Week 5 Primetime/Week 6 Thursday Night Stats
Not surprisingly, we saw the highest combined ownership percentage on Thursday Night, but that's nothing new with the Patriots against a weak team. Last year, we saw one of the highest ownership rates last year when New England beat Buffalo on a Monday Night. Unlike that game last year that had over 300+ winners, Thursday night's game had 53 winners.
Monday Night: Detroit @ Green Bay
- Before I get into individual players, this feels like a game where there may not be many sneaky plays. Distribution of touches is pretty limited for each team. So I wouldn't get too cute with lineups. There are a couple of potential value plays (mainly on GB) but playing 2+ does not seem optimal.
- For me, Detroit is very easy to figure out where the touches are going. Kerryon Johnson (8,600) has seen at least 20 carries in each of his last two games. He's also seeing a couple of targets in the pass game, and may see a couple more since Green Bay is 22nd vs pass-catching RBs and 29th against the rush. He is my favorite price per dollar play in this game. If you needed to fill out a roster with 1,000 or less, J.D. McKissic (1,000) has been getting 4-5 fantasy points a game. But, I'm not sure I want to go there as the upside looks limited.
- With Danny Amendola (4,600) Questionable, we should see most targets go towards Kenny Golladay (9,400), Marvin Jones (6,800) and T.J. Hockenson (5,400). I prefer Golladay the most here, though Hockenson has best matchup in DVOA vs Position (GB is 19th vs TE). We have seen Golladay and Jones post huge days against Green Bay in the past, so that narrative is live. However, this Packers defense is 5th against the pass. Matthew Stafford (9,600) is in play, though I worry about his availability to get to 25 points in this matchup.
- Detroit's defense has done a nice job against WRs this year, ranking in the Top 10 against every WR Position. However, they are bottom 10 against the TE and pass-catching RBs. Even coming off a huge week last week, Aaron Jones (11,400) had been seeing lot of targets in the games prior to last week, over Jamaal Williams (5,200). Even when factoring in price, I do prefer Jones over Williams. But if you can't afford Jones, I have no problem pivoting to Williams.
- The Tight Ends are an interesting situation here. Robert Tonyan is out, leaving only Jimmy Graham (7,000) and Mercedes Lewis (600) as the only tight ends. Graham has been seeing 60-70% of the snaps, with Lewis seeing about 30-45% of the snaps. Graham's targets have been a bit varied, while Lewis has seen about 2-3 targets each game. Lewis is my preferred choice here due to the savings, though by no means do you have to go here.
- Detroit has been tough against WRs, so I'm not sure I'm really wanting to go to MVS (7,800) or Geronimo Allison (6,400). Allison is my preferred option as he seems to be the higher TD option. Jake Kumerow (2,800) will be the WR3, so he's in play, though I'm not automatically inserting him into my lineups. I'm perfectly fine using Aaron Rodgers (11,600), as he is due for some positive TD regression after only having 6 touchdowns this season.
- I think both defenses and kickers can be used, as I do see this as a lower scoring game. I would slightly prefer the Packers Defense (5,000) straight up, but with prices, the Lions Defense (3,200) isn't an awful play either.
Lions Players I will Consider: Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, T.J. Hockenson, Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones, Prater/Lions Defense
Packers Players I will Consider: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Geronimo Allison, Graham/Lewis, Crosby/Packers Defense
Sunday Night: Pittsburgh @ L.A. Chargers
- One question going into this game is the health of Hunter Henry (5,600) as he may be back for this game. Even if he plays, he will be on a snap count so I wouldn't go there at this price and lack of snaps.
- Melvin Gordon (9,000) is expected to get more touches this week, at the expense of Austin Ekeler (9,200). This could be getting closer to a 50/50 split, and Pittsburgh has allowed over 100 yards rushing a game. Playing either one is probably a smart move, and even playing both together isn't an awful strategy if you think the Chargers want to focus on the run exclusively.
- Last year in this game, Keenan Allen (10,400) went 14/148/1 in this matchup last year. Allen has seen a decrease in targets the past two weeks, so expect him to get going again in this spot. The Steelers have below average DVOA rankings against each WR position, so even taking a look at Mike Williams (7,000) or Travis Benjamin (2,200) isn't awful. I would rather take Williams for his touchdown upside than Benjamin, who would be a big play threat only (and he did score a 40+ yard TD in this game a year ago at $200).
- Philip Rivers (10,200) has put up three 20+ fantasy point games so far this season. He's in play if you think he throws a lot. If you think the Chargers keep this on the ground, then don't use him, especially in any lineup build with BOTH Gordon and Ekeler.
- Delvin Hodges (8,400) didn't look terrible in his relief appearance last week against Baltimore, and will get the start this week for the Steelers. The Chargers are bottom 10 in both pass and rush DVOA stats. This is about as cheap of a price as you will see for a starting QB on a showdown (without a mid-week injury), so the value is there: I just don't know if he can get to the 16+ points we would need to justify playing him.
- James Conner (9,400) will see a lot of work now that Jaylen Samuels is out. Hodges may even throw short to Conner as a safe, check down option. Conner is easily the safest play against the 25th ranked Chargers run defense and will be a viable captain choice, even in Chargers-heavy lineups.
- If you are looking to go contrarian, a Steelers stack could be ok, especially if you think the Chargers score a bunch on the ground and Pittsburgh must throw to get back into the game. Juju Smith-Schuster (8,800) and Diontae Johnson (6,400) are the top 2 WRs, but would be MME tournament plays for me only. I may have some interest in Johnny Holton (200, or this week's Byron Pringle), as he did see 33% of the snaps last week and is likely to slot into the WR3 role with James Washington out.
- I'm not thrilled about either kicker or anyone else on the Steelers. I do have a lot of interest in the Chargers Defense (6,200) against a rookie QB making his first career start on the road. The tight ends also intrigue me, as Vance McDonald (5,400) should also be a popular target for Hodges. If Hunter Henry doesn't play, Virgil Green (1,200) is a TD flyer for the Chargers. Of course, Mr. "Sick of This", Lance Kendricks (400, you will know this reference if you listen to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Game Day with Matt Camp and Joe Dolan) is always capable of stealing a TD as well.
Steelers I will Consider: James Conner, Johnny Holton (Pringle Recency Bias), Vance McDonald, Diontae Johnson
Chargers I will Consider: Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Chargers Defense, Philip Rivers, Mike Williams, Green/Kendricks (if Henry is out)