Did you see the stats from the winning lineup on Thursday Night? 970-way tie for 1st in the big $10 game. Everyone still got a cool $1k+, but that by far is the most number of 1st place winners in the brief history of showdown slates.
Week 4 Showdown Slate Recap
Monday Night: Cleveland @ San Francisco
- Neither team really has a standout matchup that we can exploit. For Cleveland, we know who will be involved: Odell Beckham Jr. (10,400), Nick Chubb (10,200), and Jarvis Landry (7,200). The one weakness in positional DVOA vs SF has been the WR2, so Landry at his price fits nicely there. Though he is Questionable, Rashard Higgins (2,400) is expected to start, and would be a nice value option. I think Chubb may be popular, especially after his huge game in Baltimore last week. But, he's the surest option to get touches. The 49ers are 6th against the run, so that is a concern, but may be more of a volume play.
- The 49ers are the really tough team to figure out, on a weekly basis. They are rotating receivers in and out every play, so guessing who will be the most productive each week is that: a guess. The one WR that stands out is Dante Pettis (2,400), as he is significantly cheaper than the others. He only trailed Marquise Goodwin (6,400) and Deebo Samuel (6,600) for snaps in their last game. Pettis is my play here due to the extreme price discount. Richie James (1,000) and Kendrick Bourne (200) are multi-entry type of plays. Maybe the best option should just be George Kittle (9,000) though he Cleveland has a Top-10 positional DVOA vs the TE.
- Running Back is not any easier, as Tevin Coleman (5,600) will return, complicating this backfield even more. Matt Breida (6,800) will also most likely be the other RB that gets significant run. I prefer Breida to Coleman, but not sure I will go there.
- For the special teams plays, I don't mind the 49ers Defense (4,600) as they have at least two sacks in all three games, and have forced multiple turnovers in two of their three games. Robbie Gould (3,800) is a fine play as a last player in, with games of 6, 11, and 12 this season. The Browns Defense (4,000) has forced three turnovers in their past two games, and have 4 sacks in three of the four games this season. Austin Seibert (3,600) has 11 and 13 points in their two road games.
Browns Players I will Consider: Landry, Chubb, Mayfield, Beckham, Seibert, Browns Defense
49ers Players I will Consider: Pettis, Kittle, Garoppolo, Goodwin/Samuel, Gould, 49ers Defense
Sunday Night: Indianapolis @ Kansas City
- I don't think this is a time to get too cute: play Patrick Mahomes, play him at captain if you wish. He didn't have any TD's last week, and still scored 21 fantasy points. Think he's going a second week without TDs? I do like that DraftKings priced him all the way up to 12,800 (19,200 as Captain) so it at least makes you think about whether to play him at captain or not. But, he's not someone I'm avoiding.
- Indianapolis is 32nd in DVOA vs the run. This puts a returning Damien Williams (7,000) and LeSean McCoy (7,400) into play. I don't even hate playing both with Mahomes to try and get all of the Chiefs TDs. If I had to choose one, I'll take Williams at a 400 discount and higher pass catching upside.
- The KC receiving options are plentiful and interesting. Sammy Watkins appeared on the injury report on Friday and is Questionable. If he misses, this is a boost to Mecole Hardman (6,200), who should match snaps with DeMarcus Robinson (7,200). Robinson had 9 targets to Hardman's 5 targets last week, and has been seeing more snaps. Travis Kelce (10,000) is due for a big game, seeing 8-9 targets in each game with only 1 touchdown. If you really are desperate or want to go really off the board, Zach Pringle (200) was the only other Chiefs WR to see any snaps last week. If Watkins is out, that may make him the #3 WR and worth a look.
- The Colts are potentially decimated on offense. Parris Campbell is out, and Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton very likely could be out as well. This leads me to think a Chiefs onslaught is coming (5 KC players including defense is plausible for me if Mack and Hilton are both Out). Another reason: playing a night game in Arrowhead is not usually a fun experience for the visiting team.
- If Mack misses, I think you will see Nyheim Hines (6,600) get the majority of the snaps, especially if the Colts are trailing early in this game. Even if Mack plays, Hines is still my preferred RB for the Colts.
- I'm fine with any healthy Colts WR if Hilton misses or is limited. All make sense for a last player rostered scenario, and each has their strenghts. Zach Pascal (4,200) saw 7 targets last week, Chester Rogers (3,600) saw 6 targets last week, and Deon Cain (1,200) led the team in snaps, though didn't catch any of his five targets. Playing two with Jacoby Brissett (8,400) and the Mahomes/Williams/McCoy lineup would be an interesting lineup build, to try and get all the TD equity.
- I do have interest in the Chiefs Defense (4,400) due to all of the injuries for the Colts offense. I really wish DraftKings had priced the Colts Defense (2,800) much lower to at least make you think about it. No one should play them at 2,800, but at 400? I bet you would at least think about it.
Colts I am Considering: Nyheim Hines, Deon Cain (he's due for a week where he leads the team in receptions), Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers
Chiefs I am Considering: Everyone that is starting and not injured (no Watkins for me even if he is active. Yes, I am considering Damien Williams). Mahomes is a Lock for me.