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I mentioned this on the podcast, but the Wednesday Update may look a little different this season. I will always include something, but depending on the news flow and thought changes, the update may have a lot of information some weeks, and only a little bit other weeks. Also, my schedule on some Wednesdays is a bit busier than it was the past couple of years. Some of the updates may not come out until 10-11:00 pm EST. If you have a specific question, feel free to contact me on Twitter, @skeeterrobinson, as I will see that sooner.
Rain does not appear to be a concern, but wind could play a factor this week. Friday-Sunday, winds are expected to be around 20-25 mph, with gusts around 30 mph. It seems very consistent for all three days, and with this being a no-cut event, there isn't a tee time advantage to be had. But, if you are between two golfers at a similar price point, factoring in their performance in windy conditions may be a good tiebreaker to use.
As we predicted on Monday's podcast, the trio of DJ, Rahm, and Thomas are all going to be highly owned, leaving Schauffele as someone to pivot to in the 10k+ range if looking to differentiate a lineup. Gary Woodland is the likeliest player to be the highest owned this week. In the 6k Range, there isn't much ownership with the exception of Lanto Griffin (20-25%) and Adam Long (around 20%). Usually, this is a time to fade those two; but in a 33-person field, you may have to go here. Just make sure you're not playing one of them with BOTH Woodland and JT/Rahm/DJ. Or if you do, make sure you have someone very unique to differentiate a lineup, or are leaving at least 300 salary.
- We had some confusion on the Monday podcast as to whether or not Nate Lashley was going to play this week. The red "O" has been removed from his name on DraftKings and he is being shown as having a tee time on Thursday morning. Everything appears to show that Lashley will be playing this week.
- I am only playing one lineup and it will have only one player above 10,000. That player will not be Dustin Johnson. As much as I like him and his price, I forgot how much he struggled at the end of the season last year. He was negative in SG: Approach in four of his final six events, and was negative in SG: Putting in all six of those events, with some very bad numbers in the final 2 playoff events. His higher ownership combined with his putting struggles on Bermuda is enough for me to get off of him and go to JT/Rahm. I haven't decided which one I will play. I will be waiting until Thursday morning to see if one of the two is signficantly higher owned. If not, I think JT is my preference just due to the discount.
- I am fading Gary Woodland due to ownership and putting. He is still a pretty good value and will not surprise me if he gets another Top-3 finish this year. It's more of a game theory play really, as his price should be a little higher. But, the biggest negative is his putting on Bermuda Greens. When I look at his SG: Putting on Bermuda from different ranges between 4 and 100 rounds, he is bottom five in this field in that category in every single timeframe. That is enough of a concern for me to avoid using him this week.