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No Tournament History File this week
3M Open
TPC Twin Cities: Blaine, MN Par 71: 7,468 Yards
Roster Lock: 6:50 am CST (7:50 EST, 5:50 MST, 4:50 PST)
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
Maybe some spotty rain during the first two rounds, but it doens't look like it will accumulate. Winds are just about nonexistent, according to the National Weather Service, and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Looks like great weather to start the tournament and no tee time wave advantages to be seen.
Ownership
We are seeing similar numbers on Fantasy National and FanShare Sports when it comes to ownership. The 10k+ players are all in the Top 7 of projected ownership. Bryson and Hideki are the clear top two, with Bryson potentially coming close to 25 or 30%. 25% would probably be the ceiling on Hideki. As for the other three, expect somewhere around 20% or less. It would go Kopeka, Day, and Reed from most to least popular. With most looking to play at least one 10k+ player, starting in the 9k or 8k range looks quite contrarian (I personally don't like those builds this week, but have no issues with it from a game theory perspective).
As far as everyone else, here are the other names that are showing up in ownership modules. Outside of the first two names listed, the rest will be in the 15% or lower range. The first two would be in the 15-20% range: Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, Kevin Streelman, Rory Sabatini, Sepp Straka, and Tony Finau. Finau is not in this range if strictly looking at Fantasy National.
I have been trying not to dramatically change my single lineup each week based on ownership. However, seeing DeChambeau in the mid to high 20s is just too high for my liking. While he is still trending upwards with his game and doesn't mind going low to win a tournament, I'm just going to take a chance that he doesn't do significantly better than others around him in pricing. Basically, this is a game theory fade for me.
Other Notes
- When I got off of Bryson, I dropped down to the low 9k range: My decision came down to Viktor Hovland vs Sungjae Im. Hovland is about 3-4% higher owned and $100 higher. Hovland is the better short-term play, but Im a little better long-term. When I looked at my stat models across both ranges, Hovland ended up a little higher than Im for me. So if you like playing the "last guy Skeeter left out of his lineups" angle, which has produced in the past, play Im.
- My second decision was what 6k player I would play. I mentioned Joey Garber on the podcast, but he ended up 5th for me. My decision came down to Troy Merritt, Hank Lebioda, Roger Sloan, and Josh Teater. If I was playing 20 lineups, I would have each of them in 1-2 lineups. This is especially true for Sloan, who will be 1% owned. However, I ended up on Lebioda (who was my last guy out last week). He's a guy I would probably play in cash games, as he does nothing spectacular in the stats, but is solid in above average or average in every category, while being Top 35 in my model from any range between 8 and 100 rounds.
- When pricing came out, there were a lot of intriguing names in the 7600-7900 range. They are all floating around 10% ownership. However, I don't think I would have guessed that the two highest owned players in this range would have been Cameron Tringale and Collin Morikawa. I do like those two players, but think I would go back to Charley Hoffman (you're welcome James) or Jason Dufner
- Other course notes that I have heard throughout the industry: Fairways are 40 yards wide, so while the water will come into play, those who have control of their drives should not have many problems. It looks like the projected winning score will be somewhere around -20 so look for scorers this week.
Happy 4th of July to everyone and good luck with your lineups this week.
OPENING THOUGHTS
This is the second straight week where the Tour goes to a new destination as it returns to Minnesota for the 3M Open. This course has held events on the Champions Tour recently until this change this year. Winnings scores were around -20, so this looks like it could be another low scoring week. It is an Arnold Palmer designed course and when I looked it up on Google Maps, I saw a lot of ponds throughout the course. It gave me a Bay Hill vibe (host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational) so as I look more into it, if I do think it's a strong enough correlation, I may look to see how golfers playing this week, have played there.
Without the tournament history file to look at, I will rely on current form and stats. With the stats, I want players who will make a lot of birdies, but due to the water, am including Bogey Avoidance. Tee-to-Green game will be important as usual. All three Par 5s fall between 590 and 600 yards, with most of the Par 4s falling between 400-502 yards. Those are areas I will look at too. Finally, just like last week, without a history here and questions on how the course will play, I will not invest as much as I have in other weeks. Too many unknowns for me to want to dive in too deeply this week.
