Favorite Plays by Tier
World Golf Championship- FedEx St. Jude
TPC Southwind: Germantown, TN Par 70: 7,237 Yards
Course Ranks (Previously known as FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
- 2018: 11th Toughest (out of 51), played 0.52 strokes OVER PAR on average
- 2017: 15th Toughest (out of 52), played 0.63 strokes OVER PAR on average
- 2016: 10th Toughest (out of 50), played 0.93 strokes OVER PAR on average
- 2015: 9th Toughest (out of 52), played 0.93 strokes OVER PAR on average
Roster Lock: 12:20 pm EST (11:20 am CST, 10:20 MST, 9:20 PST)
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
Temperatures in the mid-80s to low 80s all week, no chance at rain. For the first two days, everyone is teeing off within a two hour window off of 1 and 10. So no weather plays to be had this week.
Ownership
Some slight disagreements among Fantasy National and FanShare Sports on the expected ownership among some of the top owned golfers this week. Justin Thomas is a runaway on Fanshare (25-30%), but is just below 20% on Fantasy National. DJ is four points higher on FanShare than Fantasy National. Patrick Cantlay is five points higher on Fantasy National. So, as you may expect with a short field, there are some minor differences of opinion. So, taking a look at the sites, here are players that are exceeding or get close to 20% ownership (in no particular order): Cantlay, DJ, Thomas, Horschel, McIlroy, Simpson, Matsuyama, Casey, and Reavie.
We usually don't have to worry about too many double digit owned plays in the 6k range, but this week; we see a few. Those golfers include: Conners, Bradley, Lashley, Homa, and Li. I think Lashley and Li are closer to 10%, where as the other three are around 15% and wouldn't be shocked to see Bradley or Conners get to 20%.
A good reminder for everyone this week in a short field: Ownership does play a role, but don't deviate from a play simply due to it. I got into this disucssion with a friend earlier today, as he really likes Hideki and JT. Just because they are both highly owned, it does not mean you need to avoid them. If you think they will finish Top 5 or better, then play them. If you think it's a T13, then maybe you consider fading. The other bit of advice is to leave salary on the table. As of this writing, I think I have a potentially chalky type of lineup (one spot TBD), but have 400 in salary left over. Most people leave 200 or less, so if you can leave a few dollars, you give yourself a chance to be unique. Or, if you're playing multiple lineups, and you like a lot of chalky plays, go overweight on them (EX: If Thomas ends up at 25% ownership, play 40-50% or more on him). These are ways give yourself a chance to be unique. And as always, you don't have to be unique in every spot: one low owned play or salary left on the table helps.
Other Thoughts
- Shane Lowry has withdrawn, so do not play him.
- Gary Woodland and his wife are expecting a child any day. He says he will leave to be with his wife if she goes into labor. Congrats to the Woodland family, and what a memorable summer it has been for the Woodland family. From a pure DFS perspective, it simply increases his risk and should not be someone you play in a single lineup. I am not playing him due to this.
- My biggest debate currently is Matthew Wolff vs Billy Horschel. Horschel is coming in with good form and outstanding course history. Wolff has the most upside long-term, but I do worry about how he handles this elite field. So, sounds like Horschel is the easy play for me. If I look at Fantasy National for ownership, absolutely: they are less than 1 percentage point apart. However, FanShare has different numbers: 20% for Horschel, 6% for Wolff. As I mentioned earlier, I do have some chalkier types of plays in the other spots. This may be a last minute call on my behalf as far as what I do.
- In the 6k range, I have made a change in my favorite play. While I don't mind C.T. Pan and think he should exceed his value, I think I like the upside of the player who leads the Euro Tour in birdies per round: Haotong Li. The concern with Li is that his approach game isn't always the best: but, in a no-cut event, I do like his scoring ability. He has also won some nice Euro Tour events in the past, in some deep fields. It's an upside play for me, as I feel Li's upside is higher than Pan.
- I really don't like getting onto players late in the week, who will be higher owned. However, sometimes there's a reason for it, and I found it this week: Webb Simpson. He's just too cheap for me for someone who has seven straight Top 30s, and who has finished third here before. 8th in DK Points, 12th in Birdies or Better, and 15th in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds is a nice combination for what I'm looking at this week.
That's enough from me. If you have other thoughts or questions, contact me or James on Twitter. Good luck with your lineups this week!
Opening Thoughts
Another new event in July, but has a familar feel to it, the WGC: FedEx St. Jude. This was formerly known as the FedEx St. Jude Invitational, that was played the week before the U.S. Open. Now, we see a smaller field here after The Open with only 64 players in the field officially as I write this (Shane Lowry may not play coming off of the win at The Open). This is a no-cut event so assuming there are no withdrawals or disqualifications, every one gets four rounds. This means you may need to leave salary on the table or find ways to avoid popular combos (Dustin Johnson and Billy Horschel may be a popular duo due to some very good course history).
This feels like it could be a tough event to play out. It has played as a tough course the past four years, as you see above, and the motivations of some players could be hard to figure out. There could be some letdown after a major last week. Looking at stats, I am focusing on Ball Striking, as golfers have to hit fairways and greens. Scrambling didn't come up as important when I took a look, so that's why I'm focusing more on the ball striking. 11 of the 12 Par 4's fall in the 400-500 yard range, with 7 being from 450-500 yards. That is what I'm looking at as well, along with how golfers do in proximity from 150-175 yards.I don't even mind looking at the scoring stats of birdies or better and bogey avoidance. Players can make birdies, but there are some big numbers lurking out there as well.
