Favorite Plays by Tier
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial CC: Par 70, 7,209 Yards
It's summer in Texas with temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Winds are under 10 mph and no rain for the first two days of the tournament. There doesn't appear to be anything weather related to impact lineup selection.
As I mentioned when I first wrote this article, Ownership could impact my decisions, as I don't feel the need to go with a chalky play. Webb Simpson is projected to be the highest owned player, and will not be a part of my lineup (switch my favorite play in the 9k range to Justin Rose). I still like Webb: I just decided before ownership that the highest owned player will not be a part of my lineup. As for other players who are likely to be higher owned, here is who Fantasy National and FanShare Sports are suggesting may be in that tier. There is no particular order for these names:
- Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy.
Spieth was one that James and I talked about on the podcast, hoping he wouldn't get to be the "sneaky play that turns popular". Well, he did. So, for my second change in my favorite plays by tier, I'm changing mine to Jason Day. Outside of Simpson and potentially Im, I don't know how many players well will see get to 20% ownership. It is pretty spread out with no one in the 6k range above 10%. For that reason, a Stars and Scrubs lineup approach may be quite unique this week, and worth doing if multi-entering.
Not only is Jason Day my favorite play in the 8k Tier, but he's my One and Done Pick. There's always risk around Day with his injury history. But, he feels a bit underpriced and may come in around 5-7% ownership. I'll take the talent here. I do wish his approach numbers were better, but he at least was trending positively in that category, prior to the break.
Really, the main reason a few of you are reading this is because James was on fire with golf bets back in February and March, and want to see who he is betting this week. Here is his card (with a Top 6 each way):
- Dustin Johnson (28/1)
- Marc Leishman (40/1)
- Gary Woodland (55/1)
- Corey Conners (125/1)
- Emiliano Grillo (150/1)
- Charley Hoffman (150/1, but you know James is betting him regardless of the odds each week).
Golf looks like it's back, though things will be a little different with majors being cancelled/postponed, tournaments being played at different times of the year, and no fans allowed for a little bit. It will be about 3 months from The Players to the Charles Schwab Challenge but will be nice to see golf back again, and sweat ShotTracker. I have included an initial Tournament History list of anyone who has played this event from 2012-2019. Once the field is finalized, I will try to update it.
I've listened to a couple of podcasts about the return of golf and what to expect, potentially including the Charles Schwab Challenge. With DraftKings running a Milly Maker, I'm sure it will be popular and may fill early. However, as we start back with golf, there are some things you may want to keep in mind until we see how everything goes:
- If this is your first time playing DFS in 3+ months or so, be careful with your bankroll. Especially with the Milly Maker, I think it will be tempting to throw in a bunch of lineups to "make up for lost time." However, there are going to be some other points I'll make that may make you think twice about going in for more than usual for these first few events.
- I don't think I would worry about "recent form." It's been 3+ months or so since most will have played in a competitive event. Yes, a few played in an Outlaw Tour tournament or an exhibition (and expect a slight ownership bump to those players for that reason). However, don't look into that and just because someone was playing well in February doesn't mean it will automatically translate to now. If you want to look at how players play in January, especially if they hardly play at all from the Playoffs until January, maybe you can figure something out. The Sony Open may be a good one to look at if going that route, as it is a simliar yardage and course style to Colonial.
- Speaking of Ownership: It's been 3 months for everyone. If there are players trending towards being really popular (20-25%+), this may be a really good time to fade them. There should be a lot of variance potential here with the long layoff. Finding pivots (without knowing pricing, maybe going from someone like Sungjae Im to Jordan Spieth) may provide a ton of leverage in tournament lineups.
- Tournament History will probably be emphasized more than usual here, since there is no recent form. Don't overweight it though, as that will probably lead you to more chalkier players. Go ahead and use it as a factor, but don't overemphasize it simply because it may be the most convenient stat to use right now.
- One big reason you may want to conserve the bankroll a little bit to is the withdrawal threat for every golfer. If any golfer(s) test positive for COVID-19, they are done for that tournament, even if it's after Round 3 and they are leading. Similarly, someone who has a bad Thursday may decide not to risk a Friday round to lower chances of contracting the virus. Everyone is going to be cautious, especially early on. So, don't be surprised to see more withdrawals than usual with players taking a safer route.
- Finally, a reminder that this season is the first season where it is Top 65 and ties to make the weekend. Also, if you are in any season-long leagues (One and Done for example), don't forget to make your pick.