Colonial CC: Fort Worth, TX Par 70, 7,209 yards
Defending Champion: Kevin Kisner (-10) by one over Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, and Sean O'Hair
Primary Stats- Total Strokes Gained, Good Drives, Par 4 SG, GIR
Secondary Stats- DK Points, 3-Putt Avoidance, Proximity: 150-175 Yards
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
The last part of the Texas Swing happens this week at historic Colonial CC for the Fort Worth Invitational. As it is an Invitational, there are only 120 players in the field, meaning only about 40-50 will miss the cut.
National Fantasy Pregame Show
Unlike last week at Trinity Forest, where we didn't have a lot of data, we have a lot of course data at Colonial. A Par 70 means there are 12 Par 4s, so Par 4 SG will be looked at. Hitting fairways here are tough and getting a chance to putt is also tough. It's why I rank SG: Tee-to-Green, GIR, and Good Drives so heavily this week. When looking at past data, there have been more shots from 150-175 yards than any other range by a significant amount, so I included that. Finally, 3-Putt Avoidance will be key this week for those in contention. You will see that it is the only weakness for some players, so while I'm considering it, I wouldn't weigh it heavily. There are plays in all price points, including some decent options 7k and below, which we don't always get. It will be interesting to see where the chatter goes as far as lineup construction this week. Onto the picks.
Justin Rose (10,600)
I'm going to try and guess that Rose ends up as the lowest owned in this tier. His last couple tournaments don't stand out: 12th at The Masters and 23rd at the Players. But, you have to go back to the 2017 PGA Championship to find his last missed cut. That includes numerous Top 10s and a couple of wins in that span. He has no recent tournament history here; another reason why he may be the lowest owned. Rose ranks 2nd in DK Points, 11th in Par 4 SG, and 12th Tee-to-Green. The only area he struggles is with 3-Putt Avoidance, but everything else is in line. He's 1,100 cheaper than Spieth, which is too much of a discount for me to ignore. (Cash and GPP)
Thoughts in This Tier:
No bad plays in this tier. Jordan Spieth (11,700) has a win, two 2nds, a 7th, and 14th the past five years, gaining more strokes than anyone else in this field. It's not close. 21st and 41st in the past two events, with some struggles with the putter as well being the negatives. But, 1st Tee-to-Green, and Top 7 in DK Points, GIR, and Par 4 SG. Jon Rahm (11,000) may be a victim of the middle price point. Great options below, and not that much more to Spieth. He was 2nd here in his debut at Colonial last year. Ranks 1st in Par 4 SG, 4th in DK Points, and 9th in GIR and Tee-to-Green. Rickie Fowler (10,400) is fine, has good stats, but is #5 for me in this tier. I would rather go 200 cheaper with Webb Simpson (10,200) who has a 3rd and 5th the past two years, and was dominating in his last start at The Players. Top quarter in every stat except Proximity from 150-175 yards.
Cash: Spieth, Rahm, Simpson
GPP: Spieth, Rahm, Simpson, Fowler
Matt Kuchar (9,300)
Kuchar burned some fantasy players last week with a missed cut at the Byron Nelson. Amazingly, this was his first missed cut in 13 months. That course didn't seem to fit him as well as Colonial does. He has a 2nd, 6th, and 12th in his past four appearances here. Kuchar's recent stats are solid, but nothing jumps out. Best is 18th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, and worst is 78th in Good Drives. The price is fair, and with the past success and ability to make cuts, he's a great second golfer in cash games, and not a bad tournament play either. (Cash and GPP)
Other Thoughts in This Tier:
I'm not in love with this tier. I'll let others chase Aaron Wise (9,600) after his first PGA Tour Career win. I'm not on Patrick Cantlay (9,000) despite good stats and good performance at Heritage. His putting and Proximity from 150-175 yards concerns me, especially at what I think will be higher ownership. But, I will consider if he's sub 10% owned on Wednesday night. Jimmy Walker (9,500) doesn't have as good of a history here as he does at other Texas courses. 4th in Par 4 SG and 3-Putt Avoidance, and 9th in DK Points. But, near the bottom in Good Drives; one of the biggest stats to focus on this week. Brooks Koepka (9,200) has never played here and has looked good coming back from injury. Stats are middle of the road due to the injury, but does intrigue me in tournaments this week. Adam Scott (9,100) is regaining form, with a 9th and 11th the past two weeks. He needs a good next couple of weeks to get into the U.S. Open. Ranks 8th in my stats model. More specifics on The National Pregame Show Video.
Cash: Scott, Cantlay
GPP: Scott, Koepka
Emiliano Grillo (8,600)
Grillo has been playing well for 9 months now, not missing a cut since last August, and has five Top 10s in that time. He had three Top 16s before a decent 37th at The Players, where he had 20 birdies. He's scoring well, though he only ranks 19th in DK Points. Everything else though, pretty good; 2nd Tee-to-Green, 6th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, 9th in Good Drives, and 14th in both GIR and Par 4 SG. Unless he gets to 25-30% ownership, I plan on having multiple shares of Grillo this week, and may be a potential One and Done for me. (Cash and GPP)
Zach Johnson (8,500)
I was between him and Jason Dufner here. Dufner is more expensive and I don't think he's as good of a play, though maybe higher upside. ZJ has just been so consistent this year and at this course. He won in 2010 and 2012, with three Top 20s since that 2012 win. Johnson has made 14 cuts in a row this season, with eight Top 25s, including a 6th at the Valero. He ranks 10th in Proximity from 150-175, 15th Tee-to-Green, and 17th in DK Points. 3-Putt Avoidance is his only weakness, but is playing too well this year and here in the past to ignore. I wish the price was a little lower but it's fair and worth playing ZJ in cash games. (Cash, GPP Playable)
Other Thoughts in This Tier:
The highest owned player in this tier should be Bryson DeChambeau (8,800), who has three Top 5s in his last five events. He's #1 in my stat model, ranking in the Top 10 in every stat except 3-Putt Avoidance. This includes 1st in DK Points, and 3rd in Good Drives and Par 4 SG. Only problem is he's 0-2 in making cuts here. I mentioned Jason Dufner (8,700) above, but would limit him to GPPs. Does have three Top 10s the past six years (all in even years if you're into that). Chesson Hadley (8,300) is another one I talk about on The National Fantasy Pregame Show Video, and is in consideration with five straight Top 20s on Tour. More stats on the video, but does rank 2nd in Par 4 Strokes Gained. Finally, Xander Schauffele (8,200) looked like he regained some form with a 2nd at The Players. 11th Tee-to-Green and 12th in Proximity from 150-175 yards.
Cash: DeChambeau, Hadley
GPP: DeChambeau, Dufner, Hadley, Schauffele
Charley Hoffman (7,900)
As usual, there are many plays in the 7k range. Hoffman doesn't have the best recent form (Cut, 64th) but prior to that, if he made the cut, he was a Top 25 finisher in most events. A native Texan, he enjoys Colonial, with four Top 25s and no missed cuts the past six years. Hoffman ranks 4th in GIR and 14th in Proximity: 150-175 yards. He's in the Top 30 in every stat except Tee-to-Green (32nd) and 3-Putt Avoidance (89th). Hoffman is one that seems to be one that plays better in big events and any event in Texas is big for him. A little too risky in cash games, but is always a tournament play with his upside. (GPP)
Adam Hadwin (7,600)
I hope I am wrong on this, but I think Hadwin will be the chalk in this price range this week. I don't know why he isn't in the 8k price range, but I'll take the discount. He didn't play well at The Players, but did make the cut and had five straight Top 25s going into that event. Hadwin also does have a 5th and 23rd in the past here, so he has played Colonial well before. Hadwin ranks 1st in GIR and Good Drives, 7th Tee-to-Green, and 15th in Par 4 SG. He's another one that I just think I'm going to eat the chalk on and will be in multiple lineups for me. (Cash and GPP)
Other Thoughts in This Tier:
As usual, lots of options. Beau Hossler (7,700) comes down in price after some middle of the road performances. But, he does rank 5th in Good Drives, 12th in GIR, 13th in DK Points, and 15th in Par 4 SG. I'm back on Chris Kirk (7,600), who won here in 2015, and has four Top 25s and no missed cuts in the past six years at Colonial. 10th in 3-Putt Avoidance and 17th Tee-to-Green, his Proximity from 150-175 is only weakness. J.J. Spaun (7,400) helped us out on Sunday in his post-round interview with Amanda Balionis on CBS (Click Here for Video). He said he likes Colonial and tends to get streaky when playing well (3rd last week). 11th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, doesn't really stand out in any other stat. I'll go with his word here. Nick Watney (7,300) is one I talk about in my National Fantasy Pregame Show Video. Isn't missing many cuts and mostly in Top 40 with good stats. Only knock is he doesn't have a great history here. Andrew Putnam (7,000) does limit bogies and has made five cuts in a row, with two Top 10s. 18th in Par 4 SG, around average in other stats.
Cash: Hossler, Watney, Spaun is Playable
GPP: Hossler, Kirk, Spaun, Putnam, Watney
Others I may play depending on ownership: Ryan Palmer, Corey Conners, Russell Knox, Brian Harman, Danny Lee, Pat Perez, Kevin Streelman, Sean O'Hair
Thoughts in This Tier:
Not going to be locks in my lineups, I could see myself going to one or two of these players. Nick Taylor (6,900) is my gut play here. Taylor has made all three cuts in this event. Was 32nd last week, and did shoot all four rounds under 70. Abraham Ancer (6,700) is Top 20 in GIR, Good Drives, and Par 4 SG. Average or above in other stats, and still making cuts with decent finishes. John Huh (6,700) is my last player I talk about on The National Fantasy Pregame Show, despite missing three straight cuts. However, the last two were by one shot, so he's not playing as bad as the game log suggests. In his past six trips here, he has 3 missed cuts and 3 Top 20s.Ranks
GPP: Taylor (1% play), Ancer, Huh
Even with 120 players in this field, there are multiple ways you can go with lineup construction this week. I do like some of the values around 7k if you wanted to go stars and scrubs. There's good plays for a balanced approach. This should be a fun week for fantasy golf. Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.