Week 9 Primetime and Week 10 Thursday Night Football Winning Lineup Information
Monday Night: Seattle @ San Francisco
- UPDATE #1: After I posted this initally, I realized I overlooked one player coming back from injury: Kyle Juszczyk at 600. There is talk that he may see some snaps at TE in Kittle's absence. He makes for a very good value play, and one that could go overlooked coming back from injury. He has also showed up in winning showdown lineups before, so I will be looking at him as an option. It may be too risky to play both him and Dwelley in a lineup, but it's probably not the worst thing either.
- I'll start with what should be a very popular value play in Ross Dwelley (2,000). Some of you are probably asking: who is Ross Dwelley? He will be the starting tight end for the 49ers on Monday Night, as George Kittle is Doubtful. Dwelley saw 4 targets last week with Kittle playing, and caught all 4 for 29 yards. 2k for a starting position player is massive in these showdowns, and I don't actually hate the idea of him at captain, if you want to get really risky. Seattle is 25th in DVOA against the position, leading to more reasons why Dwelley should be in the lineup.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (11,000) hasn't always had to do much this season; however, in their last game at Arizona, we saw him step up to produce nearly 32 fantasy points. I expect Seattle to keep this game close, forcing Garoppolo to make plays in order for the 49ers to win. The Seahawks are 21st against the pass, so it is a friendly matchup.
- The 49ers can be a tough team to figure out where the production is going to be coming from. But, it's become slightly easier since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders (10,200). Sanders played nearly every snap last week and caught 7 of 9 targets. The Seahawks have also struggled with WR1s, making Sanders a Captain consideration for me. After that, Deebo Samuel (4,800) has emerged as the WR2 in this offense, seeing around 65-70% of the snaps each week. He has consistently seen around 5 targets a game, and at this price, would be someone you can use to save money or even throw in at captain and hope he hits big, while being able to get in the other expensive pieces. If needing a last person into a lineup scenario, you can always take a flyer on the rest of the WR corps for San Francisco, as they all have potential to randomly hit. (If you are playing a Goodwin, James, Bourne, or Pettis, make sure they are active, as it is likely one of them would be inactive).
- Tevin Coleman (8,200) continues to outsnap Matt Brieda (6,200), and both are viable plays. On the season, the 49ers have run more than they have passed (56% of snaps have been running plays). Breida is probably my play here, simply because Coleman's price is still accounting for his 4 TD game against Carolina two weeks ago and I may need the 2,000 in savings. Seattle is 22nd against the rush so both could produce, though the other one being present does limit the opportunity for each one to have a big game.
- The one weakness the 49ers Defense has shown is that they are 20th against the run. And, with Seattle, we know they want to run the ball if at all possible. This means Chris Carson (8,600) is squarely in play, as he is almost a lock to see around 15 touches, with upside for 20+. I don't even think Rashaad Penny (3,000) is the worst value play in this spot, though his floor is quite low.
- If it's a big game, it's hard not to like Russell Wilson (11,400), as he is on the short list for MVP. Yes, he could not score a lot if Seattle runs all the time. However, no matter what Seattle wants to do, they have thrown more this season than they have run. He also has the highest upside of anyone in this game, as evidenced with his 42 point outing last week (not even his highest on the season). If playing one of the two quarterbacks, it's Wilson for me. Though, I think you could play both with some of the values out there or if you want to play a cheap captain.
- The 49ers pass defense is #1 in the league and they are good. I think some of this though comes from not having to played a lot of great offenses. But, it's still enough that I'm not sure I want to pay for Tyler Lockett (10,400), though he is tempting after seeing 18 targets last week. If you think Seattle has to throw 40+ times, and has some success, than Lockett is in play in Seattle stacks. I think he will be lower owned than D.K. Metcalf (7,800), who is finally seeing some positive TD regression. Josh Gordon (5,400) is an intriguing price, but I'm not sure I want to play him when I don't know what his role will be. Gordon would be a MME tournament play for me. I don't have much interest in Jacob Hollister (4,600) who did catch two touchdowns last week, and saw 80% of the snaps. However, that feels more like an outlier (the production; obviously a 2 TD game for him is a huge outlier) than a normal occurrence.
- I'm not interested in either defense, with minimal interest in Jason Meyers (3,800) for Seattle.
Seahawks I am Considering: Wilson, Carson, Metcalf, Lockett (In Seattle Heavy Stacks Only), Meyers
49ers I am Considering: Garoppolo, Sanders, Breida/Coleman, Dwelley, Samuel
Sunday Night: Minnesota @ Dallas
- For those of you who like trends, this is the 4th time the Cowboys have played in a primetime game this season (I know, big surprise). The only player to be in the winning lineup all three times from Dallas? The Cowboys Defense (3,400). Since the start of Week 3, that have forced a turnover in all but one game, and have had multiple sacks in every game. Minnesota has only allowed 12 sacks all year and Cousins has only thrown three intereceptions. However, the Dallas Defense does make for a nice cheap play if you need to round out a lineup.
- When I look at the PFF WR/CB matchups, both Amari Cooper (10,000) and Michael Gallup (7,600) are in the Top 15, with favorable matchups. Cooper has shown some massive home/road splits, while Gallup's are present, but not as drastic. If Cooper misses this game (seems unlikely as of Saturday Night), Gallup would be a must play and would probably end up as my captain. If Cooper is active and there is no word of setbacks or limitations, he's on my short list at captain, considering he has put up nearly 30 DK points at home this season, and Minnesota is weakest against WR1 (22nd in DVOA). Randall Cobb (5,600) is seeing 6-8 targets a game and would get a boost if Cooper misses. I still think he is viable here, but he would probably need to score a touchdown to hit value.
- Dak Prescott (10,600) is consistently putting up games in the low 20s. That should play here, but my issue is whether we can get away with 22-24 points at this price, with some of the other options available in this game. His big point games were earlier in the season, which is my concern. Of course, the other option to consider for Dallas is Ezekiel Elliott (10,800) and has scored a TD in all but two of the games. I think I would prioritize Zeke over Prescott in this spot, as Zeke's 46% red zone market share is hard to ignore.
- I was a bit surprised when I looked at Kirk Cousin's (10,400) recent road games and that he has thrown for 7 touchdowns in the last two road games in Detroit and Kansas City. Dallas is league average against the pass, so it's not a bad spot, but I don't know if I would play him over Dak.
- The most expensive player here is Dalvin Cook (11,600) who is coming off his second fewest fantasy point performance of the season last week (and that was still 15 points). I won't talk you off of Cook if you want to play him, but my concerns are that Ameer Abdullah (1,800) and Alexander Mattison (2,600) will take some snaps away. I don't have interest in either of the two complimentary RBs unless it's a MME build. If choosing one, I think I would take Elliott over Cook, just for savings and snap share. But by no means, is Cook a bad play. Along with Elliott, he has the highest floor in this spot.
- Adam Thielen has been ruled out, which opens up targets for the receiving options. Without Thielen, we saw Stefon Diggs (9,400) put up some big games, and then do very little last week. He's a boom/bust option for me. I think my favorite way to go here is Olabisi Johnson (4,600), who saw 83% of the snaps last week. He hasn't put up huge numbers, but the opportunity is there. I don't have much interest in Laquon Treadwell (2,800) unless he was my last player in. He did see five targets last week, but hasn't done much else prior to that. Kyle Rudolph (4,800) draws the best matchup as Dallas is 31st against TEs. He has also scored in two of his past three games, making him a nice value play for me. I wish Irv Smith Jr. (4,200) was cheaper, but he has been seeing 1-2 more targets a game than Rudolph. I think either one is playable, but I don't think I would play both in a lineup.
- Both kickers are in play, but I don't have any interest in the Minnesota Defense (3,200).
Vikings I am Considering: Diggs, Cook, Johnson, Rudolph/Smith, Cousins, Bailey (REVENGE GAME!!!)
Cowboys I am Considering: Cooper, Elliott, Gallup, Prescott, Cowboys D, Maher