I just realized that these showdown pictures I insert aren't coming across as easy to read, as the image is very small. If you look below the pictures, you will see two links that say "View Image." They should link you to a easier to see picture.
Winning Showdown Lineups: Week 10 Primetime and Week 11 Thursday Night
Monday Night: LA Chargers vs Kansas City (in Mexico City)
- I'm surprised they didn't price up Patrick Mahomes (12,000) higher than the usual maximum price. He looked good last week against Tennesee and the Chargers Defense is 21st against the pass. The question isn't whether you should play him or not, but whether he should be your captain. My answer is depends what you would do with the extra salary saved. I think he's the highest point scorer on the slate, so will be my favorite to be captain. But if looking to fade in any way, Mahomes didn't throw for 300 yards in either game last year, throwing for 4 TDs in the first game and 2 TDs in the second game.
- Every time KC is on these showdown slates, I fade Tyreek Hill (10,600) because of his price and volatitility. And it hasn't worked out well for me. He exploded in the first game last year but was not a necessary piece in the second game. If looking to fade or can't fit him in, Travis Kelce (9,000) is a great alternative, though the concern here is that the Chargers are 6th against TEs. There's always merit in taking some shots on Sammy Watkins (6,000), MeCole Hardman (4,800), or DeMarcus Robinson (4,400). Watkins always has crazy upside but a low floor. Robinson sees more targets than Hardman, but Hardman seems to find a big touchdown play more often than not.
- The Chargers have also been vulnerable against the run and pass-catching running backs. Damien Williams (7,400) saw 75% of the snaps last week, but will that sustain with LeSean McCoy (5,200) not having a "rest week?" I like both as multi-lineup options, and if we get word one will see the primary touches, than I have no issue going to that guy.
- The Chiefs have been pretty good against the pass, ranking 5th in that category. Philip Rivers (8,800) has a lower floor than many realize, as he's just simply a better real-life QB than a fantasy QB. With some of the Chiefs pieces at similar prices, I think I would rather go with them than Rivers. It's a similar concept for Keenan Allen (8,400 as KC is 7th against WR#1s and Hunter Henry (8,200) as KC is 5th against TEs. Mike Williams (5,800) doesn't have a great matchup, but had his breakout game of his career last year against the Chiefs on that Thursday night.
- Where I am most interested in using the Chargers is in the running game, as the Chiefs are 31st against the run. Melvin Gordon (8,600) has seen 20+ touches in each of the past two weeks and looks to be a bit underpriced. For me right now, it's him or Mahomes as captain. Austin Ekeler (6,600) is in play from a floor perspective, with upside to score 20+ if Chargers have to pass a lot. Playing both is acceptable here.
- I don't have interest in either defense, but could use both Harrison Butker (4,000) or Michael Badgley (3,800). Both are averaging over 10 points a game and the altitude of Mexico City may allow for longer field goals.
Chargers I am Considering: Gordon, Ekeler, Williams, Badgley
Chiefs I am Considering: Mahomes, Hill, Watkins/Robinson/Hardman, Damien Williams, Butker
Sunday Night: Chicago @ LA Rams
2018 results from these two teams. This game was played in Chicago.
- Before I can even get to the game, there are significant injuries to monitor leading up to this game. David Montgomery, Gerald Everett, and Tyler Higbee are all Questionable and game-time decisions. Their status will impact this game with values and opportunties abound for their replacements if they miss.
- As you can see above, this was a double-defense game. In fact, it's the lowest fantasy point total for the two years I've been tracking the regular season showdown games. This year's game has a total of 39.5 on a Saturday night, so there is some merit to using both defenses together or separately. The Rams Defense are at 6,200 and the Bears Defense sits at 5,400. I would prefer the Rams due to facing Trubisky, though I have no issue using the Bears against Goff, who does traditionally struggle against defenses that can get a lot of pressure on him.
- I am a Bears fan so I watch this team and feel like I know them more than any other team. Mitchell Trubisky (8,200) has not been good at all this season, though I don't think it's all on him (play calling has not been great). When he was freed up to make plays last week against Detroit, he showed flashes of 2018 and why he was a top pick. I just wish it was more consistent. His floor this year is single-digits, while his ceiling is about 20. Playing him is playing a Bears onslaught or expecting a shootout. He is playable, but don't think you need him.
- Tarik Cohen (5,000) may be the highest owned player in this game if David Montgomery (9,000) is inactive. With only Ryan Nall (200) being the only other active RB on the roster, Cohen should get the start and be active in the pass game. The run defense for the Rams is elite, 3rd in DVOA vs the Rush, while they are 18th against pass-catching RBs. I think Cohen makes for an excellent captain consideration, regardless of whether Montgomery plays. If Montgomery plays, I would still avoid him as I would worry about snap counts and potenitally being limited. If inactive, Nall is playable at 200, though I can't imagine him scoring more than 10 points, even with a TD. He would be more of a last player in your lineup type of play.
- When Trubisky throws, he looks frequently at Allen Robinson (9,400). The issue with Robinson is can he get to 15-20 points in this matchup against former teammate Jalen Ramsey? Robinson does have the advantage according to PFF, so he could end up being a high scorer. The Rams are average against other WRs, so taking a chance on Taylor Gabriel (6,600) or Anthony Miller (2,000) is viable. I would rather take Miller at the discount, even if Gabirel is outsnapping him. I don't see 4,600 difference between the two. If you need value, either TE for the Bears (Ben Braunecker at 800 or J.P. Holtz at 600) could round out a lineup. Holtz did see more snaps last week though Braunecker did see the touchdown. I think I would rather go with Nall if punting a Bears player if Montgomery is out, as the Rams are 12th in DVOA vs Tight Ends.
- Jared Goff (10,000) continues to show some significant home/road splits, and being at home is good. But, he still has been inconsistent, and his floor is similar to Trubisky: but, with a much higher ceiling. The Bears are 7th in DVOA against the pass and are #1 against WR1s. I would think this would probably apply more to Robert Woods (8,600) than Cooper Kupp (10,600). Kupp should be a focal point of the Rams offense, after being shutout last week. But, I can't say I love the matchups for anyone, including Josh Reynolds (4,800). Kupp would be my play based on expected volume and having the highest floor/ceiling combination.
- The one weakness for the Bears in the pass game is the Tight End. It's why I think the injuries to Gerald Everett (8,000) and Tyler Higbee (1,800) are significant. Everett's price is a bit too hgih for my liking, and I would only play Higbee if Everett is out. But then again, on this slate, there may be so much value that 8,000 for Everett makes sense, as 10-12 points from him could be in a winning lineup if this game is as low scoring as last year.
- Since the Bears have lost Akiem Hicks, the way you beat this defense is with the run game. The problem for the Rams is that we have seen inconsistent use of the run game. In a rarity this year, we did see Todd Gurley (8,800) get over 70% of the snaps last week, though it resulted in only 12 carries. Like Everett, the price feels too high but in a potential low scoring game like this, Gurley could be in the winning lineup if he scores a TD. I don't think I want to use Malcolm Brown (2,400) or Darrell Henderson (1,200), though they would be viable in MME builds.
- Low-scoring game potentially? Give me either kicker. I wouldn't play both kickers, so give me Greg Zuerlein (3,800) and his 50+ yard FG success over Eddy Piniero (3,600).
Bears I will Consider Using: Cohen (regardless of Montgomery's status), Robinson, Trubisky, Miller/Gabriel, Nall (if Montgomery is Out), Bears Defense
Rams I will Consider Using: Kupp, Goff, Gurley, Higbee/Everett (Higbee only if Everett is Inactive), Rams Defense, Zuerlein