TPC Boston: Norton, MA Par 71, 7,297 Yards
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-17) by three shots over Jordan Spieth
Primary Stats- SG: Tee-to-Green, Birdies or Better, GIR, SG: Approach
Secondary Stats- SG: Putting, Bogey Avoidance
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified. May look at last 12 and 100 rounds as well
Roster Lock: 8:15 am EST FRIDAY (7:15 am CST, 6:15 MST, 5:15 PST)
Should be beautiful weather around Boston for this tournament, with highs in the mid-70s. 5-8 mph winds the first two days, with the "calmest" winds being Friday Morning, below 5 mph. I don't think this is significant enough to stack tee times, solely based on weather.
As always, ownership plays a role into lineup decisions. Looking at FanShare Sports and Fantasy National, here are the golfers who are projecting to be the most popular plays:
- Billy Horschel, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama (Close to 20% projected)
- Bryson Dechambeau, Tiger Woods, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Joel Dahmen (Dahmen only 6k golfer above 10%)
Here is who I am playing, based on DK tier (Doesn't mean I'm playing them on DK: But, will be in at least one of my lineups this week).
- 10k+: DJ, Thomas, Koepka
- 9k: Rose, Tiger, Cantlay
- 8k: Fleetwood
- 7k: Johnson, Hatton, Stanley, Reavie, An
- 6k: Kirk
I haven't been putting the right combination of players together recently, so I went from playing 20 lineups to 10 to 5, to 3 in the end: one on each site. I'm doing this to save some bankroll until the mini-slump ends. Therefore, some of the players I was considering if I was playing 20 lineups got cut. Finau and DeChambeau end up being ownership fades. Poulter was the last guy I cut, as I found myself liking Zach Johnson more. Kirk ended up being the lowest projected owned of the the 6k guys I was looking at. As far as my two additional plays:
Kyle Stanley (7,100 DK): 21st in GIR, 26th Tee-to-Green, has only lost strokes Tee-to-Green once since the end of January. High upside play.
Patrick Cantlay (9,000 DK, 10,000 FD): Cantlay is priced as a Top 12 golfer on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Yet, he's the 22nd highest priced golfer on FanDuel. I'll take advantage, even if he will be popular. 5th Tee-to-Green and in GIR, Top 20 in every stat except Putting (37th). Three Top 10s and no finish worse than 45th in last seven starts.
Tournament History File available to anyone with a MyFantasyFix login.
The last time for the Dell Technologies Championship, as this is the event that is removed with the new Playoff format starting next year. This is also a bit of a weird event: First off, there are only 98 golfers (Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler are not playing), and we still have Top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. At most, 28 golfers will be cut with 75% of the field making the cut. Second, this event starts on Friday and has a Labor Day Monday finish.
A similar length course to last week, it is a TPC Course, which means most shots will be tested, and scoring will be available to those who are playing well. I'm going back to some of my most popular stats this week: Tee-to-Green, Approach, and GIR as it looks like a 2nd shot course. This is tough enough that bogey avoidance is something I look at (cut has been over par the past few years). However, this course does yield birdies so I did weigh Birdies or Better a little higher. Finally, Putting continues to play a factor each week, and I will look at that as well.
Unless a lot of chalk misses the cut, 6 of 6 is necessary to cash this week. Expect 30-50 percent of lineups to have it, with potential of higher numbers since so few will be cut. Getting the cheaper plays in the 6k and 7k range are going to be important, along with getting the top golfers right as well. I think both the Balanced Lineup and Stars and Scrubs Lineup methods are viable this week. I'm going to be trying to limit my core players to focus on a few at top, and find values along the way in the bottom three tiers to play.
Justin Thomas (11,400)
Thomas flew under the radar a bit a week ago (I didn't have him either) but is playing well with three straight Top 10s. He won this event on his way to the FedEx Cup title a year ago and is looking poised to try to repeat this again. JT ranks 1st in Approach, 2nd Tee-to-Green, 3rd in Birdies or Better, and is Top 27 in every stat category. I think he may go overlooked again due to him being between DJ and Koepka in pricing. But, he's won here and is playing well enough recently that his elite ball striking should fit very well again at TPC Boston. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Dustin Johnson (11,600) quietly finished 11th last week and without struggles around the green or a mediocre Saturday round, would have been right in contention. First in Tee-to-Green and Birdies or Better, DJ also ranks Top 12 in every other stat category.
- Brooks Koepka (11,000) had a simlar weekend to DJ in that he didn't make much of a move; yet, he still finished 8th, despite losing over a stroke Putting. His tee-to-green game is still elite, ranking 4th in that category and 2nd in Birdies or Better. Still enormous upside and if he's going to be in the same 15% range again this week, I think you have to consider playing him.
Cash: DJ, Koepka
GPP: DJ, Koepka
Justin Rose (9,300)
Dear DFS Golf Players not reading this article: Please, please use recency bias and don't play Rose after his first missed cut all year. Look, he burned my lineups as I had him in four of my five last week (Noren and Molinari took care of ruining the other one), but when I look at the stats, it's easy to see why he missed the cut. In two rounds, Rose lost 6 strokes putting. He's only lost strokes putting in one other event this year. Rose ranks 5th in Birdies or Better, 9th Tee-to-Green, and 16th in Bogey Avoidance. He was 10th at the Dell Technologies a year ago as well. I still think he will be popular, but I don't mind going right back to him after his first missed cut in a long time. (Cash and GPP)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Tiger Woods (9,700) was another golffer who lost significant strokes Putting last week (nearly 5, but gained 5.7 on Approach). Each time Tiger has struggled with the putter this year, he has bounced back to gain strokes in that category. He won here in 2006 and was 3rd in 2012. Tiger is 2nd in Approach, 5th Tee-to-Green, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, and 9th in Birdies or Better. He looks to be in a great spot and the price is good enough that I want to take a chance on him. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Tommy Fleetwood (8,500)
It looks like Fleetwood is getting a little undervalued here due to his 20th and 35th place finishes in his last two tournaments. However, when I look at the events, there were only three times in the last five PGA Tour events that he had loss strokes in any category (and gained at both U.S. Open and British Open, where there were not individual stats). He ranks 7th in Birdies or Better, 9th in Bogey Avoidance, and is Top 25 in every stat except Approach (39th). His upside is always enormous if he can avoid the one subpar round he has each week. He's my favorite play in this entire 8k range and will be on a lot of my rosters. (Cash and GPP)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Tony Finau (8,800) Gained 12.6 shots Tee-to-Green last week, but more than half was around the green. If that happens again, he's in trouble. But, Finau keeps showing up in big events and being on the Ryder Cup bubble, he needs another solid performance to guarantee a trip to France here in a month. Ranks 4th in Birdies or Better, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, and 16th Tee-to-Green. If he finds his way to 25% ownership, I will either fade or go underweight on him.
- Bryson DeChambeau (8,700) was dominant all around last week in his win, gaining around 8.5 strokes Tee-to-Green and 7 strokes Putting; his best performance all year. So the putting is a slight concern since he may not be able to keep it up. But, he's a streaky golfer and was playing decently, outside of the PGA Championship, going into last week. Ranks in the Top 25 in every stat, with 8th in Birdies or Better being his best.
GPP: Finau, DeChambeau
Tyrell Hatton (7,700)
Hatton caught my attention on Sunday, going low to end up 20th. This is after a 10th at the PGA, so he's showing some solid form. Hatton has been really good on his Approach and Tee-to-Green lately: if his putter is average, he will be contending come Monday. He is 14th in Bogey Avoidance and 15th in GIR (not great stats elsewhere: but it's hard to know what true stats are with none kept on Euro Tour). He's in sneaky good form and the price is right on him this week. World-class players tend to step up during the Playoffs and win, and Hatton does fit in that category. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Brandt Snedeker (7,800) took a week off after win at Wyndham. Has a 6th here in 2012, but no real other great finishes. 3rd in Putting, 14th in Approach, and Top 35 in every other stat category. Been really good Tee-to-Green and in Approach in his 3 Top 10s in last five starts.
- Zach Johnson (7,500) makes a lot of cuts here, but nothing better than a 16th since 2012. Was average last week Tee-to-Green, but putter saved him. 2nd in Putting and 13th in Birdies or Better, this is a much better price on him than last week. Don't need Top 10-15 finish at this price.
- Ian Poulter (7,400) just had an average week at Northern Trust. Had been pretty good Tee-to-Green prior to that. Three Top 25s in last five starts at TPC Boston. Ranks 13th in Bogey Avoidance and 17th in Putting, I just like the price on him and think he wants to make sure Thomas Bjorn picks him for Euro side of Ryder Cup.
- Rafa Cabrera Bello (7,300) was 18th here last year, and had three straight Top 20s before a rough week at the Northern Trust. Slightly above-average to average in every stat category, I'm going to try and ride the form prior to last week and hope he comes in at low ownership. Will fade if he approaches 15% though.
- Chez Reavie (7,000) is a streaky player, as we saw at the beginning of the season on the West Coast Swing. A 12th and 20th the past two weeks has me thinking he may be back to early season form, with most of the strokes gained coming on Approach. Not surprising, he ranks 11th in Approach this week. Has been 1-2% owned last couple of tournaments, really don't see him getting much above 5 percent. I'll ride the form.
- Byeong-Hun An (7,000) fits a theme of this week: Was really good last week Tee-to-Green (+8.7 strokes) but horrible with the putter (-7 strokes Putting). He's not a great putter (91st over last 24 rounds) but is 9th in Bogey Avoidance and 23rd Tee-to-Green. At 7k, I don't mind taking a shot because if he can be average or gain a stroke or two putting, he could threaten to match his 2nd place finishes at The Memorial and Canadian Open.
Cash: Snedeker, Johnson, Poulter
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Ryan Palmer (6,900) has three Top 25s in his last four starts, including a 5th last week where he gained 10 strokes Tee-to-Green. Has a 16th and 24th in his last three starts at TPC Boston. Palmer is 27th in Birdies or Better and 30th in Approach.
- Danny Lee (6,800) has made four straight cuts: each being a Top 35 finish, gaining strokes each week except Approach in two of those weeks. 8th in Bogey Avoidance and 16th in Putting, Lee is a streaky golfer that you want to use when he's playing well; just don't go too crazy on him, as he does have high variance in his results.
- Chris Kirk (6,800) was chalk last week and probably will be again this week. He won here in 2014 and hasn't missed a cut at TPC Boston in the last six years. The concern is he was not good on the weekend, and ended up losing nearly 9 strokes in the event. Prior to that, he had an 11th and 31st. But, in both of those finishes, most of his strokes gained were putting. Yet, he ranks 29th in Approach and 59th in Putting. I will probably be underweight, as he's still the best player in this range; but, I'm not convinced that you have to use him at high ownership.
Cash: Kirk is Playable
GPP: Palmer, Lee, Kirk
This should be a fun week with most of the field making the cut, and a variety of birdies and bogies to be had. Ownership will factor in some decisions for me, and I will discuss that on the update on Thursday. Also, next week's article will probably come out on Tuesday, and there will be no update to that. Good luck this week and Happy Labor Day to all!