First-round fantasy picks show up in the week 7 list, as we have three division games that we can look at for past histories. Use this as a tiebreaker or to look into someone a little deeper with their matchup. Of course, things change from year to year as well, so while these give us some insight as to what may happen, it's not a guarantee.
Ezekiel Elliott (8,100 on DK, @ Washington)
Washington has been a tough run defense, allowing 90 rushing yards a game and 4.1 yards per carry. Based on that, Zeke may be in for a tough matchup. We know Zeke is a very large part of the Dallas offense, so maybe by volume alone, he can do well. But, if we look at his past matchups vs Washington, we find that Elliott may be in a good spot to succeed.
- 2016 @ Washington: 83 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 4 Yards
- 2016 @ Home: 97 Rushing Yards, 2 TD, 2 Receptions, 23 Yards
- 2017 @ Washington: 150 Rushing Yards, 2 TD, 1 Reception, 4 Yards
- 3-Game Averages: 110 Rushing Yards, 1.67 TD, 1.67 Receptions, 10 Yards (26.6 DK Points, 3.28x)
Elliott had 3+ receptions in every game prior to last week's blowout win over Jacksonville. This should be a slower paced game so Elliott should see a lot of volume. He makes for a nice pivot off of Gurley this week, or a nice complement if you want to jam in the RB and go cheap elsewhere.
Todd Gurley (9,800 on DK, @ San Francisco)
Gurley is matchup proof, but you may need some convincing to pay up this much for him against a 49ers team that has been solid against the run this year, allowing 95 yards a game and 3.7 yards per carry. So I took a look at the history against the 49ers and it's a mixed result.
- 2015 @ St. Louis: 133 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 13 Yards
- 2016 @ San Francisco: 47 Rushing Yards, 1 Reception, -5 Yards
- 2016 @ Los Angeles: 67 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 20 Yards
- 2017 @ San Francisco: 113 Rushing Yards, 2 TD, 5 Recptions, 36 Yards, 1 TD
- 4-year Average: 90 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD, 3 Receptions, 16 Yards, .25 TD (21.1 DK Points, 2.15x)
The numbers are certainly better if we take away the two games in 2016, when Jeff Fisher was in the final year and teams stacked the box against Gurley. This game was a 41-38 shootout a year ago and the only difference is that it's C.J. Beathard at QB for the 49ers, not Brian Hoyer. With Cooper Kupp out, we may see some more checkdowns to Gurley. I have no problem playing him at such a high price, and what he did in this game a year ago. But, if you think he produces at a similar rate as that 2015 game (26.3 DK Points), you could argue for a fade if you can find the value elsewhere.
DeAndre Hopkins (6,900 on DK, @ Jacksonville)
Hopkins vs Ramsey is always a fun matchup. Hopkins price below 7k is quite intriguing, but we will have to see what his injury status is this week, as he did not practice on Thursday. But if he plays and you are considering him, here are the results in his four games against Ramsey and Jacksonville.
- 2016 @ Jacksonville: 13 Targets, 5 Receptions, 48 Yards
- 2016 @ Houston: 17 Targets: 8 Receptions, 87 Yards
- 2017 @ Houston: 16 Targets: 5 Receptions, 55 Yards, 1 TD
- 2017 @ Jacksonville: 13 Targets: 4 Receptions, 80 Yards, 1 TD
- 4-Game Average: 14.75 Targets: 5.5 Receptions, 67.5 Yards, 0.5 TD (15.3 DK Points, 2.21x)
Injury concerns for both him and Watson are enough that he's not playable in cash. However, taking a look at the number of targets he has had in these games and his always enormous upside, he may be worth a flyer in tournaments at this price.