Favorite Plays by Tier
The Honda Classic
PGA National, Palm Beach, FL Par 70, 7,125 Yards
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Weather
Seems like weather hasn't been an issue this year, but appears like it will be a slight issue this week. No rain for the first two days, but wind will play a factor. It's going to be pretty consistent for everyone on Thursday, with 15 mph winds and gusts up to 20. Maybe the last few holes on Thursday will have subdued winds. Friday morning looks like it starts with gusts up to 15 mph, but 10mph or less winds and gusts late morning and afternoon on Friday. I'm not sure if this is enough to greatly impact lineup decisions; however, I may lean slightly to Thursday AM/Friday PM as a tiebreaker if needed. If playing multiple lineups, it wouldn't hurt to stack tee time waves in case one does end up in an advantageous position.
Ownership
As of early Wednesday afternoon, there appears to be some disagreement between Fantasy National and FanShare Sports with ownership projections. Gary Woodland, Billy Horschel, and Harris English are in the Top 6 projected owned on both sites. After that, a little bit of variance. Among other golfers who are nearing the top of these ownership projections (probably 15-20% range, maybe a couple get over 20%), in no particular order, here they are: Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Byeong Hun An, Daniel Berger, and Russell Knox.
Other Thoughts
- I think Fantasy National's ownership percentages kind of told the story of this week: No one was over 20% there, and people just don't know what to make of this event. As it is a very difficult course and not the strongest field, people are all over the place. Even with that being said, I don't think I would choose 6 golfers that are in the Top 20 of ownership projections. Find someone that no one really is talking about (Ex: anyone in the 6k Range not named Tom Hoge) and that should help break up some potential duplication.
- I'm only doing one lineup this week and my main lineup decision is going to come down to some combination of 2 of the following: Rose, Fowler, Woodland, and Horschel. All but Rose have good histories here, but Rose is probably the best player of the group. He also has the lowest ownership of the four, but it's not a significant number to choose him simply on that reason.
- I expect Billy Horschel to be very popular in One and Done. I think if you're towards the top of your One and Done League, this seems like a good time to use him. As someone who is in the bottom 3rd of my league, I don't think I can. I'm not sure who I will be going towards yet, but will be considering Fowler, Rose, and possibly English as pivots. I think Woodland may be another that is popular this week as well.
- Probably the part you are most interested in: James' betting card. He went with Fowler (14/1), Woodland (22/1), Horschel (22/1), Vegas (66/1), List (70/1), Steele (125/1), and Huh (150/1). All with a Top 6 each way. He's been doing quite well with this, so see if you like any of them and tail him. You both could be sweating something come Sunday!
Course Difficulty (#1 is Hardest)
- 2019: 5/49, played 1.016 Strokes OVER Par
- 2018: 2/51, played 2.303 Strokes OVER Par
- 2017: 16/50, played 0.556 Strokes OVER Par
- 2016: 5/50, played 1.768 Strokes OVER Par
Opening Thoughts
I think you can tell from the Course Difficulty that this is one of the toughest non-major events of the year. This will not be a tournament where you will see -15 win. Bogey Avoidance, Greens in Regulation, and Scrambling are among the key stats I'm looking at this week. If you're going to look at Par 4 Scoring, look for it from 400-450 yards, as 7 of the 12 Par Fours fall in that range. It's not the deepest field, as it has lost some star power due to the schedule changes that started last year. However, there is still a nice field of players here, including Koepka, Fowler, Fleetwood, and others. One thing you need to be aware of is that roster lock will be very early Thursday morning, especially for those in the western U.S. I believe it will be something like 6:30-7:00 am EST that they start, so those in the Mountain and Western time zones will probably still be sleeping when it starts. Just make sure your lineups are set come Wednesday Night. Also, like last week, I don't know if I will be doing a Wednesay Update this week. If I don't think I will, i will try to post something Tuesday night, but no promises.
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