James and Skeeter's Favorites by Tier
Nothing to worry about the first two days. Temperatures around 70 degrees, winds around 5 mph. Saturday could be a wet day, especially in the afternoon. No Tee Time Wave Advantages are seen due to weather.
There isn't perfect agreement between Fantasy National and FanShare Sports on Ownership. Generally, everyone 9,200 and above will be 10%+ owned, with the exception being Xander Schauffele. He may be the only one to end up under 10%. In no particular order, here is the list of players who could I think could approach or exceed 20%: Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Byeong Hun-An, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Martin Laird.
There are a lot of other names that could get close, but this seems to be a good enough list. Those who are ranking strong in tournament history are getting a lot of attention this week (Brendan Steele, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Martin Laird) and could end up over 20 percent in the end. Other players who may be more popular than others in the same price range: Talor Gooch, Joel Dahmen, Anders Albertson, and Lucas Glover. This isn't to say that none of them will come in under 10% or that others not mentioned couldn't be above 15%. This is just the trend of the names I've seen and heard about this week, and who may be showing up in stat models or optimal lineup projections.
- While Tournament History is driving up the ownership on some, it's not driving up ownership on others. Other players with good histories at TPC Scottsdale that are trending to be under 10% owned: Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Kyle Stanley, Billy Horschel, and J.B. Holmes.
- A thing that can go overlooked is Top 50 golfers in the world rankings, who aren't from North America. They can be mispriced and not get a ton of ownership, since people aren't as familiar with them as others. Three such golfers this week that are all under 8% projected ownership: Tyrell Hatton, Alex Noren, and Kiradech Aphibarnrat. I am only using Hatton of this group, but I don't mind Noren or Aphibarnrat as high-upside, low-owned options.
- One thing you may notice among the recent winners (includes Brooks Koepka, who isn't playing here this week) is that they all tend to be longer hitters off the tee. The rough isn't bad here and a bad tee shot into the desert may end up ok, if it's not right next to a cactus. Don't be surprised if you see some of the longer hitters at the top of the leaderboard, and carrying higher ownership. However, when you look at some names of players with past success here, you will notice there are some good ball strikers in there as well. Don't feel like you have to choose all long-hitters.
- I have Talor Gooch as my favorite play in the 7k range. I am using him, but very sparingly due to the high ownership projections. If I had to redo my favorite 7k play, it's Tyrell Hatton (7,900). He has played well in the past in Dubai, which is a similar type of desert environment. This is also a World Ranking vs Price play for me. He's talented enough to compete here and really like this price.
The last game of the NFL season is upon us. I have been writing Showdown slate articles since October and have one written for the last game as well. In this article, I also have a link to a spreadsheet that shows every winning primetime Showdown Slate lineup the entire season. If you're playing the game on Sunday, take a look at it.
With pitchers and catcher reporting soon, baseball is revving up. If you play season-long baseball, give our sister company, Fantistics, a look with their in-season news and analysis package, and the draft software. From personal experience, the draft software is great. It's especially great if you're in a league that has a weird format or any auction league. There is a free trial for the software available as well. Take a look here if interested.