Sedgefield CC: Greensboro, NC Par 70, 7,127 Yards
Defending Champion: Henrik Stenson (-22) by one over Ollie Schniederjans
Primary Stats- SG: Tee-to-Green, Birdies or Better, Greens in Regulation
Secondary Stats- Par 4 SG: 400-450 Yards, SG: Approach, 3-Putt Avoidance, Proximity from 150-175 Yards
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified. May look at last 100 rounds as well
Tournament History file available to everyone who has a login on MyFantasyFix.
Roster Lock: 7:00 am EST (6:00 CST, 5:00 MST, 4:00 PST)
Only a very slight concern. Thursday has 5-7 mph winds throughout the day. The "strongest" of the winds is Friday afternoon, where it may get up to 10 mph. There is also a slight chance of some rain showers Friday afternoon into evening. But I don't see any advantages to be had with tee times.
Some disagreement from Fantasy National and FanShare Sports on the percentages and maybe players. However, the top guys are pretty universal. In no particular order, here are the players who are expected to see the most ownership this week: Chris Kirk, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Webb Simpson, Harold Varner III, Tyler Duncan, Joaquin Niemann, Sam Ryder, Ryan Moore, and C.T. Pan.
I don't think there's a great feel for some of these players. I would expect Kirk, RCB, Simpson, and Varner III to be over 20%. But, I don't see any of those 4 getting to 30% outside of maybe Kirk. If looking for alternatives, Sergio is about 10% projected, and Matsuyama is around 8%.
Here is who I am playing, based on DraftKings tier (doesn't mean I'm playing them on DK, but will have in a lineup there or another site):
- 10k: Simpson, Stenson, Lowry
- 9k: Niemann, Moore, Garcia, Henley
- 8k: Varner III, Stricker, Suri
- 7k: Ryder, Whee Kim, Duncan, Kirk
- 6k: Hughes
I took different approaches, based on the site. On FantasyDraft and DraftKings, I went with more of a balanced approach. On Yahoo and FanDuel, I went stars and scrubs, since there was enough value with some other picks to make this work (also, these two tend to allow more of a top heavy build if you so choose).
Something else I have been doing is some of the very chalky plays (Varner, Kirk for example this week) is to fade on DraftKings, and play on the other sites. They tend to be just as popular there, but I've seen it be a little less. Since DraftKings is the most popular golf DFS site, and has the largest games, I figure I have to be more willing to fade the chalk there, than the other sites. It's my own approach; doesn't mean you have to follow.
Next week starts the Playoffs. For the four events, I will have the article up by Tuesday night. It still may be posted by Monday night, but some weeks, it will be Tuesday. Good luck this week and whatever plays you make and stands you take, good luck.
125. Tyrone Van Aswegen
He is the guy with the most pressure on him this week. Why? He's holding the last spot to qualify for the PGA Tour Playoffs and be fully exempt on Tour next season. The Wyndham may not have the strongest fields or be the toughest course, but it adds the drama of players playing for a spot on tour next year and a spot for the upcoming playoffs. If you like drama, this is the week for you. Every shot could mean the difference between setting a schedule for the 2018-2019 season, or having to wait on others. If you think I'm being a bit dramatic about this, look at John Peterson's medical extension this year, or Zac Blair's final standing last year.
Sedgefield is a short course (or at least short compared to the past two weeks) that yields a lot of low scores and gives a fair opportunity to those trying to get into the playoffs. The rough is short and greens in regulation seemed to be the most correlated stat for those who finished in the Top 20 or better. I included Tee-to-Green with the Approach emphasis for this reason. Putting has shown up to be a key to players finishing in the Top 5, but 3-Putts do happen here a little more often than other events. We've seen a cut be under par the past four years here, so I want players that will make birdies. Of the 12 Par 4s on this course, eight of them are between 400-450 yards. There also tends to be a lot of shots from the 150-175 yard range, as players aren't always hitting driver on this shorter course.
As I write up players, I will include the FedEx Cup (FEC) rank of anyone who is #120 and down. I tend to think there are only 2-3 spots to be had this week, as far as players moving up or down. Players below 125 will need a made cut for sure, and probably a Top 30 to feel secure. Of course, the further down the list, the better finish a golfer will need. I will mention what each of them needs, at a minimum, to have a chance at the Playoffs.
Finally, some brief thoughts about last week. A lot of my fades found there way into the final three groups (Rahm, Fowler, Tiger, and Koepka). But that 9k range was pretty good as I believe everyone made the cut. Players like Thomas and Molinari and Day had chances going into Sunday. I was wrong on my fades (if Rose was projected at 15-20%, I was dropping him for Koepka). Pure and simple. I can live with it as some weeks the fades work, and others they don't; can't play everybody My main takeaways from the event:
- Bring another big event back to Bellerive. Course was fair and held up nicely, despite all the unexpected rain that fell. Bellerive played exactly how I think a major course should play: good shots rewarded, and bad shots punished.
- Tiger will win an event either this year or next year.
- Brooks Koepka has every right to be considered with Dustin Johnson as the best player in the world. He may have even passed DJ.
Henrik Stenson (11,000)
Stenson is the defending champion, and was really good in his debut at Sedgefield a year ago. However, his form hasn't been great since a wrist injury prior to the British Open. Since then, his finishes are 35th, 39th, and a missed cut. When I look into the last two events, I see what his big problem has been: the putter. He's lost 10 strokes Putting those two events. Last year here, he gained nearly 9 strokes putting. Stenson is up and down with the putter. But, he ranks out really well statistically in the other areas. He is 1st in Tee-to-Green, GIR, and Proximity from 150-175 yards. Stenson is also 4th in GIR and 7th in Par 4 SG: 400-450 Yards. Extend this out to 100 yards, and Stenson is #1 in the field in every stat except Birdies or Better (3rd) and 3-Putt Avoidance (8th). I'm hesitant in cash games due to form, but the stats and course setup seem to fit Stenson well. (GPP, Cash Game Playable)
Thoughts in This Tier:
There really is no one else I want to play in this tier. Webb Simpson (11,600) is a former champion and a great history here, leading the field with +37 strokes gained the past five years. Top 40 in every stat except Birdies or Better. I just don't like the price on him.The only other play here would be Shane Lowry (10,000, #139 FEC) as he's in really nice form with three straight Top 15s. However, I wouldn't play him on DK, but would on FanDuel (9,800). He's 7th in GIR and 12th in Birdies or Better. Must finish Solo 11th or better to have any chance at making Playoffs.
Cash: Lowry on FD is Playable, Simpson if you can find enough value
GPP: Simpson, Lowry
Sergio Garcia (9,200 #131 FEC)
Yes, it is surprising to see Sergio short of the Playoffs. Unlike most of the others, he's not in danger of losing out on events or anything as a recent major winner and frequent Euro Tour player. Sergio has been in a little bit of a slump, missing three of his last four cuts. However, those missed cuts have been by one or two strokes, so he's not far off. Over the past 24 rounds, his best stat is 33rd Tee-to-Green. But over last 100 rounds, he's 2nd in Tee-to-Green and GIR, and Top 20 in everything except 3-Putt Avoidance and Proximity from 150-175 yards. To make the playoffs, Sergio needs a Solo 24th or better. It's a bit risky, but he's still a Top 5 player in this field that's in a slump. I'll take the discount in tournaments. (GPP)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Joaquin Niemann (9,700, FEC N/A) is a special temporary member, who has earned enough points to gain full membership for next season. But, as a special temporary member, there is only one way he gets into the Playoffs: Win this week. He has been trending down, but stats are still great (1st in Birdies or Better, 9th in GIR, 11th Tee-to-Green, and 13th in Approach). My instinct is to fade, but want to look at him more before deciding.
- Russell Henley (9,400) was 50th at PGA last week, and only reason he missed cut at The Open was due to a 2nd round 80. Good form prior to the past 2 majors, he is 1st in 3-Putt Avoidance and is Top 26 in every stat except Proximity from 150-175 yards (95th).
- Daniel Berger (9,300) mentioned on Twitter on Monday that he played the final 3 rounds with a "minor wrist injury." He's 83rd on FedEx Cup Points, so he's in the Playoffs. 2nd in Approach. Injury is enough for me to fade.
- Ryan Moore (9,000) won here in 2009 and has gained 14.5 strokes the past three years here. Has been up and down in his past four starts with two top 15s and two finishes in the 50s. Ranks 2nd Tee-to-Green and 9th in Approach.
Cash: Moore, Henley Playable
GPP: Niemann, Henley, Moore
Harold Varner III (8,900)
HV3 has been playing really well as of late, with a 5th, 6th, and 17th in his last three events. He was one of the highest owned plays back at the Canadian Open so we will see what people do with a price increase. On FanDuel, he's almost a must play in cash games at 9,300. He also ranks very high in my stat model: 3rd Tee-to-Green and Proximity from 150-175 yards, 7th in Approach, 9th in Birdies or Better, and 12th in GIR. Personally, I would rather play Moore for 100 more. For me, Varner is a GPP play on DK, but very playable in all formats on FanDuel. (GPP, Cash on FanDuel)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Julian Suri (8,700) has some decent results recently, including a 2nd at the French Open, 28th at The Open, and 27th at the PGA. Probably will go underowned due to him mainly playing on Euro Tour. 10th in Birdies or Better and 21st in 3-Putt Avoidance, stats a little skewed since Euro Tour isn't included. No other stats great. This is a world ranking/form play.
- Steve Stricker (8,300) has only missed one cut in 10 PGA Tour events, with a 12th being his best finish. Does rank 14th Tee-to-Green and 25th in Birdies or Better. Weakness is Proximity from 150-175 yards for both 24 and 100 rounds. Probably a better cash game play.
Tyler Duncan (7,300, #106 FEC)
Duncan was on the fringes of my radar before starting my research this week. However, he became directly on my radar once I ran the stats, and he ranked #1 for the past 24 rounds. Duncan ranks 1st in Approach, 3rd in GIR, and 4th Tee-to-Green. Worst stat is 65th in 3-Putt Avoidance. Most of this checks out over 100 rounds, with the same stats being his best (Top 16 in Approach, GIR, and Tee-to-Green), while 3-Putt Avoidance being his worst. He's made 11 straight cuts with two Top 25s in his past three events. At this price, if he continues to finish around 30th-40th, he will do just fine. If he plays as well as his stats indicate, he will be one of the best plays this week. (Cash and GPP)
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Chad Campbell (7,700, #126 FEC) is the bubble boy right now. He's three points behind Van Aswegen, meaning he has to beat Van Aswegen (unless both are Top 20 or so). Has two Top 10s the past four events, including a 7th at Barracuda. Not great stats over both 24 and 100 rounds, so would be a form play.
- Chris Kirk (7,500) has made 10 cuts in a row with three Top 11 finishes in that span, including a 31st at the PGA last week. 3rd in Approach and 10th in Par 4 SG: 400-450, he's Top 30 in every stat except 3-Putt Avoidance (66th).
- Whee Kim (7,400) intrigues me. He was 2nd at the Canadian Open and bounced back from a 75 on Thursday at Bellerive to shoot 67. Has made 8 of his last 10 cuts. Ranks 4th in Birdies or Better, 8th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, and 14th in Approach.
- Bronson Burgoon (7,400) is a GPP only play here. In last 10 events, he's missed the cut 6 times. But the four times he didn't: 2nd, 6th, 16th, and 30th. 8th Tee-to-Green, 9th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 10th in Approach, he's Top 35 in every stat except Proximity: 150-175 yards (130th).
- Sam Ryder (7,300 #115 FEC) should be safe to make Playoffs, and has had some decent results lately: 2nd at John Deere and 7th at Barbasol. Did struggle to a 78th at Canadian Open. 4th in GIR, 6th in Birdies or Better, 7th Tee-to-Green, and 8th in Proximity: 150-175 yards. Problem: 147th in 3-Putt Avoidance.
- Bill Haas (7,200 #150 FEC) needs a Top 4 finish to make Playoffs. Lucky for him, he has played well here in the past, with five straight Top 25s prior to last year, which included a 2nd, 6th, and 7th. Only stat that is in his favor is 6th in 3-Putt Avoidance, as his form is awful: In last 7 tournaments, he has missed cut 5 times and the two finishes were in the 70s.
- Sam Saunders (7,100 #120 FEC) is 47 points clear of Van Aswegen. He has two Top 10s in last four events (MC and 60th between the Top 10s), but his stats are not great. Has made cut here in all 3 attempts.
- Robert Garrigus (7,000 #127 FEC) Needs a solo 45th or better to have a chance. Has five top 30s, 4 missed cuts, and a 66th place finish in his last 10 events. Does have an 11th and 22nd at Sedgefield in the past. 21st in Par 4 SG: 400-450 and 29th Tee-to-Green, is average or slightly above average in other stats.
Cash: Kirk, Ryder
Thoughts in This Tier:
- Mackenzie Hughes (6,800, #159 FEC) has had a rough year, and needs a Top 3 finish to play next week in the Playoffs. Had made five straight cuts with three Top 30s before missing cut at Barracuda. Top 50 in every stat, including 6th in Approach, and 13th in GIR and Birdies or Better.
- Tyrone Van Aswegen (6,600 #125 FEC) probably wishes he was entering in better form, having missed 7 of his last 10 cuts, though was 37th at Barracuda. His 9th in the first event of the year is keeping him at #125. I'm not playing him, but don't be surprised if he gets a little chatter as the last guy in right now.
- Corey Conners (6,500 #128 FEC) needs a solo 36th or better to have a chance. He's missed two cuts in a row, with him losing strokes around the green and putting. Does rank 9th Tee-to-Green, and 19th in Approach and GIR.
Cash: Hughes is Playable
GPP: Hughes, Conners
This feels like a balanced lineup week for me, as I'm not in love with the 10k or 6k tier. I'm probably scaling back a little bit since this a weaker field, and I may be taking some risks on guys around the 125 bubble. I will update later this week with any field additions, ownership trends, and weather forecasts Good luck with your lineups and feel free to contact me on Twitter (@skeeterrobinson) if you have any questions or suggestions.