Week 12 Primetime and Thanksgiving Day Winning Showdown Lineups
Interesting to see all solo winners on Thanksgiving. The winner of the Saints-Falcons Showdown also placed 3rd, with the only change being Thomas instead of Kamara in that lineup. $330,000 minimum (probably had other cashes as well) to end Thanksgiving Day is pretty awesome.
Monday Night: Minnesota @ Seattle
- The toughest matchup for any side in this game looks to be the Seattle run game against Minnesota's 4th ranked run defense. I think this is reflected in the price for Chris Carson (8,400) who is coming off a game with two fumbles. I think he is fine, but I think I prefer spending elsewhere. I wish Rashaad Penny (5,400) was a little cheaper, as he did see 46% of the snaps last week. The matchup is tough here so I don't see myself going here, but he is someone I would have exposure if doing MME builds.
- Russell Wilson (10,800) has averaged 10 points more at home than on the road. We usually like him in games where there will be a lot passing, and this feels like one of those games. Following a similar path, Tyler Lockett (9,600) has averaged 13 more points at home than the road. Add in the point that Minnesota is 25th against WR1s this season and Lockett is looking like a really nice play, and possibly someone to consider at captain. If you can't afford him, D.K. Metcalf (7,600) can be used in both spots as well. He doesn't have the extreme home/road splits as Lockett, but has seen more consistent targets. Everyone else is a dart throw with Josh Gordon (4,400), Malik Turner (2,000), and David Moore (1,600) being the other options. They each saw about 20-30% of snaps a week ago, so figuring out which one hits will be a tough task. Finally, Minnesota is ranked 2nd against tight ends, so Jacob Hollister (4,800) isn't someone I want to play.
- For Minnesota, the big news here is that Adam Thielen has been ruled out. This will squarely put Stefon Diggs (9,800) in play, as Seattle is 23rd against WR1s. He has shown some home/road splits but has the best WR/CB matchup according to PFF for the Vikings. When Thielen missed last time, the WR2 was Olabisi Johnson (2,600), who did see six catches on nine targets in their last game. He represents the best value to me, though the matchup isn't ideal for him. Josh Doctson was released, meaning Laquan Treadwell (1,200) is the only other WR available for the Vikings on DraftKings. This leads to an interesting lineup build, as you can punt with one player and feel decently comfortable. Even a Stars and Scrubs approach where you play both Treadwell and Johnson would be viable. Both Kyle Rudolph (6,600) and Irv Smith Jr. (3,600) can be used, though Rudolph is more TD dependent than I would want in this spot.
- I do like the receivers, so I can also go to Kirk Cousins (9,000) who feels underpriced for a QB playing as well as he has been lately, outside of his "revenge game" vs Washington. In the last seven games, he has thrown for multiple touchdowns six times and gone over 300 yards passing in four of those games.
- For me, I think the question is who do I pay up for on the Vikings: Diggs, Cousins, or Dalvin Cook (11,800). Seattle is 7th against Pass Catching RBs and is 17th against the run. It is a fine spot for Cook, but as of now, I think he ranks behind Cousins and Diggs for me on initial thought, considering price and matchup. If we had less value, maybe I could look at Alexander Mattison (2,200), but think I like Johnson/Treadwell better in this price range.
- I don't have any interest in the defenses and very minimal interest in the kickers. If I end up playing one, it would be Jason Myers (3,800), as he has put up double digit points in three of his last five games.
Vikings Players I will Consider: Cousins, Diggs, Cook, Treadwell/Johnson (can use both in same lineup)
Seahawks Players I will Consider: Wilson, Lockett, Metcalf, Myers
Sunday Night: New England @ Houston
- This is the 5th time the Patriots have shown up on an island game for showdown purposes. In the three wins for New England, it was a 5-1 Patriots onslaught in the winning lineups. In the loss to the Ravens, it was a 3-3 split. For both Texans contests so far, Hopkins was the Captain for both.
- I don't have the best feeling about the Texans in this game, as New England is #1 vs the Pass, and #9 vs the Rush. Even in positional matchups, the Patriots are Top 10 vs every position. The only team to beat the Patriots was the Ravens and Deshaun Watson (11,000) does profile similarly to Lamar Jackson, and should provide a solid enough of a floor in this game. One concern is that he only has four touchdowns total in his past three games. However, if Houston is to stick around in this game, it will be Watson doing the damage.
- After Watson, it gets tough to figure out. DeAndre Hopkins (10,400) will see plenty of Stefon Gilmore, and possibly a safety. I would suspect Belichick will game plan to take Hopkins away like in the past. Hopkins best stat line in 6 career games against New England was 8 catches for 78 yards. He has never scored against New England either. At this price, it's a play on talent and high floor in a lower scoring game. I don't think I want to play Will Fuller (8,400) though he certainly has the upside to be relevant on this slate if he has a long touchdown play. Kenny Stills (4,800) would be my receiver of choice, but I'm not sure I want to play him either. He hasn't been seeing many targets, but could produce enough to be somewhat relevant in this slate.
- I haven't been able to figure out if it will be a Carlos Hyde (6,200) or Duke Johnson (3,200) week, as there doesn't seem to be a pattern of usage. Both probably top out at about a 15 point ceiling, with a 3-6 point floor. If that's the case, give me Duke Johnson for 3,000 less, in a game I think Houston will be throwing to come back from behind. If you do think Houston leads or it is a back and forth game, Hyde can definitely be used. I would only use one of them, as I don't see how both show up in the same winning lineup.
- While I don't like the individual matchups for the Texans, I can find some I like for the Patriots: but of course, they spread the ball all around, making it tough to know whose week it will be. My favorite play is Julian Edelman (10,800) as he has seen double digit targets in six straight games, and draws a matchup against Houston's bottom 10 pass defense. While I have interest in him, I don't know if I have interest in Tom Brady (11,200) who hasn't surpassed 20 fantasy points in five straight games. If I'm this high on a receiver, I usually try to include the QB. But Brady feels overpriced to me for his current production.
- The rest of the Patriots receivers comes down to the health of Mohamed Sanu (7,400) and Phillip Dorsett (6,400). I don't have much interest in either one, as Sanu hasn't done much outside of the Baltimore game. If I had to play one, it would be Sanu. If either or both miss, I would go Jakobi Meyers (5,400) over N'keal Harry (5,200), though both would be in play. Meyers had 9 targets last week, while Harry did score on his only catch of the game. People will remember that and I think we could see Harry over owned if someone misses. The one area Houston has been good against is the tight end, so I don't think I'm going to Ben Watson (3,000) in this spot.
- Houston ranks 13th against the run, but 25th against pass catching running backs. This would usually have me excited to play James White (6,800) but he has been quiet the past two weeks. New England is smart enough to know Houston has a weakness against pass catching backs, so I can see White become more targeted this week. Behind him, Sony Michel (8,000) is non-existent in the pass game, and is very touchdown dependant. He would need two touchdowns to be relevant in this game. Rex Burkhead (3,400) is a salary saver, though he would need a touchdown to be in the winning lineup.
- I have no interest in the Houston Defense or Ka'imi Fairbairn. Kai Forbath (4,000) intrigues me a little, as NE kicker has had 3 and 4 attempt games throughout the season. Make sure you use him, and not Nick Folk, who was released earlier this week. Finally, DeShaun Watson does take a lot of sacks, so using the Patriots Defense (5,000) is not a bad idea. They may not be as good as they were a month ago, but I think they should be able to produce in this spot.
Patriots I am Considering: Edelman, Sanu, Meyers (if Sanu or Dorsett miss), White/Burkhead/Michel (no more than 2), Forbath, Patriots D
Texans I am Considering: Watson, Hopkins, Hyde/Johnson (Only One), Stills