(Cover Photo Credit to USA Today)
Week 11 Primetime and Week 12 Thursday Night Football Winning Lineup Information
Click on the "View Image" to better see the lineup information from the past week. One thing I noticed is that you would have to go back about a month to the Dallas-Philadelphia Sunday Night game to find the last time a winning lineup had more than $2,000 of salary left on the table. I think this is due to DraftKings becoming more efficient in their pricing and a lack of value popping up. Something to keep in mind when building; you don't have to leave a ton of salary on the table.
Monday Night: Baltimore @ L.A. Rams
- We have had this situation a couple of times this year, but the first decision you will have to make is what to do with Lamar Jackson (13,600). He's higher priced than the usual $12,000 maximum price tag. If you want to play him at Captain, he's $20,400 (40.8% of your salary cap). The tough part here is when looking at this game, I maybe see one other person with the capability of getting close to Jackson's upside. If looking for a comparison, Russell Wilson did rush for 32 yards and put up 268 and 4 touchdowns against this Rams team earlier this season. I think there are enough values that you can play Jackson in your lineups, and even as captain if you are so inclined.
- In a normal slate, you could play Lamar by himself. In Showdown, that may be tougher to do. The problem with the Ravens is that they don't have a primary option that we can rely on. The Rams rank 3rd against the Run and 17th against the Pass. The Ravens do rotate their receivers and no one receiver sees a clear #1 WR share. For what it's worth, Seth Roberts (1,200) did see the most snaps last week, but only one target. I think many will go towards Marquise Brown (8,000) as he's the big play receiver. He should see Jalen Ramsey, and is only seeing 4-5 targets a game. The price feels a little high for me, but certainly understand you using him, hoping his big play ability hits. Willie Snead (3,200) and Miles Boykin (1,600) can also be used but like the other WRs, are dart throws to save salary and hope you hit the right one.
- I don't think I have any interest in the running backs. I would suspect Mark Ingram (10,200) could go low owned at this price and tough matchup. He will see more carries than Gus Edwards (2,600), though he's only seeing about 3-4 more snaps than him each week.
- Here's a game for you: Rank the Ravens tight ends in snap count percentage. It goes Nick Boyle (3,000), Hayden Hurst (800), and Mark Andrews (9,200). Andrews is the TD threat here and with all of the value on this team, is certainly someone you probably can play. I don't mind Boyle, as he is seeing about 3-4 catches a game, with some TD upside. Hurst is an ok punt play, but I worry if he can get to 6-7 points.
- The Rams are an interesting case here. The Ravens are 3rd against the pass, but 25th against the rush. We did see Todd Gurley (8,800) see 25 carries last week, and has seen 74% and 75% of the snaps the past two weeks. It looks like the Rams may have saved Gurley the first half of the season and are now willing to ride him. The usage and matchup puts Gurley squarely in play.
- I don't know what's going on with Jared Goff (8,400) but he has not thrown a touchdown pass in the past two games. He is usually better at home and the price is more than fair here. I don't know with his recent form if I can go here, but I think a Rams offensive stack could be lower owned than it should be.
- The Baltmore secondary has improved since getting Marcus Peters from the Rams (Revenge Game!). The only Rams receiver I have interest in is Cooper Kupp (9,800) though his production has taken a hit with Goff's struggles as of late. He's the only other person I think has enough upside to potentially catch Jackson, but is a bit of a tough ask here. If you're going to attack Baltimore, it can be done with the Tight End. Gerald Everett (4,800) went from 14 targets two weeks ago to one target last week. I do think the price is fair and is a good enough value to fit into lineups.
- Since I'm not in love with the Rams Offense, I do have interest in the Ravens Defense (5,600) as they have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games and can generate enough pressure to get sacks as well. Greg Zuerlein (3,800) has been quiet lately but always has big game potential with his 50+ yard FG ability. Justin Tucker (4,000) is as solid as they come, and should be a safe option for at least 7 points in this spot, with upside for double-digits. We have seen a 2 kicker winning lineup once this year (four times last year) so it is possible to use both, but I'm not sure that's ideal here.
Baltimore Players I will Consider: Jackson, Brown, Boyle/Andrews, Ravens Defense, Tucker
Los Angeles Players I will Consider: Gurley, Kupp, Everett, Zuerlein
Sunday Night: Green Bay @ San Francisco
- Injuries to monitor: Matt Breida and Robbie Gould are Doubtful. Emmanuel Sanders, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel are Questionable. As of 11:00 pm EST on Saturday Night, it does sounds like all three will be active. But this is definitely a situation to monitor when the inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. I will try to update this based on the information that comes out, and will probably retweet the 49ers inactives as it comes across on Twitter.
- Green Bay is 5th worst against the run, and with the injury to Breida, I think it opens up some value. Tevin Coleman (9,000) and Raheem Mostert (4,200) split carries evenly last week with Coleman unsurprisingly having the "better" game and has been more consistent all year. So Coleman is more likely to be the higher scorer, but I don't think it's a lock. Mostert could have his week here and using him opens up salary. I don't even mind using him at Captain and then playing anyone you want for the rest of the lineup, and hope Mostert is a top Point/$ play.
- Green Bay has improved their pass defense and Jimmy Garoppolo (9,800) has only gone over 20 fantasy points three times (twice against Arizona). This doesn't feel like a spot I want to pay up for him. The Packers are also in the Top half against all of the WR positions, and with the injuries for Emmanuel Sanders (8,800) and Deebo Samuel (8,200), I don't know if I really want to go there. This includes all of the other receivers for the 49ers as well. If building MME lineups, you can sprinkle any of them in. However, if there is one area to attack the Packers through the pass, it is the tight end position. If George Kittle (8,400) is active, that's where I will go for the 49ers passing game. If inactive, I can pivot down to Ross Dwelley (5,200), though that price does feel a bit high on him.
- Everything I said about Green Bay's Defense can probably be said about San Francisco: Good against the Pass, a little vulnerable against the Run. Aaron Rodgers (10,000) has either been above 30 points (3 games) or below 20 points (7 games) this season. I think many people will just auto-lock him into a lineup, but I don't think he is someone you must play. I would play him over Garoppolo, but I am not forcing him into my lineups. If I do, I'll probably throw Davante Adams (9,400), who has seen double-digit targets in both games since coming back from injury. If I had to play another Packer WR, it would be Allen Lazard (3,200) as he has seen the best ratio of snaps and targets in the two weeks since Adams came back.
- The 49ers are 1st against Tight Ends and pass catching RBs. That eliminates Jimmy Graham (4,400) for me. I do have interest in Aaron Jones (9,600) and Jamaal Williams (6,600). The 49ers have given up production on the ground and we've seen Jones have some monster games recently. Williams has also been putting up consistent double-digit fantasy point games as well. I don't mind playing one or both running backs in a lineup, with Jones being the better captain choice simply due to his TD upside.
- I don't have any interest in either defense or kicker. If I had to play one, I would take a flyer on the Packers Defense (3,000) as Garoppolo is more likely to turn the ball over than Rodgers. And the price isn't terrible.
Packers I will Consider: Jones, Williams, Adams, Rodgers, Lazard, Packers Defense
49ers I will Consider: Coleman, Mostert, Kittle/Dwelley, Sanders (if news says he won't be limited)