Sheshan International GC: Shanghai, China Par 72, 7,261 Yards
Defending Champion: Justin Rose (-14) by two over Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, and Brooks Koepka
Primary Stats- SG: Tee-to-Green, Fairways Gained, GIR, SG: Approach, Par 5 SG, Birdies or Better, DK Scoring
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
The golf world is split up this week, with the top players in Shanghai for the last World Golf Championship of the year, while the alternate PGA Tour Event is in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms. While DK is offering both contests, the larger contests are aimed at the WGC-HSBC Champions, and will be the one I'm writing about this week. I don't plan on playing the Sanderson Farms, outside of a One and Done pick that I have to make in a season-long contest.
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The last of the Wednesday evening roster locks until next year at this time, rosters will lock at 8:50 pm EST.
The past two years, we've seen a winning score of -14 and -23. Even looking at the stats, the number of birdies is significantly higher than bogies, and is why I included both DK Scoring and Birdies or Better. It is by far, the best field we will see during the Fall Swing with seven of the top ten golfers in the world playing this week. DraftKings has tightened up their pricing, having 13 golfers at 9,000 or above, and a very deep 8k tier. Yet, there are some names in the low 7k and 6k range that are lower than we are used to seeing. But, I think the biggest key this week besides ownership is the Euro Tour players. The casual golfers are going to skip over them, despite some being in really good form or setting up well for a short Par 72 course with four Par 5s. Don't be afraid to look up some of these Euro Tour players and play them. I will mention a few in this article, including who I think will be a sub 5% play in the low to mid 6k range. That leads me to a Stars and Scrubs build, but figuring out if I want to play one guy above 10k with two 9k players, or play two guys above 10k and go from there is something I'll let ownership and more research determine between now and 8:50 pm EST Wednesday night.
Dustin Johnson (11,500), Justin Rose (11,200), and Brooks Koepka (11,000)
I don't mind Matsuyama here either, but I don't see him fitting my lineup build, especially when I think I like some in the 9k range just as much as Hideki. But for these Top 3, it's going to be tough to narrow them down to one or two (I'm only playing one lineup). For DJ, he is the course horse here, with a win, 2nd, and 5th in his last 4 starts at this event. Justin Rose is the defending champion, who has been solid all year. And Koepka is coming off a dominating win last week at the CJ Cup, and we know how he does at big events in 2018. All are Top 10 Tee-to-Green, Birdies or Better Gained, and DK Points: DJ is 3rd in Approach, Koepka is #1 in Par 5 SG, and Rose hits the most fairways. When I factor in price, I think my order is Koepka, DJ, and Rose in that order from favorite to 3rd favorite. You can't fit all three in (maybe on FanDuel you could), but I'll be ready to drop any of them if one is becoming way too chalky. (All 3 are Cash Game and GPP plays)
Tommy Fleetwood (9,500)
In his last ten events worldwide (Open Championship to British Masters), Fleetwood has four Top 10s, nine Top 25s, and a worst finish of 35th. On the year, he has nine Top 10s in 25 starts, which is amazing consistency. Fleetwood ranks 2nd in Par 5 SG, 3rd in Birdies or Better, 6th in DK Points, and 7th in GIR. He's had decent history here, finishing anywhere from 18th to 30th since 2012, and that's the only concern here at this price. But, I love the form and stats, and as a 2nd golfer in lineups, is a nice compliment to pair with any golfer priced above him. (Cash and GPP)
Others I May Consider: Francesco Molinari (would consider Tony Finau if he is under 20% ownership, but I don't think that will happen)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (8,700)
It seems like I've picked a golfer each week in the Fall Swing that I usually don't play much. Fitzpatrick is the guy for me this week. He's 40th in the world, and mainly plays on the Euro Tour. He has a tendency to pop at majors now and then and is a volatile player. But, he has a win, 7th, and 16th in his last four events (missed cut at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). It's the course history though that has me interested, with a 7th, 9th, and 16th at this event the last three years. His stats are ok: 8th in Fairways Gained and 13th in GIR. This may be a good spot for him as he falls in this 8k range that could go overlooked in a stars and scrubs lineup build. I won't play him if I do go that route, but I can see myself using him in One-and-Done though. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Rafa Cabrera Bello, Adam Scott if playing 20+ lineups (Patrick Cantlay fine as well if lower ownership; same boat as Finau)
Eddie Pepperell (7,300)
At the start of July, Pepperell was ranked 117th in the world. He is currently 33rd. What has he done to improve the world ranking? Nine straight made cuts with six Top 10s, which include a 2nd and a win in his last start at the British Masters. This is a form and world ranking play at a price that is usually not reserved for the 33rd ranked golfer in the world. His stats aren't complete, since he only has 20 rounds in StatTracker based courses. In that, he is 20th in Approach, 21st in GIR, and 24th in Birdies or Better. He had 25 birdies in his 2nd place finish last month and 4 eagles in his win. This looks like a misprice by DraftKings, but with him being a Euro player, could go overlooked this week and makes sense in all formats. (Cash and GPP)
Others I May Consider: Thorbjorn Olesen, Kyle Stanley, Ryan Fox, Julian Suri, C.T. Pan
Erik Van Rooyen (6,400)
The South African made his presence felt on the Sunshine Tour in 2017, and has had a decent rookie campaign on the Euro Tour, with four Top 10s. This includes a 4th at the Irish Open (drew a nice international field) and a 5th at the Portugal Masters. He also finished 17th at the Open Championship this year. I like his performance in a couple of those bigger events. He's very limited statistically (4 rounds), but in his Game Log on DraftKings, he has three events where he made over 20 birdies. EVR has missed his last two cuts, but had two Top 10s in the three starts prior to those missed cuts. He's a salary saver with Top 25 upside: A combo I will take at 6,400, especially with some scoring ability as well. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Matt Wallace, Adam Hadwin
A lot of international players doesn't mean that I don't like some of the American players: I'm trying to get you familiar with some of these names if you decide to take some flyers on them. Don't forget about the Wednesday night lock this week. Good luck this week in all of your contests.