Week 13 Primetime Showdown and Week 14 Thursday Night Winning Lineups
View image Pricing and Positions
View image Ownership and Scoring
With about 9 minutes to go in the Thursday Night game, I had a co-lead in the $5 Single Entry and was tied for 3rd (with about 110 of my closest friends) in the big $10 game. Then, Amari scored, Gallup got over 100 yards, and Prescott went over 300 yards. I dropped a bit, but still was about 12.5x ROI for the night. Not too bad.
Monday Night: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
- When setting lineups for this game, take a look at the weather. Forecasts are showing rain and potential 15 mph winds. If that is the case, you may want to lean on the run games and defenses more, with tight ends being viable for the short passing game. I am writing this up assuming the weather isn't that impactful.
- Injury News: The following players are OUT: Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, and Nelson Agholor. Jordan Howard is Questionable and possibly unlikely to play.
- With Daniel Jones out, it means we see Eli Manning (8,200) start again at QB. He did play two games this season, and threw over 40 times in each game, but only having one touchdown in each game. I don't think I can trust him in this spot, though the price is low enough that getting 20 points is somewhat possible. Saquon Barkley (10,600) doesn't look right or something is different with him this year. He has not been producing enough to make me want to pay this price. If this game is a deluge of rain, I could use him. But outside of that, I think he will likely be a fade for me.
- Regardless of what I do with Eli Manning, I do have interest in the Giants receiving options. Golden Tate (8,000) gets a revenge game against the Eagles, and has been putting up a nice floor. It would probably take a touchdown for him to hit over 16 points and get over value. Sterling Shepard (7,200) has had less of a floor but had been seeing 9 targets until his 6 target game last week. Darius Slayton (6,800) has the highest ceiling of the three Giants receivers but also probably the lowest floor. All three have very favorable WR/CB matchups according to PFF, so mixing and matching them in a non-rain factored weather game is fine. If I had to rank them, I'll probably go Tate/Slayton/Shepard. Price may dictate my selections though. I do have interest in Kaden Smith (2,200) as he has seen 14 targets the past two weeks. At that price, he is probably the best cheap value in this game.
- The Giants rank 30th against the Pass, and have been generous to all types of receivers outside of tight ends. Carson Wentz (11,800) got back on track last week with 3 touchdowns and over 300 passing yards against Miami. The Giants should be just as good of a matchup so Wentz is definitely in play. Alshon Jeffery (9,200) draws the 2nd best WR/CB matchup of the week according to PFF and is coming off a 30 fantasy point game last week. I don't see the Giants slowing him down, as they rank 30th against WR1s. I expect Alshon to be popular, but a very viable captain option.
- No Nelson Agholor means you can go a couple of ways if you are targeting the Eagles pass game. The most obvious way would be Zach Ertz (9,400) who had seen three straight games of double-digit targets before last week's game. The Giants have defended the tight end position well but have not exactly faced a lot of top tight ends. Ertz can be used, as well as Dallas Goedert (4,800) who has been averaging 6-7 targets a game recently. The other way you can go is to take a chance on one of the unproven receivers. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (2,000) and Greg Ward (200) did see about 40% of the snaps last week with Agholor. They both should be seeing more targets this week and are both viable. Ward has out targted Arcega-Whiteside the past two weeks, so he would be my preferred choice. If you want to get real bold, use either one as Captain and you probably can play anyone else you want.
- Miles Sanders (8,600) saw 20 touches last week and 87% of the snaps. Jay Ajayi (1,600) isn't cutting into his workload quite yet and unless this is a complete rain impacted game, I have no interest in Ajayi. Sanders' ability to catch passes and run the ball has me quite interested in him, and can be considered as a captain option as well.
- With potential wind and rain, I don't think I want either kicker. I don't even think I would want to play the Giants Defense (2,800). However, I would have interest in the Eagles Defense (5,800) regardless of the weather against a depleted Giants team with Eli at QB.
Giants I am Considering: Tate/Shepard/Slayton (No more than two), Smith, Manning, Barkley
Eagles I am Considering: Jeffery, Wentz, Sanders, Arcega-Whiteside/Ward, Eagles Defense, Ertz/Goedert (Only One)
Sunday Night: Seattle @ L.A. Rams
- The first matchup was on a Thursday Night, with Seattle winning 30-29. A quick summary: Goff threw for 395/1/1, and Wilson threw for 268/4/0. and ran for 32 yards. Gurley didn't do much on the ground but had 2 TDs. Chris Carson had 118 yards on the ground. Cooper Kupp and Gerald Everett went over 100 yards receiving in the game, with Kupp adding a touchdown. Seattle had Metcalf, Lockett, Moore, and Carson score through the air.
- In a surprsing turnaround from last year, Jared Goff (9,600) has averaged 3.5 fantasy points less per game at home than on the road this year. He also has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game, so there is some upside concerns with him. I think he's an ok play, but I'm not prioritzing him into my lineups. Cooper Kupp (9,200) is my favorite play for the Rams. After a tough two game stretch against Chicago and Pittsburgh, he has seen six catches in the next two games, with a score last week. PFF has Kupp with the best WR/CB matchup of the three receivers, with Brandin Cooks (6,000) being the next. Cooks only has 12 catches in his last six games, but this price feels way too cheap on him. Robert Woods (8,600) has seen 38 targets in his last three games, including a whopping 18 last week. He did see 9 in the first matchup, catching 5 for 48. He's a volume play for me, but I may take a chance on Cooks for upside and the discount. Finally, Seattle gave up massive production to Gerald Everett in the first meeting. While Tyler Higbee (6,600) probably won't see as easy of a matchup as he had against Arizona last week, I think there is merit in playing him with 14 targets over the past two weeks. He's priced up due to last week, but is playable. He's safer than Cooks, but Cooks has more upside.
- Seattle is 18th against the run and Todd Gurley (8,200) is being used more and more each week. He has 18 and 25 carries in two of his past three games (with a random 6 carry game against the Ravens mixed in there), and it appears the Rams plans to rest him until this point of the season may be paying off. Add in a couple of catches in the pass game, and Gurley gives you a decent floor, with 20+ point potential.
- Russell Wilson (10,600) is an intriguing decision this week. He is underpriced for his production on the year, but he's been 8 points better at home than on the road. That said, he did put up big performances in Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Add in the Rams being 3rd against the rush and it seems to be a good spot for Wilson to produce again. I do think home/road splits can be telling sometimes, but I'm not letting that hinder myself from playing Wilson. That 3rd ranked defense, combined with a near 50/50 split the past two games has me slightly down on Chris Carson (8,400) and Rashaad Penny (7,000). In their defense, the 50/50 split was due to Carson fumbles against the Eagles, and an injury that kept him out a little bit last Monday Night (Still got over 100 yards rushing in that game). Penny has been the better TD producer the past two games, but we know that can be highly variant. I don't mind using either one, with Carson my preferred play. Playing Penny is more of a matchup based play with the Rams ranking 22nd against pass-catching RBs. However, I am not prioritizing them into my lineups.
- For all the success I had on Thursday Night, I did not have that success on Monday Night, as I got a nice fat zero points from my captain, Tyler Lockett (8,800). He's only had two games this year that would hurt you on this slate if he repeated those performances. And neither of those were against Jalen Ramsey. I may just avoid that and pay 800 less for D.K. Metcalf (8,000), who has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games. He would be the receiver I prefer as I don't really want to play any of the other receivers for Seattle, unless they were a last player in my lineup play. I do have some interest in Jacob Hollister (4,800) as he has put up double digit points in three of his last four games. If feeling bold, he makes for an interesting captain choice.
- I don't think I have much interest in either Defense, though Seattle (4,000) has been forcing multiple turnovers in their games as of late. If looking at kickers, I always have interest in Greg Zuerlein (3,600) who did make three field goals in the first matchup, and always has 50 yard + range to make hime worthwhile.
Seahawks Players I am Considering: Wilson, Metcalf/Lockett (only one), Hollister, Carson/Penny (only one), Seahawks Defense
Rams Players I am Considering: Kupp, Gurley, Goff, Cooks/Woods (Cooks for upside, Woods for floor), Higbee, Zuerlein