2019 Regular Season Showdown Slate Summaries
View image (Ownership and Scoring)
View image (Roster Construction)
The images above are the summaries from every Thursday, Saturday, Sunday Night, and Monday Night game this season, and the averages from those games. In the offseason, I will look at this more closely to see what changed from 2018, what stayed the same, and what can we learn from it.
Wild Card #2: Tennessee @ New England
- The first question I think you will have to decide is what to do with Derrick Henry (12,000). He's put up at least 25 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games (Yes, I'm rounding up for one of them that had 24.9. I don't think that's impacting you greatly). New England did give up some big yardage to Joe Mixon a couple of week ago, so that would make you think Henry could do something similar. But other than that, the Patriots Defense has been stellar this year. I think Henry is someone you want to play; it's just whether you want him at captain or not. I don't think I will, but that's a game theory move. The true game theory play here is to fade Henry at what should be 75%+ ownership. I don't hate the move, as if he only gets 15 or so points, he probably won't be a part of the winning lineup.
- The rest of the Titans are going to be more speculative plays. Ryan Tannehill (10,800) continues to be extremely efficient, but that doesn't seem like something that would work great against the Patriots. A.J. Brown (9,800) has been making big plays and may be a little more popular than usual since Stephon Gilmore got beat by DeVante Parker last week. I still like Parker in this matchup, and think the Patriots will make sure someone other than Brown beats them. Instead, I think we can look at the other receiving options for the Titans: Corey Davis (4,600), Jonnu Smith (4,400), and Tajae Sharpe (2,000). If ranking them in order of preference for me, I would rank them Smith, Davis, Sharpe. I have minimal interest in the #RevengeGame narrative for Dion Lewis (3,200), as the Patriots do allow production to pass-catching RBs. But, I don't know how much Lewis will be on the field. He's more of a last player to fill out your roster play for me. I don't have any interest in the Titans Defense (4,200) or Greg Joseph (3,800).
- The best matchups in this game go to the Patriots passing attack, as the Titans are 21st against the pass, and Bottom 5 in DVOA against WR1 and WR3+WR4s. Though he has not been producing much as of late, I still have a lot of interest in Julian Edelman (9,400), who should be relided upon as we saw for much of this season and last year in the playoffs. The other receivers are hard to rely on and are nothing more than dart throws. They aren't producing enough to have any confidence but I'm sure one will be viable. If I had to choose one, I guess it's N'Keal Harry (5,800) as he is seeing increased targets each week. I don't have any interest in Tom Brady (10,400) as he just isn't getting to 20+ points consistently enough to justify his price.
- The running backs for the Patriots are a mess as always. I personally always lean James White (8,200) since he is active in the passing game. However, I think Sony Michel (7,000) is a bit underpriced as he has put up double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. We also know the Patriots will rely on him this time of year. Rex Burkhead (5,200) has been pretty effiicent in two of his past three games, despite seeing the fewest amount of snaps of the three. I think you can use one or two of the backs in a lineup, but not all three. If I'm ranking them when factoring in price, it goes Michel, White, and Burkhead in that order for me.
- I think I would rather play Nick Folk (4,000) than the Patriots Defense (4,800), as the Pats defense will probably be a little overowned due to their seasonal performance. Folk does have 12 points in two of his last three games, and a repeat of that should end up playable in this game.
Titans I am Considering: Henry, Smith, Davis, Brown, Tannehill, Lewis
Patriots I am Considering: Edelman, Michel, White, Burkhead (no more than 2 RBs), Folk, Harry
Wild Card #1: Buffalo @ Houston
- I do like the Buffalo side of this game better. Houston is Bottom 10 in DVOA vs the pass and rush this year, giving the Bills some nice matchups. Josh Allen (12,000) is surprisngly the higher priced QB. We haven't seen the massive upside from him like we did last year. But, his floor of about 15-17 points should play in this lower scoring game. He's not someone you have to play in your lineups, but should be played if focusing on the receivers. I like Cole Beasley (8,600) slightly more than John Brown (9,200), but think both are playable and can be used in the same lineup. Beasley has averaged 3 points more than Brown this season, though Brown is the one who has 30+ point potential. Houston is 14th against WR1, while ranking 24th against WR2. This is why I lean Beasley.
- Houston also is 27th against pass-catching RBs. Devin Singletary (9,600) is the RB1 in this backfield, and did see 96% of the snaps in Week 16 against the Patriots (71% in Week 15). He is due for some positive touchdown regression, as he's seeing the touches needed. This matchup is also much easier than his past few (Patriots, Steelers, and Ravens). He's on my short-list of captains for this slate.
- The nice thing about Buffalo is that it's a pretty limited distribution of touches. That unfortunately does make them expensive and limit the value opportunities. Outside of Dawson Knox (3,400) or Frank Gore (1,800), there isn't much value I would consider. Even with Gore, you're hoping Week 16 was an outlier and that one of his 5-8 touches is a touchdown. I don't have any interest in Stephen Hauschka (4,000) but do like the Buffalo Defense (4,600). The Bills are slightly above average in sacks, while the Houston Offensive Line is below average in sacks allowed. I wish they were a little cheaper, but don't mind going to the Bills Defense.
- I think this is a tough matchup for Houston. I have enough respect for Tre'Davious White that I don't want to pay up for DeAndre Hopkins (10,800). I don't mind playing him if you want to go here; but I just worry about whether he can get 20+ points to pay off this salary. Deshaun Watson (11,600) could hold a little more value here as the Bills can be had on the ground, and Watson has put up 35+ rushing yards in his last three games. But, I think that's where his value is. The passing yards won't be there, and without that, I worry about him getting 2-3 touchdowns through the air. Depending on the status of Will Fuller (6,600), you can always take a shot on him or, if he's out, a play on Kenny Stills (6,400). Don't go chasing some of the cheaper WRs for Houston because they had good games last week. Remember; the Texans sat Fuller, Watson, and Hopkins. I don't mind either Darren Fells (2,800) or Jordan Akins (2,200), as the Bills are "easier" to attack with tight ends than wide receivers.
- If Houston is going to win this game, their running attack will have to come through. Carlos Hyde (7,200) would be the main beneficiary, and if you think Houston wins this game, he is someone to consider as a potential captain. He feels somewhat safe for 8-12 points, but would need 100 yards or a TD to push him more towards the 15 we would need at this price point. Duke Johnson (5,400) has much more upside, but a lower floor. Buffalo is "only" league average against pass catching backs, and he is seeing enough carries to make him a viable play.
- I don't have any interest in the Houston Defense (3,600) but do have interest in Ka'imi Fairbairn (3,800). I can see Houston moving the ball a little bit but not being able to convert them into touchdowns. We've seen Fairbairn have some big games in 2018 and this does feel like a spot he could be busy. I'm not forcing him into any lineups, but as a last player into a lineup, I don't mind it at all.
Bills Players I am Consdiering: Singletary, Beasley, Brown, Allen, Bills Defense
Texans Players I am Considering: Watson, Johnson/Hyde (no more than 1), Hopkins, Fells/Akins, Fairbairn
