Favorite Plays by Tier
WEDNESDAY UPDATE #2
A rare 2nd update. There is increasing chatter in the industry about the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave getting a huge advantage with the weather. Nothing has really changed on the forecast from the National Weather Service. However, Windfinder is having gusts of 10-20 mph Thursday morning, and the calmest winds being Friday morning. I haven't really seen ownership adjust to this weather. So, I do think at this point, giving a boost to golfers in that Thursday PM/Friday AM wave is warranted. I'm not saying pivot off of Kuchar or Furyk or Im (all Thursday AM) to Spieth (only 10k+ guy with PM/AM time), but use it as a tiebreaker...such as Ryan Moore vs Jason Kokrak for me. Moore is in the favorable wave, and Kokrak isn't with expected chalk. I will be using Moore. As far as my main one and done, it is now Lucas Glover (better draw). In the league where I have to pick two players, I've already used Glover, so I'll stick with Furyk and Luiten. Finally, K.H. Lee has now entered back into consideration in my player pool due to the favorable draw. Not sure I will end up with him, but now is considered.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE #1
Roster Lock: 7:20 am CST (8:20 EST, 6:20 MST, 5:20 PST)
Weather
The National Weather Service has temperatures will be in the mid-80s this week, with winds 10 mph or less. WindFinder has winds picking up on Friday afternoon to closer to 15 mph, with gusts approaching 20 mph. So this could create a slight advantage for the Thursday PM/Friday AM groupings. However, for the first two days, the Thursday AM group will have the softest conditions, as there is expected to be rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Depending on the stance you want to take, I don't think stacking either wave is a horrible move. But, I also don't think that changing your lineups around to fit a certain wave is necessary. It's more of a factor Wednesday night than it was Wednesday afternoon, so making decisions on this is a very viable reason.
Ownership
Some minor disagreements between Fantasy National and FanShare Sports in terms of ownership late on Wednesday afternoon. The only player that both sites have above 20% projected ownership is Jason Kokrak. He continues to be in great form and shows up in the stat models. As far as the rest, here are some of the projected top owned guys, in no particular order: Tony Finau, Byeong-Hun An, Luke List, Sungjae Im, and Abraham Ancer. We are probably looking at a number around 20%, with one maybe going higher and one dropping more into the 17-18 percent range. I still think there are a couple of players not listed here (Glover, Furyk, Moore) who wouldn't surprise me if they ended up as a Top 5 owned player. But, outside of Kokrak, I don't see any definite higher owned plays. I think as long as you are unique with a player or two, this isn't a week that we should see many duplicated lineups or that you have to be afraid of being too similar.
Other Thoughts
- Jim Furyk is my One and Done pick this week. He's playing too well for me to ignore and I want to take him during this hot streak. In my league where I have a second pick, I am using Joost Luiten. The only other place I see myself possibly using him would be the British Open, and I don't think I would do that. I want to save Kuchar, Finau, Im, and Fowler for other events later this season, and I've already used Glover and Kokrak. I do like Lutien, as he is playing really well right now, so I'm willing to take that chance.
- In my final lineup builds, I have two main decisions I'll be making: Moore vs Kokrak, and Niemann vs Dahmen. I like Kokrak more than Moore, but the high ownership on Kokrak has me concerned. If I had to guess as of now, I will probably stick with Kokrak, as I'll just go overweight with him on 2 of my 3 teams. My other debate comes down to the fear of missing out on Niemann vs the better recent form and stats of Dahmen. The way my lineup construction fit, I can only play one of the two. I'm probably leaning Dahmen ever so slightly last now, but think I will end up with Niemann just for the fear of missing out on him.
- DraftKings is starting to add Monday Qualifiers into the player pool on Tuesday. While I don't have any interest in three of them, I did have a slight interest in Corey Conners (6,400). He's very boom/bust, as he's missed a lot of cuts this season: however, when he finds the weekend, he has a 2nd, 3rd, 23rd, and 41st. In tournaments, he's worth a play, especially if playing 10+ lineups.
- As of now, I don't have K.H. Lee in any lineups, as he just didn't fit my builds. I'll see when I finalize (very low owned), but the only 6k golfer I have is Roberto Castro, as I do like him and I needed someone in that price range. Straight up, I still take Lee over Castro; but, I want to be as transparent as possible and since Lee was a favorite play and I'm not using him right now, I wanted to get that out there.
- As I mentioned on the podcast, Aaron Baddeley has good course history. He wasn't on the initial list of players in the field so he didn't make the tournamet history file. Here are his most recent finishes at this event, starting in 2018: 16, 5, 29, 20, 67. He is getting some attention so you won't get him low owned. But, a good history here and coming off a nice week last week in Punta Cana; he does make sense.
If I come across anything else, I'll post again later tonight. The Masters article is up, so give that a look and start your research by looking at the tournament histories. Podcast will be up Monday night next week for that. But before that, good luck this week at the Valero Texas Open!
Beginning Thoughts
The last chance for most players to make it to Augusta is here at the Valero Texas Open. The winner, if no already in the field, will get the last invite to The Masters. This course plays tough, as we usually see an over par score as the cut line. Last year's -17 by Andrew Landry to win is the outlier, as the winning score is usually around -12. With this being the start of the Texas Swing (though delayed a few weeks after this one), one thing to remember: it tends to be windy in Texas. You will hear narratives of players from Australia playing well in Texas, and there is some truth to that. Don't let it be a deciding factor, but maybe let it be something to look at with Aussie players or players from Texas. Finally, there will be some talk about withdraw risk for those who are going to Augusta, regardless of the result this week. While it certainly could happen, I personally believe it gets talked up way too much. Matt Kuchar is very unlikely to withdraw if he shoots a 74 on Thursday, and is on the cutline going into Friday. So keep an eye on those players, as they may be a little lower owned for that fear of withdrawal.
