Favorite Plays by Tier
The American Express: PGA West (Nicklaus and Stadium Courses) and La Quinta CC
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
Nothing to worry about for this week. Low to mid 60s for a high, minimal winds. Even if there was weather, there would be no tee time wave advantage with everyone teeing off within 2 hours of each other. But with no wind, we don't have to worry about how players do in the wind this week.
Ownership
There seems to be some consenus among ownership this week. There are two golfers who appear that they may be heading towards the 25% ownership range: Sungjae Im and Russell Knox. Others who may be around 20% (in no particular order): Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey, Matthew Wolff, Vaughn Taylor, Brian Harman, Harris English, and Charles Howell III
Other Notes
- I didn't like looking at the ownership trends as they include a lot of golfers I like this week. I am not on Im simply due to price and ownership now. My two biggest decisions come down to Harman vs Knox, and Wolff vs Scheffler. Outside of Knox, I don't really get any ownership discount on them. It is worth a reminder that just because a few players you like are trending towards being popular, doesn't mean you have to completely avoid them. Just pair them up with a lower-owned pivot or leave salary on the table. My lineup this week may be leaving $500 on the table (had one build that has 1,400 left over, but moved off of that combination).
- As I was digging deeper into picks, one thing I heard Pat Mayo mention on his podcast was that a lot of shots come from short to medium wedges. So I looked at the past 24 rounds for Proximity from 75-100 yards and 100-125 yards. I included 125-150 as well. Here is who ranks in the Top 50 in all three ranges: Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari (51st from 75-100 but close enough!), Abraham Ancer, Vaughn Taylor, Kevin Na, Brendan Steele, Brian Stuard, Cameron Tringale, Harold Varner III, Ryan Armour (Top 10 in each category), Kyle Stanley, Russell Henley, Stewart Cink, Tom Hoge, Cameron Percy, Charles Reiter, and Tim Wilkinson.
- After doing the wedge analysis, I was very interested in Ryan Armour, especially since he rates out very well Tee-to-Green and well above average in Birdies or Better and DraftKings Points. There are t woreasons I ultimately didn't use him: Bottom 35 in Putting and not a very good course history here (Only one made cut in four starts, with the made cut being a 66th). I do think he is a good value at 7,000 if you want to go there. I am just more of a balanced build this week and why I'm not using him.
- I mentioned this in the podcast, but if you are looking for players who have done well since 2018 on mutli-course events, check out my Twitter account (@skeeterrobinson) and look for a retweet from Moose (founder of Fantasy National). I will tell you I did use that retweet as a basis for a couple of my picks and tiebreakers between two golfers.
Good luck this week in all of your contests and be on the lookout for my football Showdown Slate article.
Course Ranks (#1 being Hardest)
2019
- Stadium Course: 40/49, played 1.762 Strokes UNDER Par
- Nicklaus Tournament Course, 48/49, played 2.942 Strokes UNDER Par
- La Quinta CC, 49/49, played 3.282 Strokes UNDER Par
2018
- Stadium Course: 36/51, played 0.819 Strokes UNDER Par
- Nicklaus Tournament Course: 50/51, played 2.555 Strokes UNDER Par
- La Quinta CC, 51/51, played 3.169 Strokes UNDER Par
2017
- Stadium Course: 30/50, played 0.412 Strokes UNDER Par
- Nicklaus Tournament Course, 39/50, played 1.256 Strokes UNDER Par
- La Quinta CC, 49/50, played 2.365 Strokes UNDER Par
Opening Notes
This is a weird tournament, and the first of three tournaments in the next four weeks where multiple courses are used. This is also a Pro-Am, where each pro will have an amateur partner for the first three days. There is a rotation of courses so the cut will not take place until after Round 3 on Saturday. Each player will play each course one time Thursday-Saturday. The normal cut rules apply here (Top 65 and Ties will play Sunday). If you want to, take a look at some past results for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am to see how players do there with an amateur partner. If you are playing single-round showdown contest, or the weekend contests, you may want to focus your plays each day on those players playing at the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta CC. As you can see from above, they are among the easiest courses on tour each year, and provide the best scoring capabilities. There is only ShotTracker at the Stadium Course, where everyone that makes the cut will play their final round at on Sunday.
