in 2010. He's looking to regain some form that he didn't have in 2017, and has made 5 cuts in a row, with two Top 20s in that span. Scott also ranks well in my model: 1st in GIR, 5th in both Tee-to-Green and Driving Distance, 26th in DraftKings Points, and 27th in Bogey Avoidance. He's a decent price on FantasyDraft as well. In a year where we've seen people win who haven't won recently, it would not surprising to me to see Scott win here as well. (Cash and GPP).
Brendan Steele (8,900)
Steele started the season with a win at the Safeway Open, and now comes to another tournament where he has won before. His missed cut at The Masters was his only missed cut this season, with a win, Top 10, and only one finish outside of the Top 30s. He has mixed results here after his win: 4th, 8th, 13th, 46th, 62nd, and a missed cut the past six years. Statistically, Steele ranks 7th in GIR, 8th in Tee-to-Green and Driving Distance, and 13th in DK Points. I can see this upper 8k range potentially being overlooked, and if so, Steele is a great tournament upside play. (GPP)
Pat Perez (8,400)
Perez burned a lot of people at The Masters, but he seems a little underpriced on DraftKings this week. He has a win and two Top 10s this season, with no finish worse than 41st. Perez has a couple previous appearances here in the past, finishing 11th and 20th. He ranks well in most of the key stats this week: 4th in Par 5 SG, 21st in GIR and DK Points, and 45th in Tee-to-Green. He's not a long hitter of the golf ball, but with previous success here and good form, I think this is a very fair price on Perez. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Others to Consider:
- Ryan Palmer (8,300) is a course horse, finishing 6th, 4th, and 6th the past three years, and a 15th in 2013. 4th in Driving Distance and 8th in Par 5 Strokes Gained. More stats and analysis on National Fantasy Pregame Show Video.
- Jimmy Walker (8,200) is another native Texan with a win here and other successes. Has made six of his last seven cuts, including a 20th at The Masters. Is 34th in Bogey Avoidance and 46th in DK Points, but is below average in Tee-to-Green. More of a tournament history play with some ok form.
Cash: Palmer is Playable
GPP: Palmer and Walker
Jamie Lovemark (7,700)
One of the players I mentioned in my video, Lovemark is the type of player I can see playing well here. He's two for three in making cuts with a 36th and 40th here. Lovemark is playing well with six made cuts in a row, including a 24th in his last start in Houston. He profiles well here statistically: 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 6th Tee-to-Green, 16th in DK Points, 20th in Par 5 SG, and 26th in Driving Distance. He's a slight bargain on DraftKings compared to the other sites, and find the price fair and will be a possible surprise Top 10 pick of mine this week. (Cash and GPP)
Aaron Baddeley (7,300)
One narrative you always here in Texas is that Aussies play well here because they grew up in similar wind conditions. Baddeley fits that narrative and when you look at his tournament history, you see success. He's made his past five cuts, with a 5th, two Top 10s, and 29th. He has gained over 27 strokes here the past five years. His recent form is decent at best. Baddeley has made six straight cuts, with a 14th at the Genesis being his best finish. Baddeley is not poor at Greens in Regulation, but does fine in the other stats: 18th in Bogey Avoidance, 38th in Par 5 SG, 40th Tee-to-Green, 42nd in DK Points, and 45th in Driving Distance. More of a tournament play, I'm hoping he goes overlooked this week, but like his ability to make cuts, with great history to add some upside here. (GPP)
Others to Consider:
- Kevin Streelman (7,700) is coming off a 7th last week, his third Top 10 this season. Has made his last three cuts in San Antonio. Ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 14th Tee-to-Green, 20th in DK Points, and 24th in Par 5 Strokes Gained.
- Jason Kokrak (7,400) still continues to rank well in stats, despite three poor starts in a row. He ranks 3rd in GIR, 9th in Distance and Tee-to-Green, and 10th in Par 5 SG. Does have two Top 15s in his past 5 starts at TPC San Antonio.
- Keith Mitchell (7,400) is the 4th and final player I mention in the National Fantasy Pregame Show Video. Has a couple of Top 10s already this season. Has great stats: 1st in Par 5 SG, 3rd in Driving Distance, and 9th in DK Points. Potentially low owned rookie.
GPP: Streelman, Kokrak, Mitchell
Others I may play depending on ownership: J.B. Holmes, Bill Haas, Dylan Fritelli, Aaron Wise, Beau Hossler, John Huh, Trey Mullinax, Tom Hoge
- Abraham Ancer (6,900) is coming off a 16th, 13th, and 8th in his last three starts. 9th in Bogey Avoidance, average in almost every other stat. Only slightly below average in Driving Distance. 42nd in 2016 here.
- Nate Lashley (6,900) has an 18th and 28th in his last two starts, but poor form prior. 21st Tee-to-Green, 26th in Bogey Avoidance, 29th in GIR, and 33rd in DK Scoring. Top 50 in other stats. Very risky, but seems to fit here decently.
- Nick Taylor (6,700) is in horrible form, but has a 21st and 22nd the past two years here. Tournament History Play only.
Cash: Ancer is Playable
GPP: Ancer. Lashley and Taylor are 1-2% deep flyers.
A weaker field than we have seen this year means less plays, but they are spread out. Weather and ownership are going to play a key role into my final lineup building on Wednesday night, so make sure to check back here for that update. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.