Week 15 Primetime Showdown Slate Winning Lineups
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A reminder that there will not be a Week 17 Showdown Slate Article for the Sunday Night game next week between San Francisco and Seattle.
Monday Night: Green Bay @ Minnesota
The main injury here is Dalvin Cook being Out. Alexander Mattison is most likely to be out as well, so I'll write this up assuming Mattison doesn't play.
- Let's get right to it. Mike Boone (9,000) will be highly popular. Green Bay is 25th in DVOA vs the Rush and Boone was a popular pick up in season-long leagues this week. He did average over 4.0 yards a carry last week on 13 carries and has shown flashes in the preseason. One concern is that he may not be heavily involved in the passing game; something that could go to Ameer Abdullah (2,200). Boone did outsnap Abdullah 22-15 last week, and while he's expected to be the starter, Minnesota is unlikely to give him 70-75% of the snaps. I think Abdullah is in play, especially if you think this turns into a shootout or the Packers get ahead. For me, Boone is a solid play, but at 9k, I don't think he's a lock that many will assume he is. This may not be a bad spot for a strategic fade. Finally, if you needed a true punt, C.J. Ham (1,000) has been seeing a couple of catches the past few games. He doesn't need to do much to hit value, but I don't know if you can realistically win a showdown slate with someone having 3-4 points.
- The question here is how much will Minnesota have to pass? Despite throwing 30+ times in recent games, Kirk Cousins (10,200) hasn't reached 20+ fantasy points in three straight games. What helps him here though is that he should have a healthy set of receivers with Stefon Diggs (9,600) and Adam Thielen (8,600). Thielen should see more snaps in his second game off the injury. He really does feel too cheap for me here, and is my preferred option. I don't think I would look at any other receivers, but will look at the tight ends, as Green Bay ranks 28th against the position. Irv Smith (3,000) is my choice here as he is seeing a similar number of targets as Kyle Rudolph (6,400) with 2-3 a game, and did play more snaps than Rudolph the past two weeks. Rudolph is probably the higher upside play; but for 3,400 less, I personally would rather take my chance on Smith.
- Green Bay should be somewhat predicatable when it comes to targets and ownership. Aaron Rodgers (10,400) and Davante Adams (11,400) would be a natural duo. Rodgers has gone six straight games of not reaching 250 passing yards. And in only one of those games (@ Giants), did he throw for multiple touchdowns with 4. In that same span, Adams has seen double digit targets all but one time (vs Washington) and is finally scoring touchdowns: something he didn't do earlier this season. If only playing one of the two, I would go with Adams, but would probably try to find a way to get both into a lineup. Outside of Adams, the only receiver I could consider is Allen Lazard (5,400) as he's seeing the second most snaps in this WR corps. You can take a chance on the others or tight ends if you want, but that feels more of a 20-lineup+ build type of play.
- Minnesota ranks 4th against the rush, but only 16th against pass-catching RBs. Aaron Jones (10,800) has been seeing about 60% of the RB snaps, while Jamaal Williams (5,200) has seen about 40% of the snaps. Jones has been the better producer recently, and always has massive upside, as evidenced by a couple of earlier games this year. However, there is no way I'm playing him over Rodgers or either Viking WR at cheaper prices. Williams' floor is about 3-4 points right now, but does have paths to getting to 10+ fantasy points, at a much cheaper discount than Jones. If I go here, I'm playing Williams, who I believe is the slightly better pass catching back of the two as well.
- Both quarterbacks combined have thrown for 7 interceptions all season. Both can escape sacks as well, so I don't have any interest in either defense. Dan Bailey (4,000) has six field goals in the past two games and is 1 point better at home. I would rather play him than Mason Crosby (3,800) who doesn't have double-digit points in his past few games and has been about 2.5 worse on the road.
Packers I will Consider: Adams, Rodgers, Williams/Jones (Only 1, with Williams my preference), Lazard
Vikings I will Consider: Thielen, Diggs, Cousins, Boone/Abdullah (Prefer 1 only, but could play both), Smith, Bailey
Sunday Night: Kansas City @ Chicago
SUNDAY UPDATE: 7:00 EST
LeSean McCoy is inactive for the Sunday Night Game. This does put Damien Williams in play at a nice price of 6,400. I don't even mind him at Captain to be able to fit in some of the more expensive players in this game. Spencer Ware and Darwin Thompson are also now a little more viable. Though all three will see touches, ranking based on price and expected usage, I would rank them Williams, Ware, and Thompson. I don't think I would play more than 2 of them in a lineup, with a preference of only playing one.
The Chiefs have the division won, but need to continue to win and hope New England somehow falls in Week 17 to Miami to get a bye week in the playoffs. They also need to keep winning to avoid dropping to the 4 seed. The Bears have been eliminated from the playoff hunt, but they it doesn't seem like they are in evaluation or tank mode. So, I'll write this straight up.
- The best matchup DVOA wise is for the Bears RBs against KC, who is 30th against the rush. Problem is David Montgomery (7,400) has not been producing much on the ground. He is essentially spliting snaps with Tarik Cohen (7,200) who has been putting up better numbers due to his pass catching ability. Expect about 15 touches for each, with my preference being Cohen.
- Mitchell Trubisky (8,800) feels underpriced for putting up four straight games of 20+ points. He always carries massive upside but a lower floor. The value for me here is too much to pass up and he'll be on a short list of captains for me. PFF has positive matchups for both Allen Robinson (9,800) and Anthony Miller (8,200). Miller draws the better matchup according to DVOA and has seen double digit targets in two of his past three games. Robinson has produced 20+ fantasy points in his past four games. Pairing one or both with Robinson isn't a bad idea. If punting, Riley Ridley (1,000) or Javon Wims (400) could be used, but I think both are more desperation plays. I have no interest in the tight ends.
- I'll keep the KC running game short: Though the Bears are a bit vulnerable here, I don't think I have any interest in any of them, as they are essentially running a three-man committee, based on who is healthy. Damien WIlliams (6,400) is back and if he gets at least 50% of the snaps, he will be worth a play. LeSean McCoy (4,200) is a hope for a TD play, and could be used to round a out a lineup.
- Many people, including me, will be looking at the Chiefs passing game. Patrick Mahomes (12,000) finally got over 300 yards last week and maybe is showing signs of returning to his normal self. I do respect the Bears pass defense (7th in DVOA) so I don't think you have to play Mahomes, since he is so expensive. Of course, if you can afford it, he's a fine play. Instead, I will have interest either in Tyreek Hill (11,000) or Travis Kelce (10,800). Chicago has been average against TEs, but watching this team every week, speedy receivers can burn this team. I prefer Hill over Kelce for that reason. The other options are viable here for the Chiefs between Sammy Watkins (5,600), Mecole Hardman (3,600), or DeMarcus Robinson (2,000). Robinson is my favorite punt in this game, as he is seeing over 50% of the snaps each game. The floor is near zero, but opportunities could be there. Watkins is seeing the second most snaps but is hit or miss. Hardman is a TD or bust type of play. I could see him scoring here against the Bears defense (see comments on Tyreek Hill) but the floor is extremely low.
- I could see playing the Chiefs Defense (4,800) in the hopes bad Trubisky shows up. I also have interest in Harrison Butker (4,000) as he has put up multiple 10+ fantasy point games. I won't be playing the Bears Defense (2,800) due to the matchup and the fact they aren't forcing turnovers or getting many sacks.
Chiefs I will Consider: Hill, Kelce, Mahomes, Watkins/Hardman/Robinson (no more than one), Butker
Bears I will Consider: Trubisky, Robinson, Miller, Cohen, Wims/Ridley (as a punt).