Week 7 Primetime and Week 8 Thursday Winning Lineup Information
We continue to see much lower scoring winning lineups in 2019 than we did in 2018. Maybe that changes in the second half of the season, but I'm not sure and there's two reasons for this in my opinion: First, scoring in the league is down, possibly due to more penalties being called or more injuries, or teams on these prime time games not being as good as we've seen. However, I also think my other reason is probably the biggest one: Pricing has gotten tougher. It is more efficient now that DraftKings has a better idea of what to price defense, kickers, and complementary pieces at. That doesn't mean there aren't pricing mistakes that still occur; it's just not as often as last year.
Monday Night: Miami @ Pittsburgh
MONDAY UPDATE: Kallen Ballage will start for Miami at RB. He is an absolute must play at 1,600.
I'm going to keep this short as I have to fill in on the InsiderFootball side of Fantistics and write the Sunday report. I will try to update this on Monday right before the game, if my thoughts have changed.
- For Miami, I'm going to assume Mark Walton (6,000) will be quite popular as Kenyan Drake will not play in this game. Walton did see 14 carries last week and played 52% of the snaps for Miami, and the Steelers are league average against the rush. If you need a cheap Dolphin, I don't think Kallen Ballage (1,600) is the worst play as he may have the best chance at goal line carries. At receiver, I would rather go Preston Williams (6,200) over DeVante Parker (7,200) as I think Williams is the more consistent option. Ryan Fitzpatrick (8,400) is not a bad value play at QB, as the Steelers defense hasn't been all that great this year. I don't think you have to force him into your lineups, but no issues if you end up with him.
- For Pittsburgh, everyone is in play. Miami is 32nd in DVOA agaisnt both the pass and rush. Coming off the bye week, they are all healthy as well, so don't overlook Mason Rudolph (10,800), Jaylen Samuels (4,400) or James Washington (3,800). The only play I think that would be tough to pull off is James Conner (13,400/20,100) at Captain, as this is the highest price I've seen on someone in Showdown (at least I don't remember anyone being that high priced before). This is where you need to make sure your team tells a narrative:
- If you think the Steelers do nothing but run the ball, play Conner/Samuels, Steelers D, Rudolph, as your corps.
- If you think this is a confidence booster for Rudolph, play JuJu, Washington, and Vance with as your corps. Maybe avoid the Steelers Defense in this narrative and hope they don't score a defensive TD and Miami is able to get a couple of TDs.
Sunday Night: Green Bay @ Kansas City
- We all wanted Rodgers vs Mahomes. We get half, but Matt Moore (8,000) will start in place of Mahomes. Even though Moore didn't do much in relief, he's still a solid backup QB being inserted into a good offense. 8,000 is a very good price on a starting QB, and if we can get to 20 points, he hits and exceeds value.
- I'm not sure I will be attacking the Chiefs running backs here. LeSean McCoy (6,600) is seeing the most usage, but is still in a timeshare with Damien Williams (4,000) and Darryl Williams (1,800) are also seeing a decent number of snaps. McCoy is the preffered option here, as Green Bay does allow 4.88 yards a carry, and maybe he starts seeing more snaps at the expense of Damien. McCoy is fine to insert in at the price: I just worry that he doesn't have the 17-20 point upside I want at this price to be in a winning lineup.
- The key to winning this game is getting the receiving options right for both teams. For Kansas City, the first question is always whether to play Tyreek Hill (10,000) at his price. He carries massive upside, but I think it may be limited without Mahomes. If he does go off for 2 touchdowns or 100 yards and a TD, he's a must have. I'm not going to go there. When trying to figure out the rest of the wide receivers for the Chiefs, Sammy Watkins (5,800) is back. He can be inconsistent as well, but at this price, I think he has the best upside for the price among the Chiefs WRs. If I had to take a flyer on one of the others, it would be DeMarcus Robinson (4,200) as he was seeing the most snaps without Watkins on the field. However, I think the main play here is Travis Kelce (8,800) who did see 8 targets last week and faces a Packers defense that got beat up by Darren Waller (7/126/2) a week ago. A full compliment of receiving options should open things up for Kelce, who should be the safety blanket for Moore.
- For Green Bay, it was interesting to see the snap counts for the past couple of weeks. The one who has seen the most snaps is Jake Kumerow (2,400), though the targets haven't been there. He doesn't need much to hit value there though, so I'm fine with him as a punt play. However, if you can get up to Allen Lazard (4,600), he does feel safer. He led the team in snaps last week and seems like he has a rapport with Rodgers. As far as MVS (7,600) and Geronimo Allison (4,800), they should return to a normal amount of snaps now that they are both healthy and don't carry an injury designation. Allison has been seeing more targets of the two, while MVS is the bigger play threat. In a game where I'm not sure how the Packers are going to distribute the passes, I think I would rather pay up for the Chiefs receiving options and take chances on Allison/Lazard/Kumerow than on MVS. Finally, KC is Top 10 in DVOA vs the TE, so I will most likely not be going to Jimmy Graham (6,200). And yes, Aaron Rodgers (12,000) is in play, though I don't think you have to go there with such a high price if you don't want to. Price considered, I think I would take the 4,000 discount on Moore, but playing both is feasible.
- It looks like the GB running back situation is still about a 60/40 split in favor of Aaron Jones (9,200) over Jamaal Williams (6,400). Williams is more TD dependent right know, while Jones is still being priced up due to that massive game against Dallas a couple of weeks ago. Both are playable as the Chiefs allow 4.99 yards a carry, third worst in the NFL. If you want to avoid the Packers passing game, I don't mind using both players in this spot. If choosing one, I may lean Williams as he has a better Yards per Carry (4.6 to 4.0) than Jones.
- If going the kicker/defense route, I'll take Harrison Butker (3,400) as he has put up at least 7 points in all but one game this season (and remember, Captain Matt Prater was against Green Bay). And while the Green Bay Defense (4,400) has slowed down in production recently, they are facing a backup QB so there is always some merit going that route.
Packers I will Consider: Rodgers, Jones/Williams, Lazard, Kumerow, Allison, Packers Defense
Chiefs I will Consider: Kelce, Moore, Watkins, Hill, McCoy, Butker, Robinson