Playoff Showdown Contests involving the 49ers and Chiefs.
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Final Game of 2019 Season: San Francisco vs Kansas City
SUNDAY UPDATE
This is more just going to be some various thoughts and things to think about as you finalize your lineups.
- The two pieces of news that we have heard involves the running backs. Tevin Coleman was not on the final injury report for the 49ers, and will be active for the game, barring a setback. What his playing time looks like though is sitll unknown. If we see Jeff Wilson active for the 49ers, it probably means Coleman isn't going to play much. But even if Coleman is active and Wilson is inactive, it doesn't mean Coleman is a lock to assume the touches. It will probably be Mostert still, but I don't think taking a chance with Breida or betting on a healthy Coleman is the worst move in this slate. As a one lineup person, I am not playing Coleman, but would consider the other two.
- The other running back news came out yesterday was with the Chiefs plan to make LeSean McCoy inactive for the game. If this is the case, Darwin Thompson is a worthwhile punt at 1,800. He played 11/69 snaps in the AFC Championship, so it is a thin play (1 carry, 1 target). But, if you are trying to make yourself unique, he's one that should allow you to do so.
- One punt play that is getting some attention is Blake Bell at 800. He has played 30 offensive snaps in each of the past two games, including a touchdown in the Divisional Round game. He does open up salary and allow you to pay up for everyone else you want. I may end up using him as a punt in that range. Of course, like everyone else in this range, his likelihood of scoring 0 fantasy points is high.
- I mention Blake Bell as a potential punt play as a TE2 for the Chiefs. I think many will try to apply the same logic to the 49ers and go with Ross Dwelley. After all, he had a couple of big games without George Kittle earlier this season. However, Dwelley isn't even seeing the 2nd most TE snaps on the team right now. That would be Levine Toilolo and his 2 catches for 10 yards on the season. By no means am I telling you to ply him: However, if you are trying to get extremely unique, he would be the backup TE for the 49ers I would play, not Dwelley.
- It feels like the captain ownership is going to center around Mahomes, with Hill, Kelce, Mostert, and Kittle being the next highest. This leaves Jimmy Garoppolo as a very intriguing captain selection. If you think this game is a shootout or that KC gets out to a big lead, forcing the 49ers to throw, Garoppolo becomes someone you need to get some shares of at captain. His 12,000 captain price is not expensive at all and quarterbacks are usually the highest scoring positional player. Getting a QB at this price for captain and at low ownership is quite tempting. He doesn't have to be the highest scoring player on the slate for this to work out: But if he's among the best point/dollar plays, it's worth it.
- Finally, make sure your lineup is correlated and tells the story of a game flow. I'm not sure playing a combination like Garoppolo and Mostert in the same lineup makes a lot of sense. Yes, you are giving yourself a high probability of having all of the 49ers touchdowns. But, as we've seen, when one goes off, the other typically doesn't. It's not like the Chiefs, where we've seen Mahomes and Damien Williams both produce in the same lineup. Also, if you're going to play the 49ers Defense to try and be different, playing Mahomes in that lineup is counter-productive. As long as your lineup tells a story that is likely and plausible, you should be fine.
Thank you to everyone for reading this article this week and all season. Sometime in the offseason, I will do a 2019 showdown review article to see what trends there were and if there is anything we learned that can help us in 2020. Until then, give DFS Golf a try and listen to the podcast that James Adams and myself do each week. There will be an article up here on the site every week with additional information to help you. And if you are into fantasy baseball, the draft software is available over at insiderbaseball.com.
Good luck later today and enjoy the final meaningful game until September.
Original Article
This is going to be a wild contest, as it's a Millionaire Maker on DraftKings in a Showdown format. With plenty of casuals playing, it will take quite a unique lineup to win the $1 Million. I wouldn't be surprised if 1 yard is the difference between winning 1st and finishing outside of 1st. I personally would not go crazy on this, due to the amount of luck you will need to end up with the optimal lineup and the amount of variance you will have to accept if going for the top amount. There will be a very thin play that will end up hitting and be in the winning lineup. Other thing you need to consider: Leave a decent amount of salary on the table or choose a lower-owned captain. Those will give yourself a chance to be unique.
- The Tevin Coleman (6,400) injury situation is going to play a big factor in this slate. If he plays, how much would he be able to play? I expect Raheem Mostert (9,400) to be popular regardless of Coleman's status, and probably more so if Coleman misses or is limited. He's coming off a career game of 220 yards, 4 touchdowns, and draws arguably the best matchup of anyone in this game. The Chiefs were 29th in DVOA against the Rush this season. Mostert is proably someone you do want to play and may even want to at captain. I did mention in the intro that you have to be willing to accept some variance if trying to win the $1 million. This is where using someone like Matt Breida (3,200) could be viable, especially if Coleman misses. We have seen the 49ers mix up touches at RB this season, so it's not impossible for Breida to end up the guy here. If Coleman misses, you could mix in Kyle Juszczyk (1,200) or Jeff Wilson (1,000) into MME lineups in the hopes that get a TD on a limited touch or two. But by no means are they guaranteed any touches.
- If Mostert doesn't have the best matchup in the game, then it may go to George Kittle (8,400). While KC is 4th in DVOA vs the TE, they allowed the 5th most points to tight ends this season. As we know, Kittle is essentially the top receiving option for the 49ers. He should be quite popular but worth using. I would expect people to go to Deebo Samuel (7,600) as well. He has been a bit quiet in the playoffs, but the 49ers havne't had to rely on the passing game. He should be more active here in a game that probably ends up closer and higher scoring than the first two playoff games. Same thing could be said for Emmanuel Sanders (5,200) who hasn't done anything since the shootout in New Orleans earlier this season. The price seems way too cheap, but he's hard to trust with recent production. Yet, using him at captain should open up salary and be contrarian enough if you can accept his low floor. Jimmy Garoppolo (8,000) has put up 11.22 points TOTAL in the two playoff games so far. I hope this scares people off of him as I think he will have to throw more in this game against the Chiefs. Like Sanders, his floor is quite low at this price: But, I think he's someone you definitely need to consider. Finally, I know Kendrick Bourne (3,400) has a habit of showing up from time to time in games. I think he's a very thin play and would just rather pay up for Sanders unelss Bourne is the last part of my lineup.
- While overall pricing is a little softer than we have seen in the playoffs, they did not go soft on the Chiefs weapons. Patrick Mahomes (12,600) is expensive but probably worth fitting in. We've seen elite Mahomes so far in the playoffs. The hidden part of his game is that he has rushed for over 50 yards in each playoff game so far. Add that to the passing and you see why he is hard to ignore. He's obviously a great captain if you can afford him there and find enough other pieces to fit. As much as I'm on Mahomes, I think I may be off of Damien Williams (9,800). This is a pretty expensive piece for someone who has to face the #1 team against pass-catching RBs. There is hope here as the 49ers were 11th in DVOA vs the Rush, so he could find success. This is just more of a price and matchup concern, as I think he's too expensive for the matchup. You could round out a roster with Darwin Thompson (1,800) or LeSean McCoy (1,400) if you wanted, but they literally have a 0 floor and I'm not sure they will see enough touches to justify the cost.
- Perhaps the biggest decision for most people will be Tyreek Hill (11,000) or Travis Kelce (9,600). The 49ers were 10th against WR1 and 2nd against TEs. We did see DaVante Adams and Stefon Diggs both score as WR1s, and I could see that meaning people go to Hill. I think I like the discount on Kelce enough to go to him, as the Vikings or Packers don't have a similar profile TE to Kelce. Even if you played both with Mahomes, I think you end up with very similar to lineup builds that also go this route, so you will have to probably take a chance on someone very low owned. The receiver with the "best matchup" is Sammy Watkins (7,000) as the 49ers are 14th against WR2s. Watkins did score in the last game: his first touchdown since week one. He's had a good playoffs so far, but is hard to trust. Outside of that, I think you can look at DeMarcus Robinson (2,600) or Mecole Hardman (2,200). I prefer Robinson due to seeing more snaps, but Hardman is the upside play due to his return and big play ability. He also has a near zero floor.
- We have two of the better kickers in the league in Harrison Butker (4,200) and Robbie Gould (4,000). Both have appeared in the winning showdown
