(Image from clutchpoints.com)
We still haven't had a huge scoring output game in a showdown slate yet. As you can see the three games in the last week were all over the place. I tend to think the two primetime games this weekend will be similar to the Monday and Thursday night games from this past week. In game injuries certainly caused some very cheap players (Hollins and Johnson) to be part of these final showdown winning lineups. And this past Thursday night, those Adam Humphries (Why couldn't it have been Dion Lewis?! I had Lewis instead of Humphries and Chark as my Captain as the only differences from the winning lineup) garbage time receptions helped win. The Monday Night Game analysis will be posted Sunday Night.
Monday Night Football: Chicago @ Washington
- I suspect a 4-2 or 5-1 stack in favor of the Bears will be the popular build here, and is the way I'm looking to go right now. So going contrarian with a Redskins heavy build or 3-3 even split is way to go if you think it will be a close game or if you think Washington will score multiple touchdowns.
- While favored, the Bears are going to be the tough lineup combination to figure out. Looking at the research tab in the premium package, here are the Top 3 WRs by % of snaps for the first two weeks: Allen Robinson (96/90), Taylor Gabriel (92/87), and Anthony Miller (22/52). I think looking at Gabriel (4,400) or Miller (3,600) would be a decent value play. I would think Gabriel will be more popular due to that steady snap share, but Miller has similar potential. Robinson (9,800) was limited by Chris Harris last week, and should have an easier week. I think you will want at least one of these receivers, as the Washington is Bottom 5 through two weeks against WR1 and WR2.
- The Bears RB situation has not been any clearer. Tarik Cohen (6,800) saw 70% of the snaps in week one, but only 38% in week two. David Montgomery (9,400) went from least amount of snaps (38%) in week one to most amount of RB snaps (44%) in week two. Mike Davis (1,800) went from 56% to 28%. I think Montgomery will be the main RB here. Davis is intriguing at 1,800, and Cohen does have passing upside, but 6,800 feels a little pricy here for me. I would rank them Mongomery/Davis/Cohen in that order.
- Through two weeks, the Bears have been average against the pass and pass catching RBs. Chris Thompson (7,400) has led the team in snaps for RBs the first two weeks, but went from 64% of snaps in Week One to 45% in Week Two. It's a little pricy for my liking, and would be more willing to take a flyer on Wendell Smallwood (1,200) who was on the field for 26% of snaps in Week Two. He's probably a better play in a build where the Bears lead early.
- I was suprised to see that Terry McLaurin (8,600) is leading all Washington receivers in targets and snaps. Second is Trey Quinn (3,800) and third is Paul Richardson (5,000). Richardson did outsnap Quinn a week ago, but Quinn has been more productive. I think I would rather take a chance on Quinn or Richardson than McLaurin at his price.
- Mitchell Trubisky (10,400) is the wild card here. We've seen him perform well in games against weaker teams in 2018. Yet, he hasn't shown anything near that slate-breaking upside yet in 2019. I think he's quite intriguing at the Captain spot, as he is the most expensive player on this showdown slate, and I'm not sure anyone will want to put him at captain.
- The Bears Defense (6,200) was in the winning lineup four times in 2018. So far, they don't look like they've regressed that much. It's the most expensive defensive price I can remember but I think they are probably worth it.However, if you are looking for a reason not to take them: Case Keenum has not thrown a pick yet in two games and Washington has only allowed two sacks.
Bears Players I would Consider: Trubisky, Robinson, Miller/Gabriel, Montgomery, Bears Defense, Davis, Pinero (If active, he is officially Questionable)
Redskins Players I would Consider: Quinn, Richardson, Smallwood, Thompson, Redskins Defense
Sunday Night Football: L.A. Rams @ Cleveland
- Jared Goff will most likely not be a part of my roster this week. He showed some extreme home/road splits in 2018, throwing for 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in the 8 regular season road games. This year, he had one of each in the game in Carolina, and only threw for one TD last week vs the Saints. The Browns are 8th in DVOA vs the pass so far through two games (granted, not facing top QBs), but this seems a little too high of a price at 10,600 for me.
- My favorite value play of this game is probably Gerald Everett (2,400). Cleveland was torched by Delanie Walker in Week One and Tyler Higbee has been ruled out for the Rams. This should leave Everett as the lone TE for the Rams, and he did see 4 targets a week ago. While I may not like Goff for his production, I don't mind some of the receiving options and Everett is the value for me in this matchup.
- Through two weeks, Todd Gurley (9,600) is outsnapping Malcolm Brown (4,200) around 2:1. We saw Le'Veon Bell catch a lot of passes last week against the Browns team, so I think either RB is viable here. I think Gurley has the better upside, but Brown is better bet to return 3x value and be the better point per dollar play.
- We still aren't seeing Nick Chubb (9,800) get the number of snaps that we want. He was at 70% in Week One and 60% last week. He's averaging around 15-16 carries and four targets so far this season. The Rams were vulnerable a year ago against the run, and gave up major production to McCaffrey in Week One, while holding Kamara to a bad week in Week 2. I think Chubb if fine to play, but I do worry about Johnson or Hillard seeing enough snaps to prevent Chubb from hitting a big ceiling. As far as Johnson or Hillard, both are fine tournament plays, as they both come in under 1k. Probably better to be used in MME approaches.
- The 5 main receivers in this game (Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry for Cleveland, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp for L.A.) have seen over 90% of the snaps in the first two weeks. Both teams are Top 10 in DVOA vs the Pass through two weeks. It's a tough matchup for both, but in a game where we have a lot of question marks on the running game for both teams, the receivers are viable.
- With this much uncertainty about both teams and a middling over/under of 47.5, I don't mind either defense or kicker.
Rams I will Consider Using: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Malcolm Brown (I like the price discount over Gurley)
Browns I will Consider Using: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry.