Favorite Plays by Tier
BMW Championship (Playoff Event #2)
Medinah CC: Medinah, IL Par 72: 7,613 Yards
2006 PGA Championship Stats at Medinah
- Played 0.636 strokes OVER Par, 13th Toughest
- 21 Eagles, 1,491 Birdies, 1,380 Bogeys, 181 Double Bogeys, 24 Others
- Easiest Holes: #5, 7, 10, and 3. (5, 7, and 10 are Par 5')
- Toughest Holes: #16, 13, 6, and 17 (13 and 17 are Par 3s)
Roster Lock: 9:15 am CST (10:15 EST, 8:15 MST, 7:15 PST)
Before getting into weather, it is worth noting that everoyne will be teeing off within a four-hour window on the first two days off of #1. So, it would make weather waves a little more difficult to be had.
The National Weather Service is basically calling for a chance of rain Friday-Sunday. It is the midwest so the chance of a pop-up thunderstorm is always lurking. However, as I mentioned on the podcast, it has been pretty dry here in Illinois the past six weeks or so, so any rain that the course receives should dry up quickly. Beyond the rain, temperatures will be pleasant around 80 degrees both days. The wind does pick up a little bit on Friday afternoon, with gusts up to 15 mph. It's nothing to alter my player selection, though I suppose you could see a slight advantage for those teeing off in the first few groups on Friday morning.
In a field of 69 players, ownership does take a little more importance in tournaments this week, especially with the big prize pools and contests being offered on DraftKings. Justin Thomas looks to be the highest owned, as his game is trending up and he's sitting at a nice price of 10,000. He could be in the 20-25% ownership range. There's a few other names that could approach 20 percent ownership. Looking at Fantasy National and FanShare Sports, here are the players that could hit that mark, in no particular order: Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Paul Casey, Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau, and Jason Kokrak.
In a week like this, you're probably going to end up on two or three of these higher owned players. And that's fine: what you just need to do is make yourself unique by finding a player that you're on that will be low owned, or by leaving $200 or more of salary on the table.
- I try to have my lineup set by the time I do this update: I don't this week. I'm trying to balance three things right now: ownership, recent form, and how have these players done on longer courses, historically. For me, players that are sticking out a little bit more from the long course perspective that don't necessarily show up in recent form include Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, and Ryan Moore. I could throw Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama into that mix, but I doubt I end up on them. The other name that I'm considering after saying I probably wouldn't play him due to ownership back on the Monday podcast is Rory McIlroy. He rates out #1 in my stat model when I look at 7400+ yard courses, whether it's 12 rounds or 100 rounds. I don't know if I get to him or not over Rahm (who doesn't rate out elite on long courses), but is in my thought process.
- I have mentioned for the past couple of weeks that I'm not factoring in FedEx Cup Standings when making decisions. That still is mainly true. However, there is one player that I may not play because of this: Joaquin Niemann. He is #70, the last guy to qualify for the BMW Championship. This means he needs a really high finish this week to have any chance at East Lake. I would assume his approach is to play quite aggressively, as a T20 will be the same as 69th this week, in regards to FedEx Cup standings. If this is the case, it can go one of two ways: he's either lights out in DraftKings scoring, as he's making a lot of birdies (maybe contending, or maybe matching every birdie with a bogey) or he starts out so poorly that he just doesn't care come the weekend and starts working on his game more than trying to move up the leaderboard. Factor in higher ownership, and this is a recipe for me to fade him. I think he's a little bit riskier than people are thinking and there are too many questions for me to want to play him in my single lineup. However, I do not fault you or anyone else for playing him, as he may end up as one of the best DK point per dollar plays this week.
- There has been no withdrawals other than Kevin Na early on Monday. It sounds like Tiger Woods will play, but remains risky due to his injury last week. It also looks like Rafa Cabrera-Bello will play after he and his wife welcomed a new baby to the family last week. If you are planning on using Rafa, I would do one final check online and on Twitter before roster lock, to make sure something hasn't changed.
- In the big One and Done that I'm in, I need to make a splash move this week to have any chance at cashing. I could go with Xander Schauffele, who I may end up using in DraftKings. However, if I have nothing to lose, maybe it's time for me to take a chance on a player that I'm always concerned with withdrawing and who has been playing pretty well this year: Louis Oosthuizen. Great tournament play if you can stomach the risk, as his irons have been great.
That is it for me this week. Click on the link at the top of the page to have a chance at a free NFL subscription here on My Fantasy Fix this season. James and I will be back on Monday night to preview the 30-man Tour Championship field. Until then, good luck at the BMW this week.
The second of three playoff events heads to the Chicago area at Medinah CC. There isn't a lot of recent history here, as the last time an event was played here was the 2012 Ryder Cup. If you want to go back further, the 1999 and 2006 PGA Championship was held here; both won by Tiger Woods. It will play long at 7,600 yards and some long par 3's with water in front of them to make it challenging. It has continued to be a dry July and August here in Illinois, so the course could play a little shorter with shots rolling out. However, we will have to wait and see how it's playing early in the week.
There is no cut with only 70 players playing this week and no alternates. So if someone withdraws, they will not be replaced in the field. At the end of the event, the Top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta. Like last week, I'm really not factoring that in for the regular slate. I may factor it in come the weekend slate. I will add more to this part later on Monday.