I have decided to write a brief article each week where I take a look at how a player has done in the past in a similar type of situation. I will mainly look at matchups against the same team: however, I may look at home/road splits, grass/turf, or any other split that has an impact. Not all of my writeups will a recommendation to play someone. It may be a reason not to play a player. I'll look at three such plays each week and while most will probably be division matchups, I'll look at players who maybe have played a certain team a lot in the recent past.
Julio Jones (Home vs New Orleans)
I am writing this Thursday night, and while he hasn't practiced, he should play on Sunday. As I look at Julio's past performances vs the Saints, I'm surprised to see that he has only scored three touchdowns in 13 career games vs the Saints. I am using the past four years as my sample size, and only home games vs the Saints:
- 2014: 7 receptions on 9 targets for 116 yards (21.6 DK Points)
- 2015: 9 receptions on 11 targets for 149 yards (25.9 DK Points)
- 2016: 7 receptions on 9 targets for 96 yards, TD (22.6 DK Points)
- 2017: 5 receptions on 11 targets for 98 yards (13.8 DK Points)
- 4-Year Average: 7 receptions, 10 targets, 115 yards, .25 TD (20 DK Points)
His price is 7,900 on DraftKings this week, which seems low on him. We typically look for a 3x return on salary, which means we would need him to get 23.7 points to reach that threshold. He has only done that once in the past four games in this exact matchup. With the lack of touchdowns in this matchup, both home and away, and still some offensive struggles in the red zone, I would limit Julio to cash games. I just don't see a 4x-5x value on him in this matchup.
Drew Brees (Away at Atlanta)
We typically like Brees at home when he's in the dome. But, a trip to Atlanta will keep him and the Saints indoors on the fast track. So what has his last 5 years been like in Atlanta?
- 2013: 278 Yards, 2 TD (19.12 DK Points)
- 2014: 333 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (19.32 DK Points)
- 2015: 323 Yards, 1 TD (19.92 DK Points)
- 2016: 350 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (24 DK Points)
- 2017: 271 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (17.84 DK Points)
- 5-Year Average: 311 Yards, 1.6 TD, 0.6 INT (18.24 DK Points)
I do like the 6,400 price for Brees on DK. But, this matchup isn't as good as we may think. Even when we include the games in New Orleans into this 5-year sample, he has only thrown for 3 touchdowns once, and never more. He does have seven 300+ yard games if looking for that bonus.Like Julio, I think he is a fine cash game play: However, I don't think his upside in this matchup is as high as most would think, and probably not a tournament play for me.
Carson Wentz (Home vs Colts)
Wentz makes his return in Week 3 and draws a nice matchup at home vs the Colts. I decided to look at his home/road splits the first two years he's been in the league:
- Away (15 Games): 59.32% Completion, 3,780 Yards, 22 TD, 13 INT. 81.7 QB Rating
- Home (14 Games): 64.2% Completion, 3,298 Yards, 27 TD, 8 INT, 97.7 QB Rating
- Eight 300-Yard passing Games, 3 at home. In 2017, he has four 4-TD games: three were at home
At 6,200 on DK, he has tournament intrigue, especially with two running backs out for the Eagles. The Colts have given up 250 passing yards/game so far, so there is some optimism with Wentz at home. I wouldn't play him in cash games, but if he is healthy and close to his normal self, he has 4x upside and maybe higher in this matchup.