Like NFC East Football? If so, you'll love the showdown slates to end Week 10, with Dallas and Philadelphia playing Sunday night and the Giants traveling cross-country on Monday night to face the 49ers. Coming into Week 10, I have noticed a few trends in the winning lineups in the $10, 150-Max Showdown night showdown contests this season (26 total):
- Only three times has the real-life winning team (NE twice, ATL once) only had 2 players on it for the winning lineup. Only six times has it been a 3-3 split. Meaning 2/3 of the time, the winning lineup has had 4 or 5 players on the winning team. Figure out the team you think will win, and make sure to have at least three players, but four or five is preferred.
- The winning lineup has not featured more than two kickers and defenses, combined.
- 1/3 of the time (eight) has the winning lineup had a player priced at $2,000 or lower.
It's still a small sample size but still enough of a sample to try and see if there are any trends. I'll continue to look for these trends each week and will share what I find here.
Monday Night
Giants
Sorry this didn't come out until Monday: Sunday was a busy day for me and prices didn't get released until Sunday for this slate.
With the Giants, it's pretty easy to figure out who we want: Saquon Barkley (12,800) and Odell Beckham (11,800). If you could only have one, I prefer Barkley. He has double digit targets in each of his last three games, leading to nine catches in each of those three games. San Francisco is about league average against pass catching RB and in rush defense. What attracts me the most is that he is averaging over 2x salary this year, and his "worst" game was 20.1 points. The only thing against him is that he has only hit the 100 yard bonus twice this year. As for Beckham, he has seen double-digit targets in all but one game this year, and has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games. The Giants look to be using him more recently and while Richard Sherman is a good corner, I don't think he can stop Odell. Honestly, try to find a way to get both Beckham and Barkley into your lineups.
As for the rest of the Giants, Eli Manning (8,600) has put up solid totals on the road this year: 14.5, 19.8, 24.2, and 23.7. I'm one who rarely likes to take Eli, but the numbers and matchup have me rostering him, and potentially putting him as captain. Sterling Shepard (7,200) is your boom/bust player. He has three games of 20+ points, one game at 11.5, and three below ten. He does average three more points on the road, and the price is not bad. If stacking Giants or not playing one of Barkley/Beckham, Shepard is a great value against a 49ers defense that is 25th vs #2 WR. The 49ers are 5th worst against #3 WR, making Bennie Fowler (1,200) a great punt play. He has played two games with New York this season, seeing 55% of the snaps in Week 7, and 69% in Week 8, which included four catches on seven targets. The four catches alone gets him well over 3x. This looks like the biggest mispricing on this slate, so roster him. The 49ers do struggle against tight ends, but and Evan Engram (5,000) is coming back off of injury. With 9 targets in his lasat game, I don't mind pivoting off of Shepard to Engram. I don't have much interest in Aldrick Rosas (3,400) or the Giants Defense (2,600) but if I had to finish out a roster with one, I would take a chance on the Giants Defense against a QB making his second start of his career.
Captains: Barkley, Beckham, Manning, Shepard. If you can get Barkley or Beckham as captain, do that, as they should have the highest point totals of anyone in this game.
49ers
The 49ers are the team here where I don't think they have any definite plays. The Giants are 27th in DVOA against the pass, meaning Nick Mullens (9,800) could be in line for another strong game. He threw for three TD and 262 yards against the Raiders in his debut. Though it was an exciting start and we know Eli Manning is past his prime, I'm not sure Mullens should be priced higher than Eli, let alone by 1,200. This feels like a strategic fade for me on Mullens, though I don't think he's a bad play at all. George Kittle (9,400) has the same profile as Sterling Shepard. When he finds the end zone, he gets 20+ points (two of those included 100 yard receiving games). When he doesn't, he only has one game over 10 fantasy points. While he does see the most targets of anyone in this game, he has yet to catch more than six passes in a game. The Giants, who were really awufl against the TE in 2017, are now #6 DVOA against this year. I think I will pass on Kittle, but has the big play ability to win you a GPP if you think he is going to go off. Robbie Gould (4,200) has only missed one field goal this season, and only two games where he didn't kick more than two field goals. I prefer him over Rosas at Kicker.
The running back situation looks like a mess. Matt Breida (8,200) is the lead guy, and while he doesn't have an injury designation, has been dealing with multiple injuries for weeks. Alfred Morris (3,800) looks like he's only getting touches due to injuries. With Raheem Mostert breaking his arm last game, the only other RB in the player pool is fullback Kyle Juszczyk (2,400) who has outsnapped both Breida and Morris this season. The Giants are 18th against the rush, and 9th against pass-catching RBs. When healthy, Breida put up some nice numbers; however, in the last three games with his injuries, he has yet to average four yards a carry. While he certainly has upside, I think he is a risky play at this price point. Alfred Morris is a zero in the pass game and with a limited role, I will pass. I may have some interest in Juszczyk at his price, as he does have two catches or more in all but two games this season. I could see him being used more with Mostert out and if the team wants to limit Breida a little bit.
Finally, the wide receiver corps is a bit tricky. Pierre Garcon is out, and if looking at who has been on the field the most, it is Marquise Goodwin (6,400). Goodwin is the deep play threat who has not had more than four catches in a game. However, the Giants are 28th against #1 WR, and Goodwin has the ability to break a big play at any moment. Richie James Jr. (1,600) saw the second highest amount of snaps last week (not including Garcon), catching two of three targets. I prefer Fowler in this punt range, but if James is going to see a similar amount of snaps, he's in play. Two weeks ago, Kendrick Bourne (2,000) saw 82% of the snaps without Garcon, and was targeted ten times. Last week, 22% of the snaps with two targets and a TD. At 2k, I think he's worth a flyer as he does have some games where he has been targeted. However, I am worried that he may have been a favorite of C.J. Beathard, and may not translate to Nick Mullens.Trent Taylor (2,800) should be back this week and I think qualifies as the team's #3 WR, though he hasn't seen more than 33% of the snaps recently. Finally, Dante Pettis (1,800) only has one target in the last four games. He seems to be out of favor with the 49ers right now. If I had to rank the WR in order of preference, it would be Bourne, Goodwin, James, Taylor, Pettis. However, I am not fully confident in that order. The key to winning this showdown slate may be correctly picking which 49er WR goes off, if any.
Captains: Goodwin (if playing 20+ lineups), Breida if you think he sees 15-20 touches and returns to early season form now that he's healthy.
Sunday Night
Cowboys
The first player to pop to mind for Dallas is Ezekiel Elliott (9,800). This is a week where I don't think he is a must play, as he should be popular since he's under 10k. The Eagles allow the second fewest yards per game rushing, and are league average in DVOA against pass catching running backs. Elliott has only had two games this season where he would be over 2x at this price (one game right at 2x). But there are enough decent values that you can play Elliott from a floor perspective. The weakness Philadelphia has on defense is they do struggle against #2 WRs. This means I would be interested in Cole Beasley (6,600) who did have 19 targets in the two prior games to last week's four target outing. But the player I am most interested in is Michael Gallup (2,200), who has seen target counts of 5 and 6 the past two weeks. The price is really good on him, and is worth considering. Finally, Dak Prescott (9,200) is ok. Like Elliott, he has only gone over 2x twice this season at his price (one other time right on it). His rushing upside always gives him a chance to get above 2x, but it's the passing that concerns me. From a raw points perspective, you are fine taking him or Elliott if you like the other values. However, I don't think you have to force either one into your lineups.
Captains: Dak and Elliott are fine from a floor perspective, but not sure I want to go here. Gallup would be a perfect captain if trying to play all of the expensive Eagles options.
Eagles
I don't have much interest in the running game for the Eagles here. Dallas ranks 4th in DVOA vs the run and gives up less than four yards a carry. But, I don't think that means Wendell Smallwood (5,000) is out of play. Dallas does give up production to pass catching running backs and Smallwood has seen 50% of the snaps the past two games for the Eagles. Carson Wentz (12,800) is the projected highest scoring guy in this game, and he's priced as such. Dallas is 26th in DVOA vs the Pass and Wentz has been averaging over 20 points a game. The price is high and his ability to get to 2.5x-3x could be tough; however, I think he's fine from a raw points perspective. Dallas has been tougher against #1 WR than any other position, but we saw Corey Davis have a big week on MNF against Dallas.
Alshon Jeffery (8,800) has 8+ targets in four of his five games this year, with three games over 20 fantasy points. He may be my captain, as he seems like he won't be affected by the Tate acquisition as much as others in this offense may. I would like to fit in Zach Ertz (11,000) but that price is high, and with doubts about how many targets he loses to Golden Tate (7,800), that is a big ask. Though I'm not going to be as high on Elliott as others this week, I think I would take Zeke over Ertz, even if Ertz has the better matchup. Dallas Goedert (3,600) is the cheaper TE for the Eagles who has caught a TD in two straight games. He's more of a last roster spot guy with some upside in a decent matchup. Tate is intriguing, as Wentz does like throwing across the middle to tight ends and slot receivers. I like him if trying to stack the Eagles offense. Outside of that, I don't see many other values, outside of the Eagles Defense (3,800) as a floor play.
Captains: Jefferey or Wentz for me. Wentz is hard to fit in with pricing this week; but not impossible.
