Favorite Plays by Tier
Wyndham Championship (Final Regular Season Event)
Sedgefield CC, Greensboro NC Par 70: 7,127 Yards
Course Difficulty
- 2018: Ranked 40th out of 51 courses, playing 1.31 strokes UNDER Par on Average
- 2017: Ranked 37th out of 50 courses, playing 1.19 strokes UNDER Par on Average
- 2016: Ranked 37th out of 50 courses, playing 1.03 strokes UNDER Par on Average
- 2015: Ranked 40th out of 52 courses, playing 1.14 strokes UNDER Par on Average
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
Rain. That looks to be the theme of the first two days, with the National Weather Service having rain chances for the entirety of the first two days, with the heaviest of the rains coming Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s, and wind doesn't look like it will be an issue. There may be some delays, but that would be hard to figure out how this will play out based on the forecasts. I would not factor weather into lineup making but as a usual statement I make, if you are playing multiple lineups, stack tee time waves in a couple of them. There is a chance it proves to be significant this week, if the weather comes.
Ownership
For those who listened to the podcast, a couple of notes that came from FanShare Sports. First, we weren't the only ones to mention Charlie Danielson. Secondly however, we (and I really mean James) was the only one to mention Boo Weekley.
Now for the part you care about the most; who has a chance of being 20% owned. A few golfers pop up on the list, but there is some general disagreement again this week between Fantasy National and FanShare Sports. (Side Note: both do a really good job projecting ownership. Their algorithms are solid, and I couldn't begin to imagine how hard this is when they likely don't even have half of the information. The gaps are expected and is why I look at both to gauge a general feel). Those who are trending towards the top, in no particular order, are as follows: Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Joaquin Niemann, and Scott Piercy. Simpson and Reed are the only two consensus in the Top 5 on each site. So it looks like ownership may end up all over the place this week. Of course, there is always one or two players who jump up and are higher owned that the industry expected. So, to me, it's a rare week where I say, don't base any plays off of ownership.
Other Thoughts
- I am changing my Favorite Play in the 6k Tier to Shawn Stefani. I like his form and birdie making ability more than Ryan Armour right now. Armour is slightly higher owned (due to back to back Top 10s at the Wyndham), but as I mentioned earlier, ownership is not something to greatly worry about at this time, and it's only 2-3 percentage points difference between the two.
- I tend to think we may see more balanced builds this week than stars and scrubs. The low 7k range and 6k range have decent options; however, no one really stands out as a great play. I even think there are some golfers in the mid to low 6k range (Cink, Danielson, Svensson) that are not bad punt plays, leading to more lineup diversity. I'm not playing any of those three, but gave them some serious thought. I do wonder how many people will play the Morikawa/Wolff/Hovland build (maybe more casual players) and then punt with one of the low 6k players. It's a lineup that you wouldn't hate.
That's it for the notes; not too many this week. If you play fantasy football, go to insiderfootball.com and take a look at the draft advisory software. Also, James and I talked about fantasy football for nearly 30 minutes on Monday's podcast. Click the link at the top of the article to find the podcast on your favorite listening app and listen to it. There are time stamps so you know where to go to find it. Good luck this week and we'll be back next week for the Playoffs!
Opening Thoughts
A few storylines to pay attention to this week, but the biggest one you will hear is 125. That's the cutoff for the FedEx Cup Playoffs and full status on tour next season. To see them for yourselves, click here. I would think everyone from #121 and up are safe and in the Playoffs. Even Pat Perez at #122 is very likely to make it if he doesn't make the cut. Everyone else, it's going to be a battle into Sunday. To a lesser extent, the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 could be a factor for someone like Paul Casey, who is 8th right now, or for Webb Simpson and Chez Reavie, who are just outside the Top 10. It's bonus money so it's a motivation; just maybe not as much as the race for 125.
As you see with the Difficulty Ranks, Sedgefield does play as one of the easier courses, despite being a Par 70. Cut line will most likely be somewhere between Even to -2. Ball striking is key, along with the scoring stats. Driving accuracy has popped up as something past winners and Top 10 players have excelled in (look at Stenson and Snedeker, the past two champions as further proof). A majority of the 12 Par 4's fall between 400-450 yards, with the heaviest distrubution of shots between 150-175 yards. I will be looking at those along with the scoring and ball striking stats. I am going to take a slight look at putting as well, as that does appear as something important here, and in many Donald Ross designed courses. Finally, stats will be important, but may be a bit skewed. The alternate field events are not showing up in my stat models, and may be forgotten in form guides. Looking at the DraftKings game logs should help with form, as the alternate field events should be included in those.
