OHL Classic at Mayakoba
El Camaleon: Playa Del Carmen, Mexico Par 71, 6,987 Yards
Defending Champion: Patton Kizzire (-19) by one over Rickie Fowler
Primary Stats- SG: Tee-to-Green, GIR, SG: Approach, DK Points, Birdies or Better
Timeframe: Past 24 Rounds unless specified.
After coming back to the states, the Tour heads out of the country to Mexico for the OHL Classic, the second to last event of the Fall Swing. There are some good names at the top, but outside of them, it's a weaker field. Slow greens and a birdie-fest opens this up to an event that anyone can win.
I mentioned that the greens here are some of the slowest that you will see all year. Slower greens will tend to favor weaker putters, or at least them more even to good putters. It is a coastal coure, so wind could always play a role into things. However, Windfinder doesn't have significant wind impact happening, and if there is any, it's on the weekend. Like a lot of these Fall Swing events, you will need to have golfers that make a lot of birdies and eagles to contend this week.Form is going to be a big factor for me, but I'm looking for Tee-to-Green stats as well, particularly if a player has been losing strokes due to putting. With that negated a bit this week, I want the ball strikers.
Gary Woodland (10,700)
I really thought I would write up Finau or Fowler here, maybe even Horschel. All three are fine, but the more I looked at it, the more I liked Woodland. I think 10,700 is the most we have paid for him, but that could help come ownership time. He's had a great Fall Swing, with a 2nd, 5th, and 10th so far. He also finished the Playoffs with an 11th and a 12th, so he's in great form. He was runner-up here two years ago before finishing 34th last year. Woodland ranks 1st in Birdies or Better and DK Points, 3rd in Approach, and 5th Tee-to-Green. I like how he finished with a 63 at the Shriners' last week and hoping he continues that into this week. (Cash and GPP)
Others I May Consider: Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler
Aaron Wise (9,900)
I was debating between Wise and List, but couldn't turn down Wise. He finished the season with a 15th and 16th, and was 15th last week, with 27 birdies (12 bogeys and one double). He missed the cut here last year and was 55th two years ago: but, I think he's better now than he was in past years. Wise is 3rd in GIR and Birdies or Better, 15th Tee-to-Green, and 44th in Approach. His approach numbers are solid, but still positive.The price is high, so I wouldn't be surprised if I go down to List. But if I can afford Wise, I like his potential in GPPs. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Luke List
Joaquin Niemann (8,800)
Niemann is going to be in consideration for me every week until he wins. He rates out great statistically (3rd Tee-to-Green, 10th in Approach) and has been consistent in those stats. His putting has been the weakness, but I think that gets balanced out this week. What I'm concerned with is last week, he only made 15 birdies (made 4 eagles, but how likely is that?). In summary, I love the Tee-to-Green game, but the lack of birdies lately is a concern. But if he gets to even in strokes gained putting, and he may be able to on these greens, I think he contends. It just is a matter of how many birdies he can make. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Sam Ryder, Abraham Ancer, C.T. Pan
Robert Streb (7,000)
This is my weekly play that I don't think I have played in a while. Streb has been a bit inconsistent lately, missing quite a few cuts, but having a 10th and 11th at the end of the season. It wasn't enough for him to get his card, but he won the first event of the web.com Tour Finals, and is coming off a 26th at the Sanderson Farms and 4th at the Shriners. He's not a great putter, but when his ball striking is one, he's gaining 7+ strokes (last three Top 11 finishes has that common trait). He is 6th in Approach and 8th in GIR. With light rough, he shouldn't be harmed off-the-tee. He's risky, but the upside at 7k is hard to pass up. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Sungjae Im, Kevin Chappell, Denny McCarthy, Harold Varner III, Anders Albertson
Danny Lee (6,900)
Lee is a streaky golfer, and though he is in good form, you won't see me ever listing him as a cash game play. Lee has a 3rd and 25th in the last two starts that he didn't withdraw in Mayakoba. Lee has made all three cuts in the Fall Swing, including a 10th place finish at the Safeway. He hasn't put together four rounds yet, always having one round over par. Lee ranks 8th in DK Points, 16th Tee-to-Green, and 23rd in GIR. Talent wise, he's among the best in this range, but his inconsistency keeps him here. A good upside, risky type of play. (GPP)
Others I May Consider: Shawn Stefani, Brice Garnett (Course History), Hunter Mahan, Mackenzie Hughes
It's a weird week for me. I like some options in the 6k range, but don't love anyone in the 10k range. I'll let ownership make my decision as far as what top priced golfers I will play. This feels like a higher variance type of week, but that's what is fun about these weeks.Good luck this week in all of your contests.