Podcast Link (Also available on Google, Spotify, Anchor, and many other Podcast Platforms)
Tournament History File (Quail Hollow Only)
Favorite Plays by Tier (Posted After Podcast
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
After a couple of windy weeks, looks like weather will be calm this week in Charlotte. According to the National Weather Service, winds below 10 mph each of the first two days with slight chances of rain on Friday. Nothing jumping out as far as any wave having an advantage.
Ownership
With so many good plays 8,000 and above, it really has spread out some ownership in those tiers, making most of them in the 15-20% range (some closer to 11-12 than 15, but you get the idea). This also means that outside of about five or six golfers, no one below 7,900 is really approaching double-digit ownership. Keith Mitchell is the one player who could see 15% in the 7k and 6k tiers. Looking at both FanShare Sports and Fantasy National, here are the projected highest owned golfers (in no particular order):
Rory McIlroy (could approach 25 or 30 percent), Tony Finau, Luke List, Jason Kokrak, Byeong Hun-An, Gary Woodland, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, and Rickie Fowler.
The only one that surprises me slightly is Phil. He hasn't been in great form since his win at Pebble Beach, but his remarkable history at Quail Hollow, along with a good history at Torrey Pines and Riviera (a few mentioned this as another comparable course) has him garnering some attention. I am not using him in DraftKings, but he's one of my two picks in One and Done in the league James and I are in (Byeong Hun-An is the other). In my main One and Done, I'm using Hideki Matsuyama, who I haven't used yet, but used in the Pick Two league. It's that time of year where my One and Dones won't always matchup.
As far as who I am playing from this list of high ownership players: List, An, Woodland, and Rose. My reason for not playing Kokrak other than ownership, is that he has gained 5+ strokes Putting in each of his last three events. While he is still really good Tee-to-Green in 2019, if that putting regresses a little bit, I don't think he pays off his salary. He's still a good play if you are using him: I'm just taking a stand. Finau is a fade for me due to recent form and ownership concerns. Luke List continues to rate out well and his 8k price fit into my lineups quite nicely. He was 9th here last year and even though he's getting some attention in ownership, this feels like a good spot for him.
Other Thoughts
- If you listened to the podcast, we ended up talking a lot more on Tom Lovelady at 6,000 than we ever thought we would. I am using him in one of my three lineups as a pure distance punt play. It allowed me to get Rose/Matsuyama in a lineup, and fill in nicely around.
- The guy that I am using more heavily than the field this week; Henrik Stenson. He falls in that upper 8k tier where most of the value is just below in the mid 8k tier. He has been showing signs recently of his game coming back to form. I am also using him as a general strategy that I'm trying to use in all DFS contests: Who is the better player? Stenson is better than Kokrak, Im, Glover, Howell, and An in that range, long-term. Throw in an ownership discount and increased price and I found myself a nice contrarian play this week.
A reminder that the podcast for the Byron Nelson will be out Sunday Night this week. We won't have pricing, but we'll discuss the players in the field and take some early guesses on what their price may be. Good luck this week!
Initial Thoughts
After a week off of fantasy golf, I have one thought about Quail Hollow this week: this is a tough course. There were some renevations done prior to the 2017 PGA Championship, and they have kept those changes, as this now plays as a Par 71 at over 7,500 yards. +4 was the cut a year ago, with only three golfers getting to double digits under par (Jason Day winning at -12). Here are the ranks of the past two years since the renovations:
2018: 5th toughest of 51 courses, played +1.132 strokes over par for the week
2017 (PGA Championship): Toughest course of 50 courses, played +2.468 strokes over par for the week.
The narrative this week should be to find guys who excel at driving distance. The rough is of average length, so it's not necessarily penal. Putting came up as a stat that should be looked at, as well as most of the approach shots coming from 200+ yards. I would expect Rory McIlroy, who is a long hitter and former champion with great course history, to be among the chalkies golfers. I write this before pricing, but unless he is 12,000 or higher, and I don't think he will be, he will be popular. On first look, I don't see a lot of depth to this field. There are some top golfers here, but the middle tier and lower tier look a little thin to me. I'll see what gems I can find and what mispricings, if any, show up for us to take advantage of.
Monday Addition: I found myself thinking that maybe there was a correlation between here and Torrey Pines, as I know that is a longer course that plays difficult. When I started looking at some players who play well at one of the courses, I found that quite a few of them have decent track records at the other course. So, if you want to see a course history for Torrey Pines, Click Here. I didn't match this field exactly but eliminated enough golfers that I know aren't play to hopefully help. Just because they are on the Farmers' Field does not mean they are playing at Wells Fargo this week.
