Favorite Plays by Tier
The wind is what determines how hard this course is. When it's gusty like last year, we see the +6 cut. When it's fairly moderate, it's still a tough course but you will see much better scores. When I look at the past three years of where this tournament ranks, it's among the Top 10 toughest courses in that time, being the 2nd toughest last year. When I was looking at the past three years of course rankings, one course that kept showing up in the same range as PGA National was TPC Southwind, host of the FedEx St. Jude Classic (will now be the WGC- FedEx St. Jude). There are players that I noticed who have played both courses well, including some players that I expect to be in the 6k and 7k range. Something to consider as you start your research.
Roster Lock: 6:45 am EST (5:45 CST, 4:45 MST, 3:45 PST)
Notice the big shift in roster lock time, as the tour is now on the east coast. You will to have your finalized lineups in the contests you want Wednesday night. Just be aware of this.
11:30 PM EST Update
Full disclosure on a couple of things. First, I did not end up using Russell Knox in any lineups. While I think he's a good play, his price didn't fit my builds this week, and potential high ownership is enough for me not to force him into any lineups.
Also, in the update below, I said I would probably end up changing lineups. I'm actually keeping my original builds as I do have one player in each lineup that could be under 10% owned. I'm only playing three lineups this week, so it's not as bold as if I was doing 10 or 20.
Looking at Windfinder.com, it looks like we won't see any 10 mph winds for the first two days. Any chance of gusts over 10 mph would be early Thursday morning, with the calmest winds the first two days being Thursday afternoon. Possibly a brief shower Friday morning, but nothing that looks like it will cause a delay. I don't think you need to base lineups decisions on weather, though it does look like the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave would have a slight weather advantage. Not enough for me to change who I like; but, possibly a really deep tiebreaker if needed.
There are weeks where I look and see some vast differences between Fantasy National and FanShare Sports. This is not one of those weeks, as there looks to be a lot of agreement on not only who's at the top, but even specific percentages. There aren't many above or close to 20%, so it may end up being spread out more than usual this week. In no particular order, here is who is projected to be the highest owned golfers this week: Justin Thomas, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Russell Knox, Lucas Glover, and Stewart Cink (10-12% in 6k range, only reason I'm listing him here. Not high compared to whole field).
I hate this list, as I have a lot of these players in my core. I will be having to make some decisions, though I may have one or two lower owned plays. It also has me thinking about Rickie Fowler, who is around 15%. Not sure I end up going here, but would be a thought at top if I want to be different. Other players around or below 10% that I didn't have in my core but will consider now for ownership purposes: Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch, Dylan Fritelli, and Harold Varner III
- You did notice in the ownership section that Michael Thompson didn't get mentioned. He's around 15% right now, but I could see him as someone who ends up closer to 20%, once people see that he isn't going to be major chalk like everyone predicted. If you don't think that's the case and you like him, don't be afraid to play him.
- I do like a couple of lower 6k guys: One being Adam Svensson at 6,000. However, the one I think I would play, if going to this range, would be Lucas Bjerregaard at 6,400. He is the 51st ranked player in the world, playing his second event in North America in the past two years (first was last week in Mexico). He needs a good finish to get into the Top 50 in the world and guarantee a spot at The Players. I don't know how he will do on an American course, but for someone that's 51st in the world, 6,400 seems way too cheap.
- It's a week where we are seeing condensed ownership, with a slight concentration on a few at the top. As I mentioned, I don't like this since a lot of my core guys were included in this. My approach will probably be to play 2-4 of them in a lineup, and find a low owned play or two to go with it. I don't know who I will get off of or get on to do this, but I definitely will be doing some lineup changing now that I see the ownership.
- Good luck this week and I'll talk to you all on Monday with the podcast with just me.
- P.S. James, have fun in Jamaica and I'm taking Adam Scott as my One and Done. I won't tell you my second, though you probably know who it is. Copy at your own risk!